Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

899
FXAK68 PAFC 282333
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
333 PM AKDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday evening)...

While most of this morning has been clear and sunny across the
Southcentral Alaska mainland, cloud cover is starting to build in
as an upper-level trough is approaching the area from the north
this afternoon and evening. Increased cloud cover is all that is
expected from this weak upper-level system with the mainland
remaining dry through the rest of today. One thing that has not
changed are the gusty westerly gap winds through Whittier and
Passage Canal. Winds are currently gusting near 40 mph by the
harbor with 30 mph near the Whittier Tunnel. These gusty winds
should begin to slowly diminish through this evening as the tight
pressure gradient relaxes.

Unsettled weather will head towards Kodiak Island for Sunday
through Monday. The source of this unsettled weather will stem
from a low pressure system in the Bering Sea sending a front
eastward along the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN). A triple-point low
will spin-up south of the AKPEN this evening into early Sunday
morning. This low will then track east-southeast well to the south
of Kodiak Island the rest of the day Sunday and Monday. However,
as the 500 mb trough takes on a more negative tilt, moisture, in
the form of snow, will be pulled back to the northwest over the
Island.

Snow arrives first to the south end of Kodiak Island Sunday
morning and works northward across the rest of the Island through
Sunday afternoon and evening. 4 to 10 inches of snow are expected
Sunday morning through Monday afternoon across the southern end of
the Island from Akhiok to Old Harbor with the higher-end totals
occurring toward Old Harbor. Expect less in the way of snow
accumulation along the Shelikof Strait side of the Island with
Larsen Bay and Karluk seeing about 1 to 2 inches of accumulation
Sunday morning through Monday evening. Expect 6 to 10 inches of
snow across northern portion of Kodiak Island, including Kodiak
City, Womens Bay, and Ouzinkie, from Sunday afternoon through
Monday evening. Therefore, Winter Weather Advisories are in effect
across the entirety of Kodiak Island from 4AM AKDT Sunday morning
through 5PM AKDT Monday late afternoon for the southern zone of
the Island. For the northern zone, the Advisory is in effect from
4PM AKDT Sunday afternoon through 10PM AKDT Monday evening. Snow
tapers off across Kodiak Island through Monday night.

Most of Southcentral will remain dry and feel no effects from
this system. However, the easterly to southeasterly flow coming
around the extreme southern Gulf to northern North Pacific low
will cause some upslope snow showers along the eastern facing
slopes of the Kenai Mountains and along the mountain ranges of
Western Prince William Sound Sunday evening through Monday. The
low pressure system responsible for the bout of snow across Kodiak
Island Sunday and Monday will track farther southeast for Tuesday
with another dry day in store area wide.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Message: A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the
Kuskokwim Coast and Western Capes through 8AM Sunday for snow and
blowing snow reducing visibility down to one half mile at times.

Discussion:

A large but fairly weak occluded low is moving across the central
Bering, as the back edge of its attendant front clears the
Pribilof Islands early this afternoon and nears the Kuskokwim
Delta coast. This front is slowing down as it approaches a
vertically stacked ridge extending from the North Pacific and
northward over western Alaska. The front stalls shortly after
pushing onshore this afternoon into this evening, bringing a
period of southeasterly winds gusting up to 30 mph near the
immediate coastline from the Western Capes up to Toksook Bay
through early Sunday morning. Snowfall combined with gusty winds
for these areas will lead to blowing snow conditions this evening
through early Sunday morning, with a total of 4 to 7 inches of
snow expected through the end of Sunday. Snowfall continues to
spread south across the Bristol Bay coast through Sunday with the
upper level energy and surface low shifting south in the eastern
Bering Sea as the ridge remains nearly stationary over western
Alaska. The Bristol Bay coast is similarly expected to receive 4
to 6 inches of snow, with lesser amounts farther south along the
Alaska Peninsula. Inland areas remain dry through the forecast
period due to the ridge preventing storm progression inland.

Precipitation ends from north to south Sunday night through
Monday morning with Southwest Alaska returning to the existing
weather pattern of mostly clear and dry conditions. An increase in
cloud cover compared to recent conditions as well as a slight
increase in winds will warm temperatures, especially nighttime
lows. The next weather player in the form of a North Pacific low
and its attendant front approaches the Aleutian Chain starting
late Tuesday morning. With adequate upper level support, the
global models show the low deepening somewhat but staying south of
the Aleutians while its front lifts across the Aleutians through
the end of the short term.

-JH/AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The active storm tracks through the long-term period remain south
of the Mainland, with several low pressure systems traversing
eastwards across the North Pacific and into the Gulf. This will
continue to keep much of the Mainland dry through midweek with
most active weather being confined to the Aleutian Chain, Alaska
Peninsula, and Kodiak Island in the form of modest winds and a mix
of rain and snow. By Friday, a low developing along the triple
point may form in the western Gulf, which would promote a more
active pattern for Southcentral Alaska. Easterly winds to increase
along the Gulf coast into next weekend, with precipitation
spreading along the region as well. Some stronger northerly gap
winds through typical locations will remain possible through the
period as these systems track into the Gulf. Temperatures trending
warmer and approaching seasonal averages across Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska look to remain steady through the long-term.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$