Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

212
FXAK68 PAFC 171436
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
536 AM AKST Tue Feb 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Much of Southcentral remains quiet weather-wise this morning...with
the exception of Kodiak where an incoming front and developing
surface low have brought moderate snow to the island overnight. The
heavier snow rates are expected to wind down in the next few hours
as the surface low dives southwards; however, light snow showers may
linger through midmorning. The back edge of this frontal boundary is
defined nicely on water vapor imagery with tropopause fold extending
up along the western AKPEN and into central Alaska. This front will
continue to push east this morning as the midlevel shortwave
translates up and over the ridge. A broad expanse of light radar
returns from the Kenai radar (PAHG) was also noted this morning, but
most of these returns are clouds, especially higher than 3 kft,
and a substantial dry layer between 3-10 kft will limit how much
precipitation makes it to the surface. Better chances for some
light snow as this front approaches will exist from Kenai
southwards to Homer with little to no snow accumulations anticipated.

The ridge will quickly build back over the region by this afternoon
which will set the stage for the development of low stratus and fog
for the typical areas tonight. The ridge will shift eastwards as the
next system approaches from the west. Several weak shortwaves will
move through the flow with light snow possible across Anchorage, the
Hillside, Palmer, and across the Kenai Peninsula Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday night. This trough isn`t particularly strong and
will move through rather quickly on Wednesday. Snowfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches will be common for the areas previously mentioned, but
localized higher amounts are possible for the Talkeetna Mountains
and the western slopes of the Chugach. This system will also bring
light snow to the Copper Basin as it moves through. A push of arctic
air behind this system will usher in colder temperatures and
another chance for strong gap winds later this week.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA / BERING SEA / ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

Currently, a front is moving through the Southwest Mainland,
bringing snowfall from Bristol Bay to the Lower Kuskokwim Valley.
The front will break up over the Alaska Range and precipitation
will end by late this morning. Meanwhile, another front is moving
through the Bering, pushing toward the mainland. This second front
will arrive by the early afternoon, allowing for snowfall and
gusty winds over the Kuskokwim Delta. Due to the threat of
blowing snow and reduced visibility, a Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta from noon to early
Wednesday morning. Once the front pushes inland, Bristol Bay and
the Lower Kuskokwim Valley will see a round of snowfall by
Wednesday morning. There is a chance of freezing rain mixed with
snow in Bristol Bay, particularly in the Northern Bristol Bay
coast as warmer air rises aloft. Behind this front lies weak
ridging/zonal flow. This will allow conditions to improve with
lower winds speeds and precipitation chances.

By Thursday, an Arctic trough will dip into Alaska and cold air
advection will follow. Temperatures will decrease over Thursday,
reaching the negatives in much of the Southwest Mainland by the
night time. Gap winds will in the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula are possible due to cold air and the trough dipping
down. The Kuskokwim Delta and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley may
reach the negative tens. The Bering will be relatively inactive
with a large ridge over it. This will change on Friday when a
front pushes into the Bering. This front moves eastward over the
day, dragging a plume of moisture and gusty southerly winds along
with it. Due to southerly flow, warmer air will move into the
Bering, allowing precipitation to be predominantly rain.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...

An upper level trough moving across western Alaska is expected to
dip south into the Gulf on Friday. This will transition the
pattern to a more amplified setup, with strong ridging building
over the Bering while a deeper trough develops across the Gulf of
Alaska. The trough will bring in an arctic airmass, spreading
across much of the Southwest and into Southcentral Alaska.

Conditions tend drier from Friday into the weekend as the ridge
strengthens. Clearing combined with cold air in place will support
radiational cooling and colder overnight lows. In addition,
northerly winds are expected to increase through most coastal gaps
along the Gulf coast as cold dense air moves south towards lower
pressure in over the Gulf. Although confidence in strength and
timing remains low at this time, the communities of Valdez,
Seward, and the Matanuska Valley will likely see strong winds
through the weekend.

By late Sunday into Monday, the ridge begins to shift east as a
new low moves into the Bering Sea. Precipitation chances may begin
to return to the western portions of Alaska, though confidence in
timing remains low.

LM



&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected to
prevail through much of the taf period. High pressure building
back over the region tonight will increase chances for fog
development.

&&


$$