Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

914
FXAK68 PAFC 131315
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad trough is in place over the Gulf with easterly shortwaves
moving into the Copper Basin as a ridge builds over the Bering.
This will lead to bimodal weather across southcentral as portions
of the Copper Valley continue to get light snow showers while the
western areas and Kodiak begin to clear out. Weather on Tuesday
looks quite nice and seasonal region wide as a brief shortwave
ridge moves overhead, producing sunny skies and temperatures in
the 40s. A weak shortwave will ride overtop the ridge on
Wednesday, producing some light valley rain and mountain snow
ahead of a shift later in the week back to steadier rain and snow
as a more significant trough moves in from the west.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Across Southwest, an upper level trough is beginning to lose
influence on surface conditions as it retreats south across the
AKPen towards the western Gulf. Scattered snow showers are
becoming more sparse, now mostly limited to higher terrain across
parts of the Kuskokwim Mountains, Alaska Range and Aleutian Range.
To the west, a weakening low moving over the Kamchatka Peninsula
is sending a frontal system across much of the western and central
Bering Sea today. A shield of cool cloud tops visible on GOES
West infrared imagery is fanning out along across a zone of lift
and moisture moving into the western Bering along and behind a
warm frontal zone progressing northeast with time. Steady rain and
gusty south winds are affecting much of the Aleutian Chain,
except for the Fox Islands, where a transient surface high remains
in place ahead of the approaching front.

Looking ahead, the Bering front will be the main focus as it
continues to trek across parts of the outlook area through
Tuesday. The front will arrive in the Pribilofs later this
afternoon, where things still look on track for a short period of
snow before warming temperatures transition precipitation to rain
later this evening. There could still be a short period of blowing
snow and reduced visibility before temperatures rise above
freezing, but it will be very short-lived. The front will continue
into the AKPen and Southwest on Tuesday as it begins to weaken and
occlude, spreading mainly snow across the region from west to east
through Tuesday night. Some occasional mixing with rain is
possible during the afternoon on Tuesday, especially along the
coast. Any accumulation will be light, generally 1 to 3 inches or
less through Wednesday morning.

In the wake of the weakening front, a series of shortwave troughs
will move into the Bering Sea as a more progressive, showery
pattern takes hold towards midweek. Clusters of rain and snow
showers will move across much of the greater Bering Sea region
late Tuesday into Wednesday, especially near a more potent
shortwave trough skirting along the Aleutian Chain for Wednesday.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Days 4 through 7 look to be somewhat on the active side for mid-
April with multiple systems bringing precipitation and cloud cover
to the region. Broad upper-level troughing stretching from the
Bering Sea to mainland Alaska will be in place to begin the period,
placing the Aleutians and much of Southern Alaska in active quasi-
southwest flow with embedded shortwaves. Kicking off the period on
Thursday, precipitation will overspread much of Southcentral AK amid
southwest flow.

Models begin to really diverge by/after Friday, but ECMWF/CMC
solutions are in general agreement with a strong low moving into the
Bering from the North Pacific, bringing storm-force winds, waves,
and general unsettled weather to the Aleutian Chain by the end of
the week and into the weekend.

While uncertainty in details is high, an upper-level low in place
across mainland Alaska will continue to bring unsettled weather to
Southcentral AK over the weekend into the start of next week.
Temperatures will generally be near average.


&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected today. Occasional gusts 15 to
20 mph are possible through the early morning hours.



&&


$$