Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

423
FXAK68 PAFC 031253
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday evening)...

A ridge of high pressure remains in place over Southcentral,
squeezed between a surface low over the southeastern Gulf and
another surface low moving south over the Y-K Delta. This ridge
will allow for one more mainly clear and dry day across the region
before both clouds and precipitation chances increase moving into
the weekend.

The ridge breaks down and retreats toward the Al-can border for
Saturday, as the overall weather pattern becomes more complex and
uncertain with two upper-level shortwaves advancing toward
Southcentral. The first wave will track from south of the AKPen to
the western Gulf, as the main longwave trough over western Alaska
becomes more negatively tilted. The second wave will then move
from the eastern Gulf toward Prince William Sound as the flow
aloft becomes southeasterly ahead of the main longwave trough.

At the surface, a broad surface trough extending from Middleton
Island to Kodiak Island will strengthen into a compact surface low
east of Kodiak Island by early Saturday. There is good confidence
that the low lifts northward and eventually northwestward toward
Augustine Island, allowing precipitation to move over the
southern half of the Kenai Peninsula.

A second trough over the eastern Gulf will also deepen into an
area of low pressure as it lifts northwest toward Prince William
Sound by early Saturday afternoon. Guidance does diverges on
where this low will eventually go as it passes Middleton Island.
The GFS is currently the quickest with the progression and brings
precipitation into PWS by late Saturday afternoon, whereas other
guidance has the low continuing to linger along the upper
Panhandle between Yakutat and Cordova.

Needless to say, despite uncertainty, a pattern change continues
to be underway. Expect rain/snow mix along the north Gulf Coast
from Cordova to Whittier and along the Kenai Peninsula this
weekend. As temperatures warm during the day, expect
preciptiation-type to be predominantly rain with snow and or
rain/snow mix during the late nights and early mornings. Most
precipitation this weekend should remain mostly confined to the
coast; however, a period of very light precipitation, likely in
the form of snow showers, is possible late Saturday night into
early Sunday morning for the Anchorage Bowl. Stay tuned to the
forecast for updates to the low track for this weekend and updates
to precipitation totals.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

A deep upper level low continues to drift across the Yukon-
Kuskokwim Delta region this morning, focusing areas of light snow
showers extending across the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim
Valley. Low stratus is starting to increase in coverage out ahead
of the low across Bristol Bay as southwesterly flow pulls cool,
moist air northeast from the eastern Bering Sea. Areas of light
freezing drizzle and/or snow showers will be possible across the
northern AKPen and Bristol Bay as weak lift ahead of the upper
level low to the north spreads across the increasing low cloud
cover. Farther west, widespread marine stratus has spread across
the Bering Sea under an upper ridge centered over the western
Bering. A small low near Amchitka is producing easterly winds up
to Small Craft intensity across the Andreanof and Rat Islands, but
is not otherwise affecting surface conditions much. This low will
soon be absorbed by an incoming frontal system later today.

For the near term, things will be rather status quo over Southwest
for the next couple days as the upper level low in place remains
overhead and nearly stationary. Bands of light snow showers will
likely persist as cold air aloft and weak lift around this system
through at least Saturday, especially across parts of the
Kuskokwim Valley/Delta. Chances of snow were increased
considerably with this forecast package for the next 24 hours
given the persistent pattern and light snow already moving across
the area that models are struggling to capture. None of this
snowfall is expected to be all that intense, with perhaps 1 to
locally 2 inches of total snowfall accumulation possible for
northern parts of Southwest through Saturday afternoon. Snow
showers will begin to diminish on Sunday as the upper level low
stretches out along a northwest to southeast axis and begins to
lift back to the north.

Out west, the main story will be the incoming frontal system
associated with a low currently moving south of Kamchatka. The
front will first arrive at the Near Islands tonight, spreading
mainly rain into Shemya as low level temperatures quickly warm
ahead of the boundary. Precipitation and southerly winds up to 35
mph will shift steadily east with the front across the remainder
of the Aleutian Chain through Sunday. Temperatures on the leading
edge of the precipitation shield will likely stay a bit colder,
enough so for the Pribilofs and Fox Islands to see light snow or
a rain-snow mix at precipitation onset late in the day on Sunday.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

Weakening low pressure in the Gulf will keep increased cloud
cover for Southcentral and precipitation chances for the Gulf
coast and portions of Cook Inlet at the start of the long term
forecast period. High pressure over the eastern Bering Sea,
resulting in clear skies for some and persistent marine stratus
deck for others, will nudge east by Monday morning, allowing for
a low pressure system to send a front across the Aleutians and
into the Alaska Peninsula on Monday. A pattern shift towards
wetter and cloudier looks likely by mid-week as upper level
shortwaves rotate in from the North Pacific. Exact timing is
uncertain, but models have trended towards a solution where most
of Alaska sees chances for light to moderate precipitation as
troughing moves over the state Tuesday through Thursday.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$