Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

393
FXAK68 PAFC 210009
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
409 PM AKDT Wed May 20 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Light rain continues this afternoon for the northern Gulf coast
and Copper Basin as remnants of a low in the Gulf move inland.
Elsewhere, after a brief period of reduced cloud cover this
afternoon and overnight, mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions
return as a cloud shield moves in ahead an approaching upper
level shortwave trough. The shortwave is expected to sweep across
Southcentral starting Thursday morning before the parent low moves
inland on Friday. This low will bring more light but widespread
rain to Southcentral with several shortwave troughs through
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

A Bering Sea low pressure system currently over Atka Island
continues to advance northeastward tonight, pushing a front along
the eastern leading edge of the low into the Southwest coastline.
The gale force southerly winds along the front will break tonight
as the front pushes up the Alaska Peninsula into the Southwest
Mainland. Southwesterly gale force winds on the southern side of
the low center will continue to skirt the southern side of the
Aleutian Chain as the low shifts eastward. Gap winds will diminish
by Thursday afternoon as winds turn westerly. Showery
precipitation will impact the Southwest Mainland Thursday through
Saturday as the low stalls out over the mainland. This
precipitation will slowly diminish as the low weakens. Wind speeds
for inland areas will mostly be breezy, with the coast seeing
higher winds. Weak flow will arise over the Bering by Friday,
allowing for lighter winds and lower precipitation chances over
the Aleutians.

-CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through
Wednesday)...

Broad upper level troughing over the Bering Sea and Gulf looks to
continue to remain in place through the long term. Several
shortwaves rotating around the upper low across the western
Bering, North Pacific, and into the Gulf will continue to support
the active pattern and unsettled conditions across much of
southern Alaska through early to mid next week.

By late this weekend, fairly benign weather with a chance of
showers is expected across southern Alaska as upper level flow
weakens between weather systems. Model agreement quickly begins to
wane heading into Monday as the weakening upper low over the
eastern Bering is replaced by a new, stronger low lifting north
out of the North Pacific towards the Aleutians. Fairly large model
spread remains on the speed and track of the surface low as it
lifts north and approaches the Aleutian Chain. Confidence is high
that the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula see gusty winds and
widespread rain by the end of the weekend into early next week.
The front associated with this system tracks into the Gulf by
early to mid next week, but plenty of details in the exact timing
of gusty winds and rainfall across the Gulf and Southcentral will
need to be ironed out in the coming days. Regardless, expect a
continuation of the active weather pattern through early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...An upper level short-wave will exit northward late this
afternoon and evening. There could be a few showers which form
over the Kenai Peninsula and track northward toward Anchorage and
in the vicinity of PANC, but expect ceiling/vis to remain VFR.
Another upper level short-wave will approach Anchorage late
tonight. There could be some showers as early as 09Z, but the
best time period for rain will be 12Z to 18Z. Ceilings will most
likely drop to MVFR during this period, then improve as
southeasterly downslope flow cuts off rain by late morning or
midday Thursday. A Turnagain Arm jet will develop Thursday
morning, bringing a return of gusty southeast winds at the
terminal somewhere in the 18Z to 21Z time frame.

-SEB

&&


$$