Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

166
FXAK68 PAFC 201357
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
557 AM AKDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

* Showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon, primarily for
  the Matanuska-Susitna Valley and the Copper River Basin.
  Coverage of the thunderstorms are expected to be less than
  yesterday. If you hear thunder or see lightning, seek shelter.

* Convection decreases over the next few days. A low approaching
  Kodiak will bring rain today through Monday. There is low
  confidence with how far north the front will affect mainland
  Southcentral and when it would arrive.

Discussion:

An easterly wave is moving showers through the Copper River Basin
this morning. Some of those showers have moved through the lower
Matanuska Valley. A weak trough just south of the easterly wave is
across Prince William Sound with a few showers and low stratus
lifting northwestward. Showers will continue for the Copper River
Basin and midday heating will allow for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms. Confidence with this forecast is medium
to high (70-80%). The highest potential for thunderstorms will be
through the Copper River, north of Chitina up to the Alaska Range.

Meanwhile, a weak North Pacific low will lift a front northward
across the western Gulf, bringing rain to Kodiak Island today and
lasting into early next week as the low hovers south of the
Island. The front will continue to lift to mainland Southcentral.
The ridge over that is currently over the Gulf will get pushed
along the Gulf coast Sunday. South to southeast gap winds will
increase later on Sunday, including through Turnagain Arm, Knik
River, and Copper River.

Model agreement breaks down on Monday, a complex low appears to
form as the low dipping south across the eastern Bering Sea
interacts with the North Pacific low. This could allow some
movement of the low system south of Kodiak to hedge into the Gulf
of Alaska where broad troughing sets up. Rain showers is expected
to lift north across the Gulf this weekend through Monday, though
with poor model consensus, confidence is low with the timing and
northward extent of the rain coming from the parent low to
Southcentral. At this time, it appears that there is a weak wave
that reaches the coast Sunday morning and a more wet wave for
Monday morning.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday morning)...

Afternoon/evening thunderstorms across interior Southwest Alaska
will continue through the weekend. Meanwhile, for coastal
Southwest, Alaska Peninsula, and Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands,
areas of dense fog and low stratus remain likely as a ridge of
high pressure lingers in the Bering Sea through Monday morning.

Thunderstorms today will be more widely scattered compared to
Friday`s storms as the line of instability is pulled apart between
the southward moving low in the eastern Bering and southerly flow
into the Alaskan interior. The low crosses the Alaska Peninsula
by Sunday morning to join another low southeast of Kodiak. This
will orient the upper level flow from southeast to northwest
across the interior and bring additional shortwaves into
Southwest, however, reduced surface heating will inhibit, but not
completely shut down, thunderstorm formation.

Further west, the front will likely bring winds 25 to 35 kt along
the Aleutians. Steady, light rain will lift across Shemya on
Sunday morning, and Atka by Monday morning before weakening
Tuesday morning.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Next week will see unsettled weather for Southcentral Alaska and
the Aleutians. Low pressure over the Gulf will allow for increased
cloud cover over much of Southcentral with showers throughout the
week. A Bering Sea low will slowly track eastward bringing
periods of rain and gusty winds for the Aleutians before crossing
the island chain and getting swept into more dominant westerly
flow aloft.

High pressure system over the central Bering Sea will result in
generally fair weather for the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest
Alaska, but these areas could still see afternoon showers
developing along the western slopes of the higher terrain.

The track of the Bering low becomes more uncertain late in the
next week. Model consensus remains fairly high as the Bering Sea
low moves towards the Aleutians midweek, but confidences lowers
with the position of the upper low as it begins to cross the
Aleutians by late in the week.

-SS/PP

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$