Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

180
FXAK68 PAFC 022345
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday evening)...

Quite a nice day was experienced across Anchorage and across the
Kenai Peninsula. Clouds are currently building across the
Matanuska Valley with shower chances increasing later this
afternoon and into the evening. A thunderstorm is also possible
across Palmer, although chance is small at 10 to 20 percent. The
story is different across the Copper River Basin where
thunderstorms are currently ongoing. Expect this activity to
continue into the evening hours before the atmosphere stabilizes
overnight. There is a chance that leftover shower activity from
today`s convective episode moves across the Anchorage area late
tonight into early Friday morning; but confidence in this
happening is low.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue Friday afternoon and
evening across portions of the western and northern Copper River
Basin and along the Talkeetna Mountains. Showers will also look to
develop along the Chugach and Kenai Mountains Friday afternoon
and evening. While most showers will stay confined to the
mountains, there is a 30 percent chance that a few showers could
advect off the mountains and into the Anchorage Bowl. If a shower
or two does advect into the Bowl the lightning threat is very low
to none.

A frontal system stretching from Southwest Alaska into the Gulf
of Alaska spreads rain from Kodiak Island Friday evening northward
to the Kenai Peninsula Friday night. This batch of rain
eventually makes it up to Anchorage, the upper Kenai Peninsula,
Prince William Sound, and the Mat-Su Valleys by Saturday morning
providing a soggy beginning to America`s 250th Birthday. This
front will weaken with rain tapering off across Anchorage and the
Mat-Su Valleys by Saturday afternoon. A slight chance (10 to 20
percent) of isolated thunderstorms exists along the Talkeetna
Mountains Saturday afternoon and evening. Any storm that forms
should be confined to the higher terrain of the mountains.

Another area of low pressure just to the south of the Alaska
Peninsula will send another round of rain into Kodiak Island for
Saturday with rain continuing most of the day there. The front
pushes yet another round of rain into the Kenai Peninsula.
Therefore, the break between rain events for the Kenai Peninsula,
especially the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound,
will be almost nonexistent. Downsloping southeasterly flow will
begin to impinge on the western Kenai Peninsula by Saturday
evening which will help to dry things out. Anchorage will also
remain mostly dry Saturday afternoon through the evening hours as
well. Unfortunately, light to moderate rain will rule the roost
across Seward and Prince William Sound for Saturday afternoon and
evening with light rain at times for Homer. Light rain continues
along Kodiak Island, the eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince
William Sound for the first half of Sunday before the low pressure
system pulls away farther east into the central Gulf as rain
begins to taper off Sunday afternoon and evening. Diurnally driven
showers are also likely across the Southcentral interior with the
best chance of lightning strikes once again being across the
northern Copper River Basin and along the Talkeetna Mountains.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Sunday)...

Generally cool and wet weather will persist over the next few
days. Taking a look at satellite imagery this afternoon, a
vertically stacked low has exited eastward from Bristol Bay into
the western Gulf. A new potent upper level low is dropping
southward across the northern Bering Sea, with a weak surface low
and frontal system approaching the west coast of AK. In between
these two systems, weather is mostly dry over southwest AK. There
is quite a bit of cloud cover for coastal areas, while the
Kuskokwim Valley and western AK Range are mostly sunny. This is
leading to development of cumulus clouds, but as of mid afternoon
these clouds have very little vertical growth. Ultimately, expect
isolated to scattered showers, and possible a few thunderstorms
to form in this area, especially as we head to the evening hours.
Meanwhile, high pressure dominates the Aleutians and southwestern
Bering Sea, with areas of low clouds and patchy fog.

There is now excellent agreement in the track of the upper low
currently over the northern Bering. It will track to Bristol Bay
Friday afternoon, linger through at least midday Saturday, then
exit eastward to the Gulf. A leading front will spread inland
across the Kuskokwim Delta tonight through Friday morning, then
continue slowly northeastward (inland) across Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Valley through the remainder of the day Friday. Expect a
brief period of steady light rain just ahead of the front. The
front will then weaken inland, but will be reinvigorated by an
upper level short-wave rounding the low, leading to additional
areas of rain Friday night. Otherwise, extensive cloud cover and
showers along with cool temperatures will be the main theme for
southwest AK through Saturday. A large ridge will slowly build in
from the north on Sunday, leading to decreasing clouds and warming
temperatures.

Out west, the combination of a trailing trough from the Southwest
AK upper low and a storm moving out of the North Pacific will
cause the ridge in place right now to rapidly weaken on Friday.
This will then allow the Pacific storm to track northward to the
Aleutians on Saturday, bringing a period of steady rain and
stronger winds. for the weekend. Tropical-like air will accompany
this system, likely bringing low clouds and fog northward across
the Aleutian chain and into the southern Bering Sea.

-SEB

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Sunnier and warmer weather for early next week in southcentral
Alaska. Tuesday evening will start to see increasing clouds,
leading to showers through Thursday from easterly waves out of
ALCAN.


A Bering low near Shemya will begin proceed eastward north of the
Aleutians and Saint Paul Island. The progression is slowed by an
upper level ridge over the Bering Strait. The low reaches the
eastern Bering by Wednesday and dissipates over the Bering Strait
before Thursday, bringing showers and wind to the Aleutian chain
and Southwest Alaska.

-SS

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Winds
will become southerly this evening and become gusty with gusts 20
to 25 mph. Winds will remain southerly, but diminish below 10 mph
after 10Z. There is a chance for vicinity rain showers early
tomorrow morning.

&&


$$