Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

624
FXAK68 PAFC 071312
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
512 AM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Thursday)...

Generally expect unsettled weather through Wednesday, with
improving conditions for Thursday. While much of the region will
see at least brief periods of snow/rain today and tomorrow, the
highest precipitation amounts will be along the Gulf coast,
including Prince William Sound. No significant hazards are
anticipated at this time.

Diving into the details... overall, there have been few major
changes since the previous forecast. Kenai and Middleton Island
radars are showing increasing reflectivity as an occluded front
makes its way into Southcentral this morning. The general
expectation is for light snow accumulations this morning for much
of the Southcentral Mainland, with a change to a rain/snow mix or
rain by the afternoon and evening. Light snow accumulations up to
an inch of snow are expected today across the Kenai Peninsula,
with just a dusting of snow farther north for Anchorage and the
Matanuska Valley through mid-morning. Typical downslope areas
like the Western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat Valley will
remain mostly dry through this afternoon and evening as easterly
flow increases. Along the coast, nearly constant precipitation
falling as rain or rain/snow mix will continue through tomorrow.

Another round of light snow and rain is likely between tonight and
tomorrow, but the timing is highly uncertain and will depend on
the placement of an upper low moving through Southcentral. This
second round could bring more widespread showers, though any snow
accumulations will again be limited by the ever-warming daytime
temperatures. Through the day on Thursday, expect gradually
improving conditions as the low exits the area.

-JH/KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A large upper level low with multiple short-wave troughs continue
to transit the Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska. Shortwaves moving
from the Alaska Peninsula north into Southwest Alaska this morning
will bring warmer air to the region, allowing for precipitation in
many areas to transition from snow to rain by late this morning.
As such, the current Winter Weather Advisory or the northern
Bristol Bay coast, including Dillingham west to Togiak, will
remain in effect until 10AM this morning until snow begins to
turn to rain. For the Kuskokwim Delta, periods of snow showers and
reduced visibilities will continue through mid-morning, before
showers begin to taper off late morning/early afternoon and winds
continue to diminish. Thus, the Winter Weather Advisory for the
Kuskokwim Delta will remain in effect until 10AM this morning.

A high pressure ridge moves across the Bering Sea and over
Southwest Alaska Wednesday and Wednesday night, bringing about a
break in precipitation. A front extending off a Kamchatka low
immediately follows the front, bringing rounds of precipitation
and gale force winds to the Western/Central Aleutians and Bering
Sea. The front weakens as it reaches the Pribilof Islands, with
winds diminishing to small craft. Light precipitation will spread
across the Eastern Aleutians and into Southwest Alaska by late
Thursday afternoon.

KM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

High pressure building over mainland Alaska and the southern Gulf
of Alaska will allow for disorganized areas of low pressure and
associated precipitation in the SE Panhandle into near Cordova.
Out west, a front moving over the Aleutian Chain will bring
precipitation and elevated winds to the Bering Sea and Kuskokwim
Delta Friday. Models begin to diverge by the weekend with
increasing uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of
features, but a progressive upper level shortwave pattern will
keep elevated chances of stormy weather for the Bering Sea and
west coast. Forecast high temperatures over southern Alaska look
to remain around average to above average through the period. By
Monday, forecast confidence diminishes with little agreement over
Southern Alaska besides another front entering the Western Bering
and Aleutians.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...Light snow will continue through mid-morning. Ceilings drop
below 5000 ft but will likely be predominantly VFR, as will
visibilities. However, periods of MVFR conditions are possible as
snow moves through this morning. By late morning (around 19Z),
increasing southeasterly winds will lead to downsloping and end
any lingering snow. Southeasterly winds through Turnagain Arm may
gust as high as 20 kt over the terminal this afternoon. However,
based on the track of the Bering Sea low, winds will likely remain
weaker as the core of strongest winds remains over water.

We`re monitoring another round of light snow/rain for Wednesday,
though timing continues to be uncertain. While the next round may
begin as early as 06Z to 09Z tonight, precipitation chances
currently look highest from late tomorrow morning (around 18Z) through
the afternoon.

&&


$$