Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

588
FXAK68 PAFC 140103
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
503 PM AKDT Wed May 13 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Saturday afternoon)...

Generally unsettled, typical spring and summer-like weather is
forecast for about the next two days. Then, a strengthening Bering
Sea low pushes its front into Southcentral by Saturday, bringing
moderate to heavy rain for Kodiak Island and the Gulf coast, and
increasing winds across the region.

Diving into the details... scattered rain showers move across
parts of Southcentral today as a shortwave trough transits
northwestwards across the region. Breaks in the cloud cover are
leading to some decent diurnal heating, with temperatures rising
into the 50s across the interior, as well as northern KPen and
Anchorage. While this heating is also enhancing convection, it
looks like mid level winds aloft are shearing apart showers before
they can develop into more robust storms. Otherwise, gusty gap
winds continue this afternoon and evening, with gusts up to about
30-35 mph through Anchorage and Palmer.

One major forecast change has been for the precipitation forecast
for tomorrow, which has trended towards higher precipitation
amounts and shower coverage. As an upper low moves into the
southern Gulf tomorrow, upper level flow will become more zonal.
This will allow upper level shortwaves and vorticity advection
from the east, helping to produce widespread to numerous showers.
Given the chaotic nature of these shortwaves, where exactly these
showers develop will be difficult to predict. Still, the places
most likely to see precipitation will generally be Copper River
and Mat-Su Valleys. Showers continue through Friday, and will
gradually taper off and/or be more limited to higher elevations
by Friday evening.

Our weekend weather-maker moves into Kodiak Island by late Friday
night/early Saturday morning, and into the Southcentral Mainland
by Saturday afternoon/evening. There are still some uncertainties
with timing and placement for the low and its front. For now, it
looks like Kodiak Island and the Gulf coast will see the greatest
precipitation amounts and strongest winds from this storm,
especially as the low will near its peak strength right as the
front moves over Kodiak. Stay tuned.

-AS/KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

The broad surface low will be pushing into Southwest Alaska this
afternoon, with an initial push of widespread cloud cover and
light precipitation covering much of the region. Showers begin to
diminish tomorrow as the wave departs the region, though continued
light rain and snow will be possible at elevation across the
mountains. Some isolated thunderstorms and lightning activity was
detected early this afternoon over interior Southwest in the lower
Kuskokwim Valley. Conditions improve by Thursday afternoon across
Southwest Alaska as high pressure briefly becomes established.

Focus shifts to a potent low pressure system moving over the
Westernmost Aleutians by early Thursday morning. This system will
bring warmer air with it, allowing for the vast majority of
precipitation associated with the system to be plain rainfall.
Models have been trending with slightly more northward pushes from
this storm system, but ultimately keeping the low center still
south of the Aleutian Chain as it tracks steadily eastward along
the Pacific side of the Aleutians. The low is expected to continue
to deepen and allow for gradually stronger winds as it reaches
Unalaska by Friday. By Saturday morning, the general agreement
between the models is that the low will push its eastern front
into the Southwestern coastline. By then the low center may
meander into the southeastern Bering Sea allowing for
precipitation to return to the Pribilof Islands as well. By late
Saturday into Sunday, a pattern of widespread showers over the
Southwest and much of the Aleutians is expected. Strong east-
southeasterly winds into the northern greater Bristol Bay area is
expected.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Upper level troughing over the Bering Sea extending into the Gulf
looks to persist through at least early to mid next week,
allowing for the unsettled weather across much of southern Alaska
to continue. By Sunday morning, models remain in good agreement on
a front lifting north and stalling in the northern Gulf. This
front is expected to bring moderate to potentially heavy
precipitation along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William
Sound, while strong east to southeasterly winds in the Gulf begin
to diminish through Sunday. Chances for showers across inland
locations for Southcentral and Southwest Alaska increase heading
into next week as successive shortwaves within the broad cyclonic
flow behind the front rotate north into southern Alaska.

Meanwhile, the parent low in the Bering begins to merge with the
next incoming Kamchatka low which strengthens and consolidates
just to the south of the Aleutian Chain by early next week,
bringing another round of winds and rain to the AKPen and
Southwest Alaska. Model agreement begins to wane heading into the
middle of next week, although ensemble means favor this low taking
a more northerly track into the Bering as another front and plume
of moisture moves east into the Gulf.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the period. Showers
may develop around the terminal through this evening; however,
any shower activity that does develop should be rather limited in
scope and rainfall amount, due to a broad southeasterly
downsloping wind at mountain top level. The southeasterly
Turnagain Arm wind over the terminal this afternoon will continue
through late tonight before diminishing and becoming light and
variable overnight into early Thursday. Wind gusts late this
afternoon through late evening could approach 25 kts (30 mph).
Ceilings could fall to around 5,000 ft overnight before lifting
Thursday morning.

-TM

&&


$$