Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

725
FXAK68 PAFC 110031
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A front bringing a mix of rain/snow over Southcentral this
afternoon is ongoing, however is expected to be fairly transient
with the front departing later this evening. A quick dissipation
will lead to an end of precipitation across even Southcentral
mountains tonight. Following the front, cloud cover is expected to
remain over much of Southcentral, indicating mild overnight
temperatures, potentially only dropping to near- freezing.
Saturday will see mostly drier conditions through the morning and
early afternoon ahead of a second trough. Areas of fog may build
along the banks of Cook Inlet tonight, potentially intruding on
communities such as Kenai and Anchorage, however will be fairly
short-lived. Kodiak Island and Western Susitna will be the first
locations to see precipitation late Saturday afternoon. As the
upper trough progresses, it develops a surface low in the northern
Gulf that will bring more widespread precipitation to Mainland
Southcentral from Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.
Conditions are expected to be slightly cooler, meaning higher
chances for light snow Saturday evening into the overnight hours.

Precipitation over much of Southcentral into Sunday morning will
hold on through the rest of the weekend. The type of precipitation
in question will be largely snowfall in the early morning, with
accumulations of new snow of 1 to 2 inches in Anchorage. By the
late morning and early afternoon, the precipitation type is
expected to shift to a rain/snow mix, leading to lower further
accumulations. By late Sunday afternoon and evening, precipitation
type may transition back to all snowfall, however precipitation
intensity will diminish as the upper support breaks down.

-CL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Southwest Alaska is currently situated between systems as upper
level transient high pressure locks in areas of fog and low
stratus for the region, particularly for Bethel and surrounding
areas. Due to overnight cloud cover and fog, the guidance only has
temperatures dropping to near 30F for most. A 500 mb negatively
tilted trough now located over Saint Matthew Island will continue
to lift northward towards the Bering Strait as a shortwave rounds
the base of the trough over the Western and Central Aleutians
through tonight. At the surface, an occluded surface low centered
over the far northern Bering will have its front draped across the
Bering to the Western and Central Aleutians. The upper wave will
help to enhance the front Saturday morning as the front moves
across the Pribilof Islands. With temperatures in the low 30s and
snow falling over the overnight hours, Saint Paul will likely see
some light accumulations of around an inch or so out of this
system. With temperatures warming above freezing coupled with the
high sun angle, further accumulation may prove difficult after
daybreak. The front then takes little time traversing the eastern
Bering and arrives to the Kuskokwim Delta Coast by noon Saturday.
More mixed precipitation can be expected across the Southwest
Mainland with snow at night and a rain/snow mix during the day.
Ridging will build into the Bering by Sunday with precipitation
becoming more scattered over the mainland as the front weakens.
The ridge will push eastward through Monday, with another front
following behind it.

The next system arrives Sunday morning to the Western Aleutians
as a Kamchatka low with an attendant high-end small craft front.
As the system continues to occlude, the global models want to
strengthen the northern half of the front to gale force and have
it draped across the west-central Bering in advance of a digging
upper level longwave trough. With temperatures solidly in the
upper 30s to lower 40s, this system looks to be a rainmaker from
Shemya to Adak through late Sunday.

-AM/JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Upper level troughing over the Panhandle and high pressure over
the eastern Bering Sea will lead to northerly flow over most of
southern mainland Alaska at the start of the forecast period.
Mostly dry conditions will be present with elevated winds through
the Barren Islands and Kodiak Island, which will diminish by
Wednesday.

A Kamchatka low with embedded shortwaves will transit the Bering
Sea, spreading rain showers over the Aleutians Tuesday and
Southwest AK Wednesday and Thursday. There is uncertainty among
models regarding timing of trough progression, but precipitation
is expected to work into Southcentral Alaska Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will remain near normal for the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The front that brought rain and snow this afternoon has
moves through but the partial clearing may low stratus and/or fog
to develop overnight. The air at and near the surface is saturated
so it is an environment conducive for either or both to develop.

For Saturday, the morning hours are still vulnerable to MVFR
conditions mainly due to stratus, but there should be improvement
to VFR conditions as the day warms.

&&

$$