Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

317
FXAK68 PAFC 300009
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
409 PM AKDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Model agreement has increased confidence that Southcentral will
continue to see a cloudy, generally cool and showery pattern
persist through midweek as a low swings across the southern
mainland. The areas receiving less rainfall today - the western
Kenai and the Copper River Basin - is where isolated thunderstorm
chances were reintroduced into the forecast; as clearing continues
this afternoon, these areas may see enough warming and increased
instability to allow one or two storms to pop up, though this is
a generous forecast. Tomorrow, the same pattern continues, through
a degree or two warmer, with isolated thunderstorm chances
confined to the Copper River Basin and southeastern Alaskan Range.
By Tuesday night/Wednesday, the transient low will drop south
towards Southeast and a brief period of weak ridging (and a brief
glimpse of sunshine) will transit through the region before the
next low pressure moves in for the end of the week.

AB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

A pattern of generally cloudy, breezier, and cooler conditions
continue as a pair of low pressure systems move through Southwest
Alaska and the Bering. The first of which, a weakening,
vertically stacked, low pressure system is transiting across
Southwest Alaska through tomorrow. The upper level vorticity
associated with this feature could bring just enough lift for
isolated thunderstorms over the interior Kuskokwim Delta and
Valley, with about a 10% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. For Tuesday, a slight warm-up for interior Southwest
Alaska as the upper low continues eastward and cloud cover
diminishes behind it. By Wednesday morning, the front of the next
incoming low pressure system will spread light rainfall across the
Southwest coastline, pushing inland through the day.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, stormier weather returns
as a North Pacific low and its front move in through mid-week.
Expect widespread rain and gales along the front. As the low
occludes and moves into the Bering Sea, expect another surge of
20-30 kt winds for Adak and Atka Tuesday and Wednesday on the
backside of the low. Fog may persist over the Pribilof Islands
through Tuesday morning, replaced by steady light rainfall
beginning Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday
afternoon.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

An active pattern across Alaska continues over Fourth of July
weekend. A weak low over the Gulf moves into the Alaska Peninsula
by Friday night. This will decrease cloud cover through out Friday
over Southcentral. An upper level low over the Bering Strait will
bring periods of rain over southwest Alaska, before moving over
the Alaska Peninsula, then the Gulf Saturday afternoon into
Sunday. The low will remain nearly stationary through Monday.
Mostly cloudy with showers are expected for Southcentral and
Alaska Peninsula through the weekend into early next week.

A ridge is present over the western Aleutians, bringing low level
clouds and fog over the Aleutians. Saturday morning sees the
arrival of a North Pacific low entering the Bering. There is
significant model disagreement on the timing of the low moving
across the Aleutians. Saturday night will see a low form off the
front off of the North Pacific Low and progress eastward before
diving southward of the Alaska Peninsula Monday. The North Pacific
low will begin moving eastward Sunday and move south of the
Alaska Peninsula as well Monday night.

-SS

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...periods of rain showers are expected to continue into
Tuesday. There is a chance for occasional MVFR ceilings through
Tuesday afternoon. South to southeasterly winds gusting to 25 kt
expected to continue through late this evening.

&&


$$