Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

767
FXAK68 PAFC 311258
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The surface low that brought gusty winds and a wintry mix of rain
and snow to Kodiak Island yesterday is continuing to slowly drift
south and east through the southern Gulf this morning. While the
bulk of the precipitation has come to an end across the island, a
remnant surface trough over the island, combined with bands of
showers moving east to west over the northern Gulf, will allow
scattered snow showers to persist for Kodiak through mid-morning
before skies clear and winds diminish and become more westerly.

For the rest of Southcentral, high pressure will continue to keep
the region mainly clear and dry through the end of the week. A
weak upper-level shortwave will move south from the interior later
today. This feature will allow for development of a weak surface
trough over the northern Gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday,
resulting in an increase in gap winds for typical locations.
Temperatures across the region today will be similar to those
observed yesterday. For Wednesday, temperatures may be couple of
degrees cooler for interior Southcentral in the wake of the
aforementioned upper-level wave.

A frontal system will then approach Kodiak Island and the western
Gulf by late Wednesday, lifting into the northern Gulf for
Thursday. Expect another round of gusty easterly winds across the
Gulf and Kodiak Island along with a mix of rain and snow.

-TM


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) North Pacific low brings precipitation to the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula through Wednesday.

2) Weak ridging remains over Southwest Alaska through Thursday.


Discussion:

1) North Pacific low brings precipitation to the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula through Thursday.

A North Pacific low moves steadily eastward along the Pacific
side of the Aleutians through Thursday. Precipitation at its onset
from Adak to Unalaska will be in the form of rain/snow mix.
However, as warm Pacific air moves northward, snow levels rise and
change the precipitation to mostly rain. This sea-level
changeover to an all rain event occurs late this morning as
temperatures quickly jump above 32 degrees. A trace of snow is
possible before this changeover. As the system`s front moves
eastward to the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday, the low takes a more
southeastward track. Additionally, its front begins to dissipate
as it moves from Cold Bay to Sand Point resulting in scattered to
isolated rain/snow showers into the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday morning. This will keep the sea-level
precipitation as a snow/rain mix through late Wednesday morning.
Widespread snowfall accumulations of an inch are expected through
Wednesday afternoon. High end small craft winds with widespread
gale-force gusts along the front can be expected through Tuesday
before the front begins to weaken Wednesday. Northerly winds
return Thursday across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.


2) Weak ridging remains over Southwest Alaska through Thursday.

Weak ridging moving in from the north, combined with clearing
skies and calm winds, will promote fog development overnight
tonight into Tuesday morning across the Kuskokwim Delta. Elsewhere
across Southwest Alaska, dry and mostly clear conditions expected
through the short-term.


-Johnston

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

By Friday, a low developing along the triple point may form in
the western Gulf, which would promote a more active pattern for
Southcentral Alaska. Easterly winds to increase along the Gulf
coast into next weekend, with precipitation spreading along the
region as well. Some stronger northerly gap winds through typical
locations will remain possible through the period as these systems
track into the Gulf. Temperatures trending warmer and approaching
seasonal averages across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska look
to remain steady through the long-term. There is still some
uncertainty regarding the depth of this low and how far north it
progresses. The pattern appears to remain unsettled for much of
the weekend into early next week, with multiple lows approaching
the northern Gulf and moving along south of the Aleutian Chain.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$