Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

365
FXAK68 PAFC 211331
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
531 AM AKDT Thu May 21 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Light rain showers will persist across Southcentral through the
end of the week. The valleys of the Copper River Basin will be the
exception, being mostly dry. Southerly gap winds are expected to
continue today through Turnagain Arm, Knik, and the Copper River
Valley. Conditions overnight may dry out some for Anchorage,
portions of the western Kenai peninsula, and the Mat Valley,
though rain showers are expected to be reintroduced on Friday.

KM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Currently, a low is just off the coast of the Southwest Mainland.
This is allowing for gusty winds over the Aleutians and gap winds
in the Cold Bay and Unimak Pass areas. The low is bringing
widespread rain showers to the Aleutians and the Southwest
Mainland. The low will slowly approach the coast and will stall
out near Nunivak Island this afternoon. This will allow for
continued rain showers over the mainland over the weekend. Also,
gap winds will decrease in response to the low moving. Meanwhile,
weak flow will set up over the Bering, which means weaker winds
and lower precipitation chances will prevail through the weekend.
On Sunday, a strong low will move south of the Aleutians, causing
gale force winds and precipitation to the Adak area. The low will
rise into the Bering by Monday, likely bringing gusty winds and
precipitation to the rest of the Aleutians.

-JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through
Wednesday)...

Broad upper level troughing over the Bering Sea and Gulf looks to
continue to remain in place through the long term. Several
shortwaves rotating around the upper low across the western
Bering, North Pacific, and into the Gulf will continue to support
the active pattern and unsettled conditions across much of
southern Alaska through early to mid next week.

By late this weekend, fairly benign weather with a chance of
showers is expected across southern Alaska as upper level flow
weakens between weather systems. Model agreement quickly begins to
wane heading into Monday as the weakening upper low over the
eastern Bering is replaced by a new, stronger low lifting north
out of the North Pacific towards the Aleutians. Fairly large model
spread remains on the speed and track of the surface low as it
lifts north and approaches the Aleutian Chain. Confidence is high
that the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula see gusty winds and
widespread rain by the end of the weekend into early next week.
The front associated with this system tracks into the Gulf by
early to mid next week, but plenty of details in the exact timing
of gusty winds and rainfall across the Gulf and Southcentral will
need to be ironed out in the coming days. Regardless, expect a
continuation of the active weather pattern through early next
week.

&&





.AVIATION...

PANC... An upper level short-wave will bring showers. Ceilings
will most likely drop to MVFR during this period, then improve as
southeasterly downslope flow cuts off rain by late morning or
mid afternoon. A Turnagain Arm jet will develop this morning,
bringing a return of gusty southeast winds at the terminal
somewhere in the 18Z to 21Z time frame. The winds will remain for
the remainder of the period.

&&


$$