Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

628
FXAK68 PAFC 171302
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 AM AKDT Wed Sep 17 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday Night)...

Generally quiet weather will prevail through much of the day for
Southcentral Alaska as the previous low responsible for rainfall
across the area over the past few days diminishes. Latest radar
imagery shows a few remaining showers across the Kenai Peninsula and
Cook Inlet area, but decreasing in coverage as the night progresses.
Much of Southcentral Alaska from the Kenai Peninsula northward
through Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley is expected to have pleasant
weather today with a dose of sunshine.

Attention today will be focused on a strong low in the eastern
Gulf, currently analyzed just west of Baranof Island and trekking
north. Cloud cover currently extends out across much of the
eastern Gulf and into the eastern Chugach and Copper River Basin.
Rain associated with this system has been observed as far west as
Cordova thus far. Rain should continue to spread into far eastern
Prince William Sound this morning along with central portions of
the Copper Basin, while western portions of the sound likely see
no rain. The low quickly weakens on Wednesday as it moves inland
near Yakutat, causing precipitation to become showery and focus
along the southwestern slopes of the coastal mountains and the
Wrangells.

Wednesday night and beyond the forecast becomes less clear with
upper-level longwave troughing shifting east from the Bering Sea.
Moist southerly flow with a series of weak features ejecting from
the base of the trough will promote periods of rainfall over the
Gulf with upslope showers along much of the north Gulf coast
Thursday and Friday. With a shift to much weaker shortwaves, cross-
barrier flow will be more limited than previously anticipated, so
periods of light rain are possible for inland locations as more
potent shortwaves lift past the mountains. However, rainfall
accumulations are not expected to be very much.

Brown/Quesada

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Across Southwest Alaska, conditions are overcast to mostly cloudy
this morning due to mid level clouds streaming in from the
southeast from a remnant area of low pressure northeast of Kodiak
Island. Isolated shower activity and cloud cover has acted to help
insulate the atmosphere this morning and has kept low
temperatures 40F or warmer for most. Farther west, a ~980 mb gale
force low is nearly stationary and situated just to the north of
the Western Aleutians, with its strongest winds well offshore and
on its northwestern flank. Its front extends east-southeastward
across the Bering and Eastern Aleutians, with a weak area of low
pressure sitting to the south of King Cove and Sand Point. Looking
at satellite imagery, surface observations, and comparing to
current model guidance, it does seem that the overall model
consensus has been a little fast at bringing in precipitation to
the Eastern Aleutians with the frontal boundary.

Aloft, the flow is fairly zonal with the exceptions of a
shortwave lifting northeastward from the North Pacific towards the
front and a larger upper low over the Western Aleutians. By this
afternoon and evening, the gale force low affecting the Western
Aleutians begins moving eastward, starts a slow weakening trend,
and evolves into a complex low, keeping showery and windy
conditions in place for the near term. Heading into late
Wednesday, the shortwave looks to reinvigorate the front and
increase rainfall coverage from the Pribilof Islands southward to
Cold Bay. Most of the operational models have the complex low
moving eastward across the central Bering and Pribilof Islands
Thursday morning. This feature lingers across the eastern Bering
through Friday afternoon, keeping low impact weather as the main
story for much of the western domain through the end of the short
term.

-AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

West-to-east zonal flow over the majority of the region will
maintain the unsettled weather pattern, however diminish the
likelihood for highly impactful weather patterns. Models have been
struggling coming to a consensus on timing the finer features and
shortwaves pushing through the region, particularly given the
zonal flow. Confidence however is strong that by Saturday
morning, a low pressure system will establish over the northern
Gulf of Alaska, bringing the potential for heavy rain and strong
winds to the Southcentral coast. Depending on the low`s
orientation, there is the chance for a barrier jet to form along
the marine areas of the northern Gulf Coast Friday into Saturday.
Through the weekend, rain is expected to continue along the Gulf
coast and into Southwest Alaska. Areas of gusty winds through the
southern gaps and passes of the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern
Aleutians that weekend as well, given the persistent northwesterly
flow in the area. In addition, southwesterly upper level flow
will bring the potential for rain to move up Cook Inlet and into
the Mat-Su Valleys. By Tuesday morning, agreement is generally
fair that a trough will remain over the Southcentral area, with a
ridge over the Aleutians. However, by Tuesday morning some
solutions are advertising a new trough to approach the western
periphery of the ridge much more rapidly than others. This will
lead to lower forecast confidence currently for early next week.

-CL

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF
period.

&&


$$