Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

939
FXAK68 PAFC 061337
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 AM AKST Fri Feb 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Sunday night)...

Satellite imagery this morning shows a weak upper level trough
exiting Southcentral as it lifts into the Interior. A shortwave
ridge is building north from the Gulf into Southcentral. Skies
have cleared across much of the region. The exceptions are the
southern and eastern Kenai Peninsula and the western Susitna
Valley where overcast skies prevail in some weak upslope flow.
Temperatures have dropped below freezing where skies have cleared
and are holding just above freezing in cloudy areas.

Meanwhile, a new large vertically stacked low has set up shop in
the northeast Pacific. Numerous shortwaves along the eastern
periphery of the larger trough are rotating northward toward the
Gulf. The leading shortwave and surface low are just about to
enter the southeastern Gulf. These will track westward across the
Gulf today through tonight as the main low in the Northeast
Pacific tracks eastward underneath it. The forecast is largely on
track for a weak front to spread north and west across the Gulf
and then dissipate before it reaches the Gulf coast Saturday. Low
elevation rain and mountain snow will spread onshore of Kodiak
Island and the north Gulf coast overnight tonight through
Saturday. Unlike storms from the past several days, precipitation
will be uniformly light. Some gusty northerly winds will affect
Kodiak Island and the western Gulf. Otherwise, winds over
Southcentral will be light.

A trough digging southward across northern Alaska Saturday through
Saturday night will lead to low level southerly flow over
Southcentral, helping to gradually advect moisture and light
precipitation inland. There could be some mixed precipitation at
the start for the western Kenai, Anchorage and the Mat Valley.
However, as the atmosphere saturates expect a transition to all
snow.

A short-wave trough crossing the Bering Sea will then arrive in
Southcentral Sunday night. Model spread is large on the track and
shape of this trough. Guidance also disagrees on whether this
trough phases with the Interior Arctic trough. Nonetheless,
chances are high that this trough will act upon the moisture in
place and lead to heavier snowfall Sunday night through Monday.
Low level southwest flow favors Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley,
the eastern Susitna Valley, and the Denali Highway to Paxson
corridor up along the Alaska Range for accumulating snow. The best
window for accumulating snow looks to be Sunday afternoon through
Monday afternoon. Stay tuned, as the uncertainty in the upper
levels leads to low confidence in snow totals at this point in
time. Meanwhile, the arrival of cooler air with the trough will
lead to lowering snow levels for coastal areas, with potential
for snow to get all the way down to sea level by Sunday night or
Monday.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3:)...


A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta
for a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain through noon today.
The wave of moisture will lift north of the area this afternoon
allowing Southwest Alaska to see mostly dry conditions through the
weekend; the one exception being possible showers along the SW
coast Sunday morning.

The main weather maker in the forecast comes in the form of a
strong low pressure system moving to just west of Kamchatka by
late Friday night. It will send its front across the western and
central Aleutians through the day Saturday with gale to storm
force winds and moderate precipitation as it marches eastward. A
vigorous trough rotating around the aforementioned parent low will
rapidly deepen and form its owned closed center as it barrels
across the Aleutian Chain near Adak and Atka early Sunday morning.
Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are likely for these communities
as it moves north into the Bering Sea. The Pribilof Islands will
also see a period of high winds Sunday evening, although the
severity of them will be greatly dependent on how far east the
storm tracks. This is followed by an even stronger low crossing
the Aleutians on Monday. Along with strong winds for most of
western Alaska and the Bering Sea, this system will draw up plenty
of moisture and send a front of moderate to heavy snow and mixed
precipitation over Southwest Alaska by Tuesday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Monday through
Thursday)...

Starting in the Gulf of Alaska, a once complex low pressure system
looks to weaken and open into a trough centered over the Southern
Gulf. The core of energy looks to be exiting to the east by Monday
morning, leaving Southcentral Alaska in a unsettled pattern
through Tuesday morning. Also on Tuesday morning, a front moving
over the Western Alaska Range with some of the model guidance
suggesting a low to form near Kodiak Island then tracking
northeast into mainland Southcentral. Agreement seems fair at this
point for a low to develop. The expected track into Southcentral
may shift, with the general expectation currently being the low
moving over Kenai Tuesday night. A subsequent front moving over
the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday, may develop another low pressure
system near Kodiak again by late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
Progression of this system is still uncertain, with some solutions
intensifying the low in the northern Gulf through Thursday night.


Looking out west, several low pressure systems associated with the
aforementioned frontal boundaries will enter the Bering Sea early
next week. By Monday morning, the first low pressure system
appears to be located over the Central Bering, with the
best estimated position being just west or east of the Pribilof
Islands. By Monday afternoon, the low may shift northward with
some solutions bringing a slightly weakened feature into Southwest
Alaska. At the same time, a new stronger low pressure system will
have crossed the Aleutians near Adak. This has potential to
produce another round of moderate to heavy rain for the Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula in addition to further potential for strong
wind gusts in excess of 75 mph. By Tuesday morning, model
agreement begins to degrade significantly. Some solutions exit
the low to the northern Bering by Wednesday morning, while some
solutions take the core of the low center directly over Nunivak
Island, which would promote potentially highly impactful weather
for the Kuskokwim Delta and the Greater Southwest coast beginning
as early as Tuesday morning.


Weak agreement for yet another low pressure system entering the
Southwest Bering by Thursday morning.

CL/LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light, variable winds are expected to
persist through the TAF period.

&&


$$