Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

767
FXAK68 PAFC 180112
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
512 PM AKDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Monday night)...

Generally expect precipitation to continue today, with improving
conditions tomorrow. By late tomorrow through much of Sunday,
however, a low will bring widespread precipitation and windy
conditions. The biggest concern will, once again, be focused on
area mountain passes, where temperatures could be cold enough to
support appreciable snow accumulations over the course of the day
on Sunday.

Diving into the details... an upper trough sliding east across
Southcentral will continue to bring precipitation to Mainland
Southcentral, with steadier precipitation for Prince William
Sound, and showers from Kenai Peninsula north to Mat-Su. As the
trough begins to transit out of the area from tonight through
tomorrow, showers will become more infrequent before eventually
tapering off.

Enjoy tomorrow`s weather while you can, as stormier weather will
soon be on the way by early Sunday morning. Forecast confidence is
steadily growing that as a front in the Bering Sea moves over
Southern Alaska, a weak surface low will develop near the southern
tip of Kenai Peninsula and move east along the north Gulf coast.
Given the moisture associated with this front, most of
Southcentral will likely see some precipitation with this system.
Still, the greatest amounts will likely be focused along the north
Gulf coast, and likely along Susitna Valley due to upslope
southwesterly flow. As the surface low strengthens, winds aloft
will likely be strong enough to induce downsloping in Anchorage
and parts of Kenai Peninsula, where precipitation will be lighter.

The biggest challenge with this storm will likely be precipitation
type, especially at lower elevations. There`s not much warm air
aloft, so precipitation type will likely rely more on lower-level
processes. Something to watch will be the coastal ridge that
develops ahead of the low late Saturday into Sunday, which will
likely kick up gusty southeasterly winds through Turnagain Arm,
Knik Arm, and Copper River Valley. With these winds strengthening
overnight and with increasing cloud cover associated with the
approaching front, this may keep temperatures warm enough
overnight that much of the precipitation will fall as rain,
especially for Anchorage and Mat Valley. Still, given the time of
year and the fact that we`re not quite out of winter`s grasp, it
remains possible that some light snow accumulations may be
squeezed out of this system in the morning before things melt and
change to rain in the afternoon.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Currently, mid to low stratus linger across areas east of the
Pribs and across the Southwest Mainland, including the Alaska
Peninsula. To the west, the unseasonably strong North Pacific low
we`ve been speaking to the last few days has moved north, with its
low center now located between Attu Island and Adak - its
cloud shield covering the western Bering, as far northeast as the
Pribilof Islands. Gusts 50 to 60 mph will not be uncommon for the
next 36 hours from Atka west and across the western Bering as the
low moves north before losing some of its core strength. Shemya
will receive the strongest winds, which are expected to gust up to
70 mph for a short period this evening. Precipitation may start
as mixed before transitioning to all rain as warm air advection
moves in. The low will slowly move east over the weekend. The
leading front will bring a potential for blowing snow across the
Pribilof Islands overnight tonight and the Aleutian Chain Saturday
through early Sunday, before temperatures warm. The leading front
will progress rapidly east bringing blowing snow conditions to
the Kuskokwim Delta Saturday and Sunday as the front pushes
inland. Winter weather products have been issued across the Delta
for reduced visibilities in blowing snow over the period.

Despite the warm air advection in front of the low, cold air will
wrap around the back of the low, allowing for higher instability
and showery precipitation to form over the Bering as the low moves
east. Looking ahead to next week, an Arctic trough dips into
Southwest Alaska, potentially dropping low temperatures into the
teens and single digits across the Southwest Mainland beginning
Monday night. These temperatures combined with lingering
precipitation from the strong low means widespread snowfall is
possible Monday onward.

AB/JAR


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

A shift toward cooler and more unsettled weather is expected
across much of Alaska through the upcoming week. A pattern dropping
in from the north will bring colder air along with periods of
snow showers across the interior and Alaska Range.

Meanwhile, a weakening but still impactful storm over the southern
Bering sea will continue to create hazardous marine conditions,
including gusty winds and steady precipitation across the
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest Alaska.

By early to mid next week, attention turns to Southcentral and
Southeast Alaska as a developing system pulls in a deep surge of
moisture. This will likely bring several days of rain and snow,
with heavier snow totals possible across the Alaska Range and
through higher elevation passes, along with increasing winds.

There is also a strong North Pacific low being monitored. While
current projections keep it south of the state, any northward
shift toward the Gulf of Alaska could lead to another round of
impactful weather late next week.

LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Scattered rain showers will continue across Anchorage through
tonight as a trough pivots across the area. A full array of ceilings
currently exists from IFR heights up through VFR. Generally however,
ceilings are expected to be in the MVFR range today before
degradation to IFR CIGs overnight. Snow may mix in with rain
tonight with any showers. Winds will remain light.

&&


$$