Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

458
FXAK68 PAFC 050131
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKST Wed Feb 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Friday night)...

The radar is filling in quickly this afternoon, with moderate
rain overspreading Chenega Bay and the southern Prince William
Sound. This swath of rainfall is grazing the coastline as
satellite imagery reveals a large and vertically stacked North
Pacific low around 500 miles south of Chignik, with a smaller low
developing along its attendant front/trough axis that is pivoting
northwestward across the central Gulf. This front will push
towards the Southcentral coast and Kodiak Island through this
evening as the parent low slowly drifts northwestward towards the
Alaska Peninsula. The initial push of the front will most likely
bring a swath of sustained gales south of the Kenai Peninsula
across the Barren Islands, oriented southwestward through the
Shelikof Strait. Look for most of the associated precipitation to
be in the form of rain at or near sea level as snow levels hover
around 2500 feet. Aloft, a lifting shortwave trough moving over
the Cook Inlet region will align with the arrival of the front,
which will act to enhance precipitation across coastal
Southcentral. In lee of the Chugach, very little to no spillover
precipitation is expected through the overnight, though cloudy
skies with relatively light winds should keep the atmosphere both
insulated and mixed, so overnight lows only look to bottom out at
around the freezing mark for the Anchorage Bowl. That said, expect
some areas of refreeze/black ice issues from recent snowmelt for
the morning commute, in particular for valley locations where
temperatures will be colder.

By the latter half of Thursday, a marginally cooler airmass works
into the region in the wake of the front, which will act to lower
snow levels to 1500 to 2000 feet and shave a few degrees off of
high temperatures for the region, keeping most areas in the mid to
upper 30s, and in some areas, the lower 40s. There is some
disagreement of note, particularly with the MOS guidance, that
shows a spread in high temperatures for Friday and onward,
probably because of some uncertainty with key synoptic features
through the end of the short term. For instance, the 12z NAM MOS
for Anchorage shows a high of 32F for Friday, while the GFS shows
38F. The bulk of the uncertainty in the models through the rest of
the short term continues to be timing and placement of any
shortwaves that pinwheel off of the lifting large North Pacific
circulation. The 500 mb flow looks to be meridional across the
North Pacific at this time with general troughing to the west and
ridging across southeast Alaska, with a difluent flow nestled in
between the two features over the Gulf. By Saturday, the global
models show another vertically stacked low moving into the Gulf,
though run to run consistency as to where this low ends up is poor
at this time.

-AM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3:)...

A North Pacific low remains stationary south of Cold Bay through
Thursday morning. This brings waves of moisture through Southwest
Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula (AK Pen) into the end of the work
week. Northerly winds prevail in Western and portions of Central
Aleutians into the end of the work week.

Precipitation across Southwest Alaska and the AK Pen will
continue through tomorrow though amounts will be light with most
areas recording a trace of snow mixed with periods of freezing
rain during this time. As the stationary low moves northward into
the Bering Sea tomorrow, its associated front brings northeasterly
winds to the Pribilofs through the day. Precipitation tomorrow in
the Pribilofs will range from snow mixing with freezing rain at
times as a warm nose of air moves above the cooler, ice-
influenced surface air. The precipitation tomorrow is expected to
fall through the evening hours as the front lifts northward
keeping easterly winds the main direction.

Ahead of a Kamchatka low, northerly winds will persist in the
Western and Central Aleutians through the week`s end. This will
continue the snow showers over the region causing continued
periods of reduced visibility. The front from this low crosses the
Western Aleutians Saturday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through
Wednesday)...

Towards the end of the weekend, a broad, complex low pressure
system will be centered several hundred miles south of Kodiak
Island, while a deeper more consolidated low will be situated
between Kamchatka and the western Aleutians. Between these lows,
a fairly sharp ridge extends north across the Aleutians into the
central Bering Sea. Deep longwave troughing over the far western
Bering Sea will promote a much stormier pattern through the
weekend into early next week. The complex low south of Kodiak
Island lifts into the Gulf through the weekend, bringing wet,
rainy weather along the coast from the Pacific side of the Alaska
Peninsula up to the north Gulf coast. As the low elongates and
slides toward Southeast Alaska on Sunday and Monday, moisture and
upper level troughing will nudge in over Southcentral, which may
allow precipitation to spread into the region. The best chances
for this will be over the Copper River Basin, where some snow
showers will be possible. Southcentral valleys, there are lower
chances for precipitation, but warmer temperatures in the low-
levels suggest that there is a greater chance that this
precipitation would fall as rain or freezing rain.

A more significant feature tracks up from the North Pacific into
the vicinity of the eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula by Sunday
afternoon. As the low crosses the Aleutians, strong winds as high
as 75 mph are possible as the low center progresses north into the
southern Bering. As the low tracks northward, model spread
increases with some solutions bringing the low center west of the
Pribilofs and some to the East by Monday morning. These different
tracks would result in a strong difference in wind direction and
precipitation type for the Pribilofs. Snowfall from this system
would be easily blown around by the low as it spins down, leading
to the potential for a period of significantly reduced visibility.

Another deep low looking to track along the Aleutians or lift
into the Bering Sea on Monday afternoon and Tuesday, quickly
following the aforementioned system. This has potential to produce
another round of moderate to heavy rain for the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula in addition to further potential for strong wind
gusts in excess of 75 mph. By Tuesday morning, the low`s front
may reach Southwest Alaska. There is growing confidence that this
system will quickly move into the eastern Bering Sea, reaching the
Southwest Alaska coastline by Tuesday evening. Strong onshore
flow may promote higher wave action near shore.

CL/LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF
period. Light and variable to light northerly winds under 10 kts
will also persist. Ceilings may drop to the 5000 foot level on
Thursday as southeasterly flow aloft weakens somewhat and becomes
more southerly during Thursday afternoon and evening. A shower or
two spilling over the mountains Thursday afternoon to Thursday
evening is possible with the weakening and more southerly flow
aloft. However, the terminal should largely remain dry through the
TAF period.

&&


$$