Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

584
FXAK68 PAFC 061312
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
512 AM AKDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Wednesday)...

Generally expect increasingly unsettled weather as a low pressure
system in the Bering Sea moves towards Southcentral Alaska. While
much of the region will see at least a brief period of snow/rain,
the highest precipitation amounts will be along the Gulf coast,
including Prince William Sound. No significant hazards are
anticipated at this time.

Diving into the details... currently, an elongated upper level
low extends northwest to southeast across the Southcentral
Mainland, bringing cloudy skies and an area of scattered showers
mostly in interior Kenai Peninsula. As this upper low weakens into
a trough and exits towards the east, upper level ridging behind it
will bring clearing skies. Given our steady transition into spring,
expect another warm day today with highs in the mid 30s to low
40s, as well as localized sea breezes along the coast.

Cloudy skies and precipitation will be on the way by tomorrow as
the front of a Bering Sea low begins to move in from the west. The
front will arrive in Kodiak Island by this evening, and reach the
mainland by tomorrow morning. With its parent low quickly
occluding as the front moves in, warm air and moisture advection
will be limited for this storm. Still, forecasting precipitation
type will be tricky, as temperatures remain below freezing aloft,
but surface temperatures will again climb into the 30s and 40s for
Tuesday. The general expectation is for light snow accumulations
in the morning, with a change to a rain/snow mix or rain by the
afternoon and evening. Typical downslope areas like Western Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat Valley will likely see only a brief
period of snow tomorrow morning before precipitation comes to an
end. There could be another round of snow late Tuesday night into
Wednesday as another trough moves in, but the placement of that
trough remains uncertain at this time. Regardless, light snow/rain
will likely continue along Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince
William Sound from early Tuesday morning through much of Wednesday
as these successive disturbances move through.

-KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

An expansive frontal system associated with a low moving into the
southwestern Bering Sea now extends across much of the
central/eastern Bering this morning. A plume of moisture extends
well ahead of the front, with widespread precipitation ongoing
from the Fox Islands and AKPen north to the Pribilofs.
Temperatures have been hovering in the mid 30s across the eastern
side of the Aleutian Chain and southern AKPen, allowing for a mix
of rain and snow near sea level. Farther north, the Pribilofs
have seen mostly snow overnight, with rain occasionally mixing in
over Saint George. Gusty east to southeast winds up to 35 mph are
streaming along and ahead of the front, including through favored
gaps along the southern AKPen. Over Southwest, temperatures have
dropped all the way into the 0s across parts of Bristol Bay and
the Kuskokwim Delta, where clear skies and light wind under a
shortwave ridge moving overhead have helped the surface
efficiently radiate out heat overnight. Patchy fog has also
recently developed along the southern end of the Kuskokwim River,
as well as in the Dillingham vicinity farther south.

For the first half of the week ahead, an active pattern will
continue for much of the region, mainly courtesy of the large low
and associated front marching eastwards with time. Later today,
the front will spread widespread snow and increasing southeast
winds into Southwest, first reaching the coast near midday, then
spreading inland through this evening. Gusty winds picking up
along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and along the Western Capes will
lead to areas of blowing snow and visibilities reduced to a half
mile or less at times, where Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect. As southeasterly flow increases, warm air advection and
downslope flow off of the Aleutian/Alaska Range will begin to warm
temperatures enough for snow to begin mixing with rain this
evening, mainly across southern parts of Bristol Bay.

From Tuesday into Wednesday, the vertically stacked Bering low
will shift east into Southwest as steady frontal precipitation
gives way to more showery conditions. Precipitation type across
much of Southwest on Tuesday will begin to depend a bit more on
the time of day, with a transition from snow showers to rain
showers likely during the afternoon as temperatures warm into the
mid to upper 30s. Things should finally begin to dry back out late
in the day on Wednesday as the main low/trough shifts east
towards the Alaska Range and as a transient high pressure ridge
develops over the central Bering Sea.

Looking back to the west, a potent frontal system tied to a
deep Kamchatka low will arrive in the Near Islands and western
Bering on Wednesday. Strong southerly Gale Force winds with Storm
Force gusts will begin to spread into the western fringes of the
outlook area as it arrives, along with another round of steady
rainfall across western parts of the Aleutians.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

High pressure building over mainland Alaska will push low
pressure and associated precipitation into the SE Panhandle at the
start of the long term forecast period. Out west, a front moving
over the Aleutian Chain will bring precipitation and elevated
winds to the Bering Sea and Kuskokwim Delta Thursday and Friday.
Models begin to diverge by the weekend with increasing uncertainty
regarding the timing and placement of features, but a progressive
upper level shortwave pattern will keep elevated chances of
stormy weather for the Bering Sea and west coast. Forecast high
temperatures over southern Alaska look to remain around average to
above average through the period.


&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail
through the TAF period. Ceilings look to drop below 5000` by 12z
Tuesday as light snow moves in ahead of a front. Brief MVFR
ceilings/vis are possible during any heavier snow showers, but
most of the precipitation should stay light. The short range
guidance wants to bring much of the snow out of the area by the
very end of the TAF period, though scattered flurries may linger.


&&


$$