Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

543
FXAK68 PAFC 161253
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 AM AKDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A ridge of high pressure continues to build in over the Southern
Mainland with multiple upper-level shortwaves rotating around the
periphery of the ridge over the next few days. Relatively benign
conditions are expected, overall; however there will be periodic
cloud cover, along with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly over the foothills of the higher terrain and
across the Copper River Basin, to deal with each day. The low
currently sitting south of the Alaska Peninsula will slowly make
its way across the Gulf of Alaska and weaken as it moves towards
Yakutat. An associated front is bringing persistent light rainfall
and low clouds to eastern Kodiak Island this morning, with
conditions drying out by later this afternoon as the low exits to
the east.

For coastal locations, expect diurnally driven sea breezes each
afternoon. Low-level marine stratus and areas of fog over parts of
the northern Gulf may push closer to the coast beginning today,
especially from Cordova to the entrance of Prince William Sound to
Chenega. Patchy fog may also develop From Homer to Kenai during
the early morning hours.

KM/TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday morning)...

High pressure will strengthen over the Bering Sea through
Wednesday afternoon, lingering through Friday morning and
contributing to areas of early morning low stratus/fog across the
region. At the western limits of the Bering Sea, a North Pacific
low will push its front toward the Western Aleutians, stalling
short of the Bering Sea through Friday.

Over the Southwest mainland, a weak upper- level low moves inland
Friday morning, bringing colder 850 mb air and increasing the
chances for scattered rainfall. Surface heating across the
mainland will create lift at lower levels needed to develop
clouds and scattered showers. By Tuesday afternoon, showers (50 to
60% chance) and isolated thunderstorms (around a 10% chance) will
form over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Other inland areas will be
drier with cumulus clouds and the occasional shower.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Expect unsettled weather late this week into early next week,
though no major hazards are anticipated at this time. As an Arctic
upper low and a North Pacific low converge on Southern Alaska, the
main concerns will be (a) thunderstorm potential in the interior
and (b) steady rain along the Gulf coast, with some question of
how much moisture will make it inland.

Friday begins with a bit of a col over Southern Alaska due to one
low approaching Southwest Alaska and another departing into
Southeast Alaska; meanwhile, ridges extend over interior
Alaska/Canada and the Bering Sea. As the low moves into Southwest
Alaska through the weekend, increasing vorticity (combined with
diurnal heating under a surface ridge) will likely spur
afternoon/evening thunderstorms across the Southcentral interior.
Southwest Alaska may also see thunderstorms earlier in the period,
but the approaching North Pacific low may bring enough cloud
cover and rain to stabilize the atmosphere as early as Saturday
afternoon. This will depend on the track of the moisture stream,
which is a bit uncertain at this time. Deterministic models show
precipitation moving in over the weekend between a line extending
from Bethel to Sand Point, and another line extending from about
Glennallen to Valdez; which areas will see the most precipitation
remains uncertain at this time, but there`s enough consensus to
suggest overcast and perhaps even rainy conditions for much of the
Southern Mainland by the latter half of the weekend and into
early next week.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, the ridge will remain the
dominant weather influence. While fronts will nudge into the
Western Aleutians (Attu to Amchitka) early on Friday and on then
again on Monday, models suggest the ridge will remain strong
enough to keep these fronts from progressing much into the Bering
Sea. As such, much of the Bering Sea will likely see overcast
skies and areas of fog due to subsidence under the ridge.

-KC

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. A light
southerly wind will become more west-southwesterly today around
10 kt before shifting back to south for later this evening and
into the overnight hours. There is a slight chance for a shower
in the vicinity of the terminal this evening.

&&


$$