Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

627
FXAK68 PAFC 221339
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 AM AKST Thu Jan 22 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

High pressure remains parked over a large portion of mainland
Alaska...keeping the weather relatively quiet with the exception of
low stratus and fog. Upper level cloud cover streaming north out of
the western Gulf has prevented many areas in Southcentral from
tanking in fog overnight, with only the Anchorage Bowl and a few
other places seeing periods of dense fog. The question will be if
the upper level cloud cover dissipates enough to allow fog to form
and how quickly fog might form if that occurs. The other will be if
we can get the boundary layer to mix enough later this morning to
clear any pockets of fog, or if we get socked in before we are able
to mix out. Regardless, with high pressure remaining over
Southcentral, fog is very likely to re-form by late this afternoon
and evening with loss of diurnal heating and the boundary layer
inversion reestablishes.

A North Pacific low will lift up north towards the AKPEN this
weekend with associated from lifting up across the western Gulf.
This will bring scattered showers to Kodiak Island and the Gulf side
of the southern Kenai Peninsula Friday with more steady
precipitation for the eastern AKPEN and Kodiak Island on Saturday.
Temperatures and vertical profiles look to keep precipitation
primarily rain with the possibility of a rain-snow mix at times.
Mainland Southcentral will remain generally dry with the exception
of a few snow showers working down into the northern Copper Basin
with a wave dropping southwards across the Yukon.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday night)...

High pressure extending across the eastern Bering Sea and southern
mainland Alaska will keep dry conditions, along with a mix of
stratus, fog, and partly clear skies in place over Southwest
Alaska through Friday. Out west, another Kamchatka low lifts north
out of the Bering Sea with its front trailing south toward the
next low to move through the western and central Aleutians. The
warm air associated with this incoming low will keep precipitation
all rain as the main impacts of gale force south to southeasterly
winds and rainfall remain west of Atka and the Pribilof Islands.
Winds increase today and reach a peak on Friday, as strong as
storm force for Shemya and Attu, with the low center passing just
west of the Near Islands. The low dashes west toward Kamchatka for
Friday night, and winds in the Bering Sea diminish rather quickly
with the exit of the low. Colder temperatures wrapping in around
the low will mean that precipitation associated with the front,
which lingers in the western Bering Sea into the weekend, may
gradually turn to snow.

For Southwest Alaska, expecting cold dry air to begin to scour out
fog near the surface today, though stratus is likely to persist,
especially in the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley into
Friday. Temperatures generally remain below freezing, cooling to a
minimum in the teens for most locations tonight before a pattern
shift begins on Friday. At that point, a complex North Pacific low
lifts toward the Alaska Peninsula, bringing warmer air and
rainfall primarily to the Pacific-side of the peninsula.
Meanwhile, increased southeasterly flow aloft in response to the
low will maximize over the weekend, which will allow for
downsloping and warmer temperatures for the Bering side of the
Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska. Temperatures approach or
exceed freezing, which will make rain more likely as weak
shortwaves lift across the region and produce some light
precipitation, which will be most likely in the Bristol Bay region.
However, some locations will likely remain below freezing,
allowing for the chance of some freezing rain. The farther
northwest one goes, the chance of precipitation decreases, but the
air at the surface will remain colder, resulting in a better
chance of freezing rain if precipitation does occur. At this time,
precipitation amounts appear to be fairly minimal.

Quesada

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through
Wednesday)...

The persistent pattern of upper level troughing over Kamchatka
and the western Bering Sea looks to continue through the rest of
the weekend and likely through early next week. Several shortwaves
and accompanying surface lows will lift in succession from the
North Pacific and across the western Bering, keeping windy and wet
weather conditions through the Western and Central Aleutians.
Weak surface lows as far east as the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak
will remain possible.

The upper level ridge that has been comfortably sitting over
Mainland Alaska starts to show signs of flattening as an Arctic
low over the Yukon and Northwest Territories sinks into northern
Alaska Sunday through Tuesday. Offshore, easterly flow at the
surface seems likely. Confidence decreases significantly by
midweek, but guidance points toward the Arctic low marching west
and phasing with the main trough over the Bering Sea. The high
pressure ridge that was flattening, would begin to rebuild across
southern Alaska with upper level southerly flow dominating the
Mainland. Embedded surface lows could make its way into
Southcentral, but forecast confidence remains low for the
trajectory of each of the surface lows.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Patchy fog as well as a ceiling near 100 ft will linger
over Anchorage and the terminal through this early this morning,
but will likely scatter out by the early afternoon. The setup
will remain conducive for low stratus and fog through at least the
end of the week due to narrow dewpoint depressions near the
surface, light and variable winds, and the strong inversion
remaining overhead. Periods of fog will be most common between the
late evenings and early mornings.

&&

$$