Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

940
FXAK68 PAFC 011319
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
519 AM AKDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Satellite imagery from over the state shows Southcentral Alaska
being under a surface ridge with a shortwave trough stretching
across the Interior and a large low approaching the Gulf.
This large North Pacific low is pushing a front into the Gulf and
Kodiak Island this morning. the pressure gradient will
only increase as the low presses into the ridge over
Southcentral, but will not dislodge it. This will result in the
front stalling over Kodiak today into Tuesday night. A Flood
Watch is in effect for Kodiak Island due to this front and the
heavy rain that will accompany it.

For mainland Southcentral, clouds will overspread the surface
ridge today as the Gulf front moves northward, so today will see
increasing clouds even with the ridge in place. However, as the
upper level ridge edges into Southcentral for Tuesday and
Wednesday, a noticeable warming trend will be in store for these
two days. For Anchorage, after only reaching 60 degrees once so
far this year, Wednesday may see the first 70 degree reading of
the summer. While it is possible a sea breeze will keep the
official temperature just under 70, most of the Anchorage Bowl
should reach the 70 degree mark. Much of Southcentral will also
see 70 degrees either Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)...

Current water vapor shows a large ridge of high pressure centered
over the Gulf of Anadyr and stretching across much of the Bering
and into the southwestern mainland this morning. The other feature
of note is a large North Pacific low well south of the Southern
Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN). This low will send its front northward
to the AKPEN through today. Storm-force northeasterly winds are
likely this afternoon through early evening along the North
Pacific side of the AKPEN from southern end of Shelikof Strait to
the vicinity of the Shumagin Islands.

Moderate to heavy rain will occur across the AKPEN and especially
the North Pacific side of the AKPEN. Chignik and Perryville could
see between 1 to 3 inches of rainfall today through Wednesday
morning along with 45 to 55 mph winds. The Northern Bristol Bay
Coast will also see gusty northeast winds today with winds peaking
this afternoon and evening around 45 mph. A few gusts of 50 to 55
mph are possible but confidence in this is low. Special Weather
Statements have been issued for Chignik/Perryville as well as the
Northern Bristol Bay Coast, including Dillingham, to bring
awareness to the unseasonably active weather coming today.

Elsewhere across Southwest Alaska, expect clear, warm, and dry
conditions today with off-shore winds increasing beginning
Tuesday. The warmest locations Tuesday through Thursday, at least
in the low to middle 70s, will be the Kuskokwim Valley and along
the Western Alaska Range. Minimum relative humidities will also be
low for these areas with values in the 20s percent. Coupled with
breezy northerly winds, this brings an increased likelihood of
hot, dry, and windy conditions for the communities along the
Western Alaska Range and the Kuskokwim Valley.

Farther out west, the big ridge in the Bering has locked in low-
level stratus across the Unalaska/Nikolski, Adak/Atka, as well as
Shemya. Rain from the front impacting the AKPEN today will make
it to Unalaska by late this evening into Tuesday morning before
tapering off by Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure system remains
west of Shemya this morning and will not make anymore eastern
progress due to the Bering ridge blocking its way. Therefore,
expect low stratus to persist through most of the short-term
period across the Bering as the ridge persists.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An upper level ridge that is present over Southcentral will begin
to weaken and begin a slight cooling trend. A low in the eastern
Gulf could generate showers on Thursday. GFS has the center of the
low more western which would bring more showers while the rest of
the models have the low more eastern. Otherwise, partly to mostly
sunny skies with warm conditions for not only southcentral, but
also Southwest Alaska through Saturday.

On Friday, a ridge over the Aleutians beings to exit the region
and a North Pacific Low brings showers to the Eastern Aleutians,
Alaska Peninsula, and Kodiak Island Friday night. The low will
remain stationary from a blocking pattern through the rest of the
forecasting period.

-SS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. A brief period of LLWS early
this morning is possible as winds aloft around 25 to 30 mph
remain through mid morning. Southeasterly winds and gusts are
then expected to return to the terminal by noon.

&&

$$