Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

695
FXAK68 PAFC 301259
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

An upper-level low is crossing over the western Alaska Range into
the Cook Inlet region this morning. A zone of lift and
convergence out ahead of the main upper low center is supporting a
band of light to moderate rainfall that has set up between the
Turnagain Arm and Susitna Valley during the overnight. This band
of rain is not expected to move much over the next several hours
as the low skirts off to the south, but most areas from Anchorage
north to the Mat-Su Valleys should dry out by the afternoon hours
as the system exits to the southeast. Across eastern parts of the
outlook area, widely scattered showers are drifting across much of
the Prince William Sound and Copper Basin near and along a
shortwave trough extending out ahead of the main upper feature off
to the west. Temperatures area-wide are a bit on the cool side
for the end of June, with most spots sitting in the 40s.

There are few notable forecast changes to highlight, with the
general pattern progression towards somewhat warmer and drier
conditions towards midweek still looking on track. The
aforementioned upper-level low will move east along the northern
Gulf Coast this evening, then shift into the Panhandle region by
early Wednesday. Another shortwave trough developing on the
northern side of this feature will bend back west into the Copper
Basin tonight, spreading in steady, moderate rainfall near and
around the Wrangell Mountains. This will give way to scattered
showers by the afternoon hours as the trough weakens. There will
even be potential for a few thunderstorms (around 20-30% chance)
across much of the Copper Basin and Talkeetna Mountains, pending
that cloud cover clears out enough to allow for sufficient
instability to develop for stronger updrafts. Elsewhere, expect a
somewhat warmer and drier day for Wednesday as a very weak ridge
attempts to build in across the western half of Southcentral.

A generally dry and relatively warm pattern will continue into
Thursday, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms again
most likely towards the Copper Basin and northern Alaska Range
during the afternoon. The one truly wet and cool spot on Thursday
will be focused over Kodiak Island, as another weak low and
attendant trough push east over the island and into the western
Gulf and spread light rain into the region throughout much of the
day.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

Morning satellite imagery shows a trough moving into the western
Bering and a front crossing the Aleutian Chain this morning.
Showery conditions are ongoing from Unalaska to Cold Bay, and rain
is expected to persist through the afternoon hours. Yesterday`s
upper low over interior Alaska will cross into Southcentral and
eventually into Prince William Sound later this afternoon. Brief
clearing of precipitation behind the departing low is occurring
over Southwest and this clearing will linger through the morning
and afternoon hours. While today should be warmer than yesterday,
with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, and above 60 for
some locations, thunderstorms are not anticipated with diminished
instability. The next front then moves into Southwest tomorrow
morning with widespread rain chances returning to the region. The
aforementioned Bering trough will shift into the western Gulf on
Thursday, leaving the eastern Bering and Southwest Alaska within
northerly flow and what should be an active pattern, with multiple
northerly disturbances forecast to drop south across Southwest
Alaska through the rest of the week. Similarly to today, Southwest
may see another temporary break from precipitaiton on Thursday
in-between systems.

-BL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

An active pattern across Alaska continues over Fourth of July
weekend. A weak low over the Gulf moves into the Alaska Peninsula
by Friday night. This will decrease cloud cover through out Friday
over Southcentral. An upper level low over the Bering Strait will
bring periods of rain over southwest Alaska, before moving over
the Alaska Peninsula, then the Gulf Saturday afternoon into
Sunday. The low will remain nearly stationary through Monday.
Mostly cloudy with showers are expected for Southcentral and
Alaska Peninsula through the weekend into early next week.

A ridge is present over the western Aleutians, bringing low level
clouds and fog over the Aleutians. Saturday morning sees the
arrival of a North Pacific low entering the Bering. There is
significant model disagreement on the timing of the low moving
across the Aleutians. Saturday night will see a low form off the
front off of the North Pacific Low and progress eastward before
diving southward of the Alaska Peninsula Monday. The North Pacific
low will begin moving eastward Sunday and move south of the
Alaska Peninsula as well Monday night.

-SS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...periods of rain showers are expected to continue into
Tuesday. There is a chance for occasional MVFR ceilings through
Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds gusting to 20 kt expected to
continue through this evening.

&&


$$