Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

005
FXAK68 PAFC 141308
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
508 AM AKDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Ridging out of the North Pacific has amplified and built across
Southwest and will push into Southcentral today, leading to a
beautiful day across the region.

Starting tomorrow, a series of shortwave troughs amid southwest
flow aloft will begin moving atop the ridge and into Southcentral.
The first front and associated precipitation reaches Kodiak
Island Tuesday night before then spreading across the Kenai
Peninsula and the rest of the area during the day on Wednesday.
Lingering cold air will keep most precipitation as snow during the
morning hours, but expect lingering precipitation, mainly in the
Susitna Valley, to mix with rain in the afternoon. The Copper
Valley will also get snow in the afternoon, so expect a quick drop
in temperatures in the afternoon for areas under snow showers.
Amounts will be very light with most locations outside of the
mountains not expecting more than a few hundredths to one tenth
of an inch liquid equivalent or trace to an inch of snow.

Precipitation looks to diminish Wednesday night as ridging builds in
wake of this system, but another front, tied a more potent low in
the eastern Bering, shifts into Southcentral again on Thursday
and Thursday night. There remains some timing differences with
various model runs, but Kodiak Island looks to get the next wave
of precip sometime Thursday morning before the rest of
Southcentral gets it later into the day and into the overnight
period. Snow levels will be similar to the previous day`s system,
though perhaps a few hundred feet higher initially due to the
timing. Locations at elevation should remain most/all snow with
this next wave.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday morning)...

A front is currently passing through the East Bering. This front
is bringing a band of precipitation along as it pushes eastward.
Precipitation will initially be snowfall, but due to warm air
advection snow will transition to a rain/snow mix or rain at the
back end of the front. Also behind the front over the Bering, low
stratus/fog is possible. As the front pushes inland by this
afternoon, snowfall will spread out across the Southwest Mainland.
Due to a cooler airmass in the mainland, precipitation will
remain mostly snowfall until Wednesday afternoon. Snow amounts
range from 1 to 3 inches before precipitation chances dwindle and
snow transitions to a mix of rain and snow on Wednesday.
Additional shortwaves will drift in behind the front, allowing for
mixed precipitation in the Bering and the Southwest Mainland
through Friday morning. Wind speeds will remain elevated, but
remain sub-small craft through Thursday night. Overnight snowfall
will allow for an additional 0.5 to 1 inch of snowfall across the
mainland Thursday night, but this will likely melt by the day as
temperatures warm above freezing.

Meanwhile, a ridge will set up over the Bering by Friday morning,
which will diminish precipitation chances and decrease wind
speeds. However, a strong North Pacific Low looks to rise into the
western Aleutians late Friday morning, which could bring strong
gusty winds and moderate to heavy precipitation.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An active pattern continues for mid-April with multiple systems
bringing precipitation and cloud cover to the region. Broad upper-
level troughing across the western Bering and coastal mainland
will be in place to begin the period, placing the Aleutians and
much of Southern Alaska in active quasi- southwest flow with
embedded shortwaves. Kicking off the period on Thursday,
precipitation will overspread much of Southcentral AK amid
southwest flow.

On Friday afternoon, the front of a strong North Pacific low
lifts across the Bering Sea, bringing mostly rain to the Aleutian
Islands and widespread gales to the southern Bering. As the center
of the system crosses into the Bering, winds weaken before
reaching the mainland, and precipitation evolves into a rain/snow
mix to all snow for the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Coast by
Sunday afternoon.

While uncertainty remains high concerning details beyond Friday,
the upper- level low will remain in place across mainland Alaska,
and unsettled weather will continue for Southwest and Southcentral
through the start of next week. Temperatures will generally be
near average.


&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Clouds above
5000 ft roll back in late tonight.

PA

&&


$$