Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

396
FXAK68 PAFC 121253
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 AM AKDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Snow has filled in this morning across the northern Cook Inlet and
Mat-Su Valleys as a trough continues to progress through the Gulf.
The strongest dynamic forcing and cold air advection is more into
the eastern Gulf and Panhandle, but some of the moisture will wrap
into Southcentral with weak easterly waves moving through north of
the upper low center. Most low elevation areas will get a trace
to three inches over the next 24 hours (including the overnight
accumulation) while a few areas will get upslope enhancement.
These are the Anchorage and Eagle River Hillsides, the interior
Kenai Peninsula near Cooper Landing if temperatures stay cool
enough and the northern slopes of the Chugach in areas like
Ernestine and Eureka. The Alaska Range Passes will also get a fair
amount of snow, but for the most part this is expected on the
north side of the range. Precipitation will last most of the day
for most spots, but the April solar intensity should limit daytime
accumulation on roads and most non-snow covered surfaces.

The influence of this system will deteriorate for most areas on
Monday, though the southern Copper Valley and the Mentasta/Nabesna
area may continue to get light snow through late Monday night. For
Tuesday, expect a return to sunny conditions with slightly below
normal temperatures.


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

A negativley-tilted upper level trough extends over Southwest this
morning, where clusters of snow showers continue to track through
the region from west to east. To the west, a flat ridge extends
across much of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain. A few stray
snow/rain showers are drifting into the southern AKPen and Fox
Islands within this belt of westerly flow, but otherwise calm
conditions are prevailing under the transient ridge of high
pressure. Farther west, a warm front associated with a Kamchatka
low is beginning to reach the Near Islands, with rain and
increasing southeast winds now approaching Shemya out ahead of the
frontal boundary. This frontal system will become the main driver
for more unsettled conditions across parts of the outlook area
over the next few days.

Forecast confidence for the first part of the new week remains on
the high side, with few changes for the general expectations for
the pattern progression. The warm front currently moving into the
southwest corner of the Bering Sea will progress steadily
northeast across the western portions of the Bering and Aleutian
Chain today into Monday. The front does look a touch stronger
compared to some earlier model runs, so winds have been increased
slightly along this feature with this forecast package to account
for this trend. Gale Force sustained winds are likely to move
past the Rat Islands as the frontal system approaches this
afternoon into tonight, but winds will weaken to below Gales as
the front continues along the remainder of the Aleutians through
early Tuesday.

As the front arrives in the Pribilof Islands on Monday,
temperatures will initially be cold enough for precipitation
moving in ahead of the boundary to fall as snow. A quick 1-3" of
accumulation is expected prior to a transition to mainly rain
within a few hours after snow begins as strong warm air advection
pushes low level temperatures above freezing. Blowing snow and
reduced visibility will be possible for a few hours as snow moves
in, but this window will be very short-lived given quickly warming
temperatures through Monday evening. The front will weaken as it
continues northeast into Southwest, bringing another round of
light snow to much of the region as it begins to move inland
through Tuesday night.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Upper level troughing will continue over the Panhandle and high
pressure over the eastern Bering Sea will lead to northerly flow
over most of southern mainland Alaska at the start of the forecast
period. Mostly dry conditions will be present with elevated winds
through the Barren Islands and Kodiak Island, which will
gradually diminish through early Thursday.

A Sea of Okhotsk/Kamchatka low with embedded shortwaves will
transit the Bering Sea, spreading rain showers over the Aleutians
Tuesday and Southwest AK Wednesday and Thursday. There is
uncertainty among models regarding timing of trough progression,
but precipitation is expected to work into Southcentral Alaska
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain near or slightly
below normal through the forecast period.


&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...Snow moving through the area today will bring IFR
conditions with intermittent improvements to MVFR. Light
accumulation of around 1 to 2 inches is expected. Conditions
improve to VFR this evening, though cloud ceiling will likely stay
below 5000 ft.


&&


$$