Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

251
FXAK68 PAFC 191326
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 AM AKST Thu Feb 19 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An approaching Arctic trough across western Alaska is sinking
towards Southcentral this morning. Light freezing drizzle
overnight has switched over to very light snow for the Anchorage
area for this morning. This very light precipitation could linger
through the rest of this morning as the trough passes into
Southcentral with weak upslope flow along the mountains. Snow for
the Copper River Basin area will linger through the rest of this
afternoon as the trough deepens in the northern Gulf tonight.

As precipitation ends, all attention will shift to a cold and
windy pattern. The large scale pattern will continue to amplify
through Friday, with a ridge in the Bering Sea and a trough over
mainland AK and the Gulf. Colder Arctic air plunges south across
Southcentral Friday (-20 to -25 degrees Celsius at 850mb). A
surface low will form over the northeast Gulf and help tighten up
pressure gradients. As the atmospheric flow becomes oriented N-S
tonight, additional vorticity maxima embedded in the flow will
drop southward across Southcentral into the Gulf, helping to
strengthen winds at the surface. Even colder air will advect into
interior Southcentral (as cold as -25 to -30 degrees Celsius at
850mb) Friday night into Saturday.

While most of the region will experience gusty northerly winds
the next couple days, the strongest winds by far will be found
along the coast and much of the Gulf coastal waters as winds
accelerate offshore and through bays and passes. Beginning with
the first surge of Arctic air from the northwest - Kodiak Island,
the western Gulf, and Seward/Whittier areas will be favored for
the strongest winds. This will gradually shift to Valdez/Thompson
Pass and the Copper River Delta Friday. Multiple wind products
have been issued to highlight the strong winds expected, with some
potential to reach the high wind threshold (75 mph) in Kodiak
City and Thompson Pass. There is some uncertainty in exactly how
strong winds will get. Kodiak will be right along the western edge
of the digging trough, so any shift will affect the winds.
Meanwhile, for Valdez and Thompson Pass by the time the upper flow
becomes really favorable for high winds, the bulk of the cold air
advection has passed and the surface low in the Gulf is quickly
exiting. Still, the thermal and pressure gradients between Valdez
and the Copper Valley look impressive and passage of any vorticity
maximum or short-wave trough could be just enough to produce high
winds. Stay tuned as we continue to fine-tune the wind forecast.

Meanwhile, temperatures and wind chills will steadily fall over
the next couple days. By Saturday morning, expect widespread
temperatures below zero inland and in the single digits along the
coast. Though winds will be diminishing most places by Saturday,
wherever wind lingers wind chills will be well below zero. As is
typical, the Copper River Basin can expect some of the coldest
temperatures, with wind chills of -40 to -50 degrees possible by
this weekend.

-SEB/Rux

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA / BERING SEA / ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

An upper level ridge is steadily building across much of the
Bering Sea this morning, allowing relatively calm and dry
conditions to prevail this morning for much of the region. Farther
east, a digging shortwave trough is making rapid headway southeast
over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Mountains. A weak
surface cold front is moving in behind the stronger front that
moved through yesterday, ushering a few more snow showers across
portions of Southwest as it passes through. Arctic air is
beginning to advect into the Kuskokwim Delta behind the front,
where temperatures have now fallen into the single digits and
teens. Farther south, gusty gap winds along and south of the AKPen
have begun to develop as northerly flow increases between the
amplifying Bering ridge and the digging trough heading towards the
Gulf.

There is little change in the forecast for the near term
expectations heading into the upcoming weekend. A frontal system
stemming from an occluded low drifting towards Kamchatka will
begin to affect the western Bering and Aleutian Chain later today,
sending a corridor of easterly winds up to Storm force as it moves
past this afternoon. The initial warm front will weaken as it
lifts north and rides over the top of the strong ridge building
over the eastern Bering Sea, now looking less likely to bring any
rain to the central Aleutians or Pribilofs as it comes through
between tonight and Friday. A trailing feed of tropical moisture
streaming in around the western side of the ridge will mainly
affect the western Aleutians, with periods of steady, moderate
rain likely for Shemya through Saturday.

While much of the Bering becomes anomalously warm over the next
couple days, much of Southwest will meanwhile be dealing with much
colder than average temperatures through the start of the weekend.
Strong northerly flow will intensify through Friday between the
ridge to the west and a deep trough carving its way south into the
Gulf and Northeast Pacific. This will allow Arctic air to continue
to advect southwards into the region, pushing overnight lows into
the -10s to 0s for the next few nights. Intense gap flow will
develop through mountain passes and out of bays along the south
side of the AKPen thanks to the impressive low level and upper
level northerly jet expected to develop near Bristol bay and
Kodiak Island through Friday. Storm force sustained winds with
Hurricane force gusts are likely out of bays and passes east of
Chignik late tonight through Friday, most notably out of Wide
Bay. Northerly gap winds will begin to weaken by Saturday as
northerly flow relaxes.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through
Wednesday)...

An upper level trough moves south into the Gulf of Alaska Sunday,
transitioning the pattern toward a more amplified regime. Ridging
builds over the Bering while troughing persists over the Gulf,
allowing a colder airmass to spread across Southwest and into
Southcentral Alaska.

Conditions trend drier Sunday into the early start of the week as
the ridge strengthens inland. Northerly flow develops through
Southcentral, bringing clearing skies and radiational cooling
overnight. Expect colder nighttime temperatures, with interior
valleys falling into single digits, while coastal areas remain
mainly in the teens. Daytime highs generally range from the teens
to lower 20s.

Winds will favor northerly to northeasterly directions through
gaps and higher terrain. Gusty outflow winds are possible in wind
prone locations, expecially Sunday night into Monday, while
lighter winds could prevail across interior portions of the
Anchorage Bowl.

By late Monday into Tuesday, the ridge shifts east as a new low
moves into the Bering Sea. Increasing cloud cover spreads eastward
with temperatures moderating slightly. Precipitation chances begin
returning to western Alaska first, with a low confidence chance of
snow reaching portions of Southcentral by Wednesday.

The pattern becomes more unsettled midweek as the next system
approaches from the west. Confidence in the exact timing and
snowfall amounts remains low.

LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR conditions persist through the morning with a
potential for periods of IFR conditions during light snowfall.
VFR conditions will prevail when precipitation chances diminish in
the late morning. Gusty northerly winds arrive in the afternoon
once an upper trough dips into the region, lasting through Friday
afternoon.

&&


$$