Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

674
FXAK68 PAFC 050123
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
523 PM AKDT Mon May 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Little change to the forecast for the next few days. A North
Pacific low continues to rise south of Kodiak Island. Its front
is allowing for widespread precipitation across Southcentral
Alaska including Anchorage and the Mat-Su. However, downsloping
from strong easterly winds aloft is allowing the inland
precipitation to taper off. Precipitation chances increase for
inland areas again by Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with another
push of moisture and decreasing aloft winds. This precipitation
will be showery in nature due to higher instability. Gap winds
continue across the Copper and Mat Valley again today, with the
Turnagain wind returning to Anchorage on Tuesday. High
temperatures continue to be in the low 50s across Southcentral for
the next couple of days with snow levels rising to 3000 to 4000
ft today. Cooler air aloft arrives tomorrow with the approach of
an upper trough over northwest Alaska and drops snow levels to
2000 to 2500 ft by Tuesday and even lower by Wednesday. This
wetter pattern looks to continue through the week.

-JAR/CJ

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday evening)...

Currently, a vertically stacked low spins in the North Pacific
near the southwest Gulf of Alaska. This low will continue into the
western Gulf as it weakens through Tuesday. Moisture continues to
spill over the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges and into the
Southwestern Mainland as well as the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) this
afternoon. Moderate rain has been reported across the Dillingham
early this afternoon with showery conditions across Iliamna.
Meanwhile, cold northerly flow across eastern Bering has allowed
snowflakes to mix in with rain across Unalaska with Cold Bay
mainly seeing light snow. Expect snow showers and rain/snow mix to
persist across the southern AKPEN through Tuesday afternoon
before it tapers off in the evening hours. Rain across the
Kuskokwim Valley could also mix with snow Tuesday morning through
Tuesday as cold air works in while precipitation is in the ending
stage. Expect drier and more benign weather across the AKPEN and
Southwest Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge moves in from the
Bering Sea.

Farther out west, a gale-force front from a Kamchatka low will
begin making its presence felt across the Western Aleutians
Tuesday morning as the ridge over the Bering mentioned above moves
east to the central Bering. Light rain and gusty southeast winds
are a good bet over Shemya early Tuesday afternoon through early
Wednesday morning before the moisture axis moves to Kiska by
Wednesday morning. Adak may see some light rain showers Wednesday
morning, but they will likely be more under the influence of the
strong Bering ridge. As the ridge moves east to the eastern Bering
by Wednesday afternoon, a weak North Pacific low will lift north
to just south of Adak/Atka by late Wednesday night/early Thursday
morning. Adak and Atka can expect light rain and gusty easterly to
northeasterly winds Wednesday night through Thursday morning
before precipitation becomes more scattered in nature by Thursday
afternoon and evening.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long term forecast looks to be characterized by vertically
stacked high pressure across the Bering and general troughing
south of the Aleutian Chain and across the Gulf. On Friday, there
is fairly good consensus between the global models of an upper
trough or closed low digging across mainland Alaska. At the
surface, the surface troughing looks to consolidate into a closed
surface low with a front that lifts northward across the Gulf. If
guidance continues to be on track, precipitation will be sent
northward across the Gulf coast, and potentially spilling over
into Southcentral. Models also roughly agree that coastal ridging
will try to develop ahead of the front, in which case could create
some degree of a Turnagain Arm wind from an east to west oriented
pressure gradient. By Sunday morning, there are significant
differences within the models of surface low placement across the
Gulf. That said, the pattern looks to remain unsettled through the
long term.

-AM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Intermittent rain showers will continue through Tuesday.
Southeasterly winds have started to increase and will help to
provide downsloping to semi dry things out. Early this afternoon
as the rains ended, a stable layer developed a few thousand feet
off of the ground, allowing lower clouds and IFR cigs to get
trapped beneath. Do not expect these clouds to persist for more
than a few hours. Expect conditions to become VFR by late
afternoon.

&&


$$