Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

719
FXAK68 PAFC 150155
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 PM AKST Sun Dec 14 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Message:
Strong northerly winds and cold temperatures will persist for
Southcentral Alaska.

Synoptically speaking, the weather pattern remains quite
unchanged from the last couple of days. A strong upper-level high
remains over the western and central Bering Sea with a complex low
in the North Pacific extending into the Gulf. At the surface,
there is a strong North Pacific/southern Gulf low along with a
strong surface high pressure across northern Alaska. This
atmospheric setup is contributing to exceptionally strong surface
pressure gradients. This is especially true for the gradients
across Valdez/Thompson Pass, the Matanuska Valley, as well as
across the Western Alaska Range into the Susitna Valley. With a
cold airmass firmly entrenched aloft in the Copper River Basin as
well as along the Western Alaska Range and with a strong upper-
level trough pivoting from east to west across Southcentral, this
is causing high winds across the Matanuska Valley, Anchorage, and
Valdez/Thompson Pass areas.

So far this afternoon, Ted Stevens has reported a wind gust of 60
mph, Lake Hood with a peak wind of 71 mph, Elmendorf Air Force
Base with a gust to 73 mph, Palmer with a gust to 82 mph, Valdez
with a gust to 61 mph earlier this morning, and Thompson Pass with
a gust to 77 mph earlier this morning. Expect these strong gusty
winds to continue through the night before slowly diminishing
during the day Monday. However, winds will remain gusty at times
through Monday, just not nearly as strong as the rest of today and
tonight.

With respect to temperatures, The cold upper level low over the
Arctic is helping to keep temperatures colder than normal, but the
presence of the winds is keeping the atmosphere well mixed and
therefore temperatures are higher across the region than a few
days ago. While resulting wind chills are below zero in many
areas, they are not quite as low as ambient temperatures were.
This is the story for the rest of today, Monday, and into Tuesday
across Southcentral. The Copper River Basin will lose their winds
on Monday and then temperatures there will again plummet well
below zero.

Another shortwave will drop down from Siberia on Tuesday and
Wednesday which will help to enhance winds through the gaps of
Shelikof Strait by then. Along with these strong gusty northerly
to northwest winds across the Strait, volcanic ash could be
resuspended once again from the 1912 Katmai eruption, so this is
something we are keeping an eye on.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

The ever-present ridge in the Bering continues to remain in place,
allowing for Southwest Alaska to remain drier and colder. The main
concern is gap winds in the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
regions. Winds are currently gusting to over 50 mph at times from
Nikolski to Cold Bay. Windy conditions in this region are
expected to continue for the remainder of the forecast period,
strengthening on Tuesday when an Arctic wave drops south and
brings cold air advection. The cold air will enhance winds,
creating storm force winds out of bays and passes mostly in the
Alaska Peninsula. Dry conditions are expected nearly everywhere in
Southwest Alaska. However, a compact shortwave will ride over the
ridge and dive through the Pribilof Islands and the Eastern
Aleutians on Monday. This will bring a short round of snow showers
which, combined with gusty winds, could induce a period of
blowing snow and reduced visibility. By early Tuesday, the
shortwave will exit south and chances for precipitation will
quickly diminish. The only other opportunity for precipitation
lies in the western Aleutians, where a front will push into by
Wednesday. Precipitation will be light and in the form of rain
around Shemya.

The other main part of this forecast has to do with temperatures.
Ambient low temperatures across the mainland will be in the
single digits in Bristol Bay to the negatives in the Kuskokwim
regions. Wind chills will make temperatures across the mainland
feel 20F below zero or less. Temperatures will continue to cool
into the first half of the week as a cold air mass moves in from
the north, with low temperatures reaching the negative 10s in the
Kuskokwim regions and temperatures around 0F in Bristol Bay by
Tuesday night. Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday with slightly
warmer temperatures in Bristol Bay.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

The start of the long term is characterized by an anomalously
strong 500 mb ridge that extends from the North Pacific, over the
Bering Sea, and well north of the Bering Strait. Over the Gulf, an
upper trough continues to dig south and eastward. 850 mb
temperature anomalies from the global models suggest that much of
Alaska and the Gulf will continue to stay below average, while the
Aleutians, the Bering, and perhaps the western Alaska coast will
be above average for this time of year. One caveat to the cold
weather across Southcentral will be if we see more strong wind
events, as increased winds tend to moderate temperatures. However,
on clear and calm to light wind nights, expect overnight lows to
really bottom out. Models do diverge a bit of the placement of the
Bering ridge by the end of the long term, but it looks like none
of the global models want to break the pattern down. Expect
Southcentral Alaska to remain in a rather cold, dry, and windy
pattern for the foreseeable future, with periods of windy
conditions possible to likely for some of the usual drainage gap
wind locations. With cold air pooled in the Copper River Basin, we
will continue to monitor any upper level features that move along
the 500 mb mean flow that could help induce more density driven
katabatic winds for some of our valley locations.

-AM

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Very strong northerly winds and VFR conditions will
persist through Monday. Winds are expected to peak around midnight
but will remain strong through the TAF period.

&&


$$