Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

463
FXAK68 PAFC 180045
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 PM AKDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

As of this afternoon, a broad/weak vertically stacked area of low
pressure is tracking eastward across the north-central Gulf.
Radar returns show rain showers, and at times moderate rain
showers, rounding the coast and pivoting northeast to southwest
amidst the cyclonic flow. Elsewhere, easterly waves aloft moving
along the northern fringe of this low have helped convection to
form this afternoon across the Copper River Basin, which will
persist through the evening hours.

As this low continues eastward towards the Alaska Panhandle through
Thursday morning, there is high confidence in rain showers clearing
from west to east along the Gulf coast. In the wake of the low,
while surface high pressure establishes itself across the
Mainland, upper level high pressure also noses in from the AlCan
border, continuing easterly wave activity for the Copper River
Basin and Susitna Valley on Thursday. Less cloud cover in the area
will also allow Southcentral to continue its warming trend
through the first part of the weekend. Diurnally driven showers
and isolated thunderstorms (similar to this afternoon) will most
likely develop once again for Thursday afternoon. Model guidance
shows that the highest CAPE values/most convective activity will
form across the Susitna Valley.

Looking into Friday to Friday afternoon, the upper level flow
reorients as ridging situates itself over the Gulf and interacts
with a large upper level system moving over/near Nunivak Island.
This flow regime will begin to send southerly waves over the
Mainland. With models showing daytime high temperatures warming
well into the mid to upper 70s to flirting with 80 degrees Friday
afternoon, this timeframe looks especially conducive for widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms for the Susitna Valley and
Copper River Basin - with higher confidence for the Susitna Valley
seeing the bulk of activity with less coverage for the Copper
River Basin. There is also medium confidence in convection
(including isolated thunderstorms) forming across the Kenai
Peninsula Friday afternoon. The global models show that upper
level southerly flow and very warm temperatures continue into
Saturday, where the chances of thunderstorms will stay with us -
especially near terrain.

-AM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

Fog/low stratus persists over the Bering due to continued ridging.
The growth and decay of fog and low stratus over the Aleutians
will follow the familiar pattern of decaying during the day and
building during the evening. Over the Southwest Mainland, showers
and isolated thunderstorms are forming over inland areas with the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley seeing the most activity. These showers and
thunderstorms are drifting southward toward the Iliamna area and
will taper off by the end of the day. Chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms (20 to 30% chance) will continue in the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley during daytime hours into the weekend. An
upper low will move over the area from the north by Thursday,
allowing for cooler temperatures and non-convective rainfall over
the Kuskokwim Delta.

Back in the Bering, a low southwest of Attu Island is pushing a
front into the Attu/Shemya region, bringing gusty, easterly winds
and light rainfall. The front will stall against the ridge and
will slowly weaken through Friday. The ridge will eventually be
squeezed by the low out west and the low dropping into the
Southwest Mainland. This means that fog/low stratus coverage will
shrink to middle of the Bering between the Adak/Atka and Pribilof
Islands area by Friday into the weekend. Moisture from a low will
push into Southwest Alaska by Saturday, allowing for increased
rain chances over the Southwest Mainland including the Alaska
Peninsula. This will be non-convective, but isolated thunderstorms
over the Kuskokwim regions will be possible (10 to 20% chance)
before the moisture and cooler air makes its way north.

-JAR/ER

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Sunday will see unsettled weather for Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska due to a low moving into the western Gulf south of Kodiak
Island. This low will push moisture into the Southwest Mainland
and coastal Southcentral Alaska including Kodiak Island.
Widespread rainfall over the aforementioned regions will result.
Easterly waves moving into Southcentral will allow for shower
activity over the Copper River Basin and the Mat-Su through
Wednesday. The Bering will be in-between lows and will be
relatively calm through Monday. The Gulf low will begin to
progress eastward on Monday, which will decrease rain chances for
the Alaska Peninsula and coastal Southcentral while the Aleutian
ridge erodes during that time frame. The Bering low will slowly
move eastward through Wednesday due to a blocking high over the
Bering Strait.

A front from the Bering low will track across the Aleutians,
bringing a period of rain and gusty winds before the front stalls
and weakens between the Pribilof Islands and Unalaska by
Wednesday. For Southcentral, the Gulf Low continues moving east
through Wednesday, but rainfall will linger over coastal
Southcentral and Kodiak Island. An upper level ridge will begin to
build over the interior Monday night. There is higher confidence
for continued scattered showers and thunderstorms for the Alaska
Peninsula and Southwest Alaska from the anticyclonic flow and
easterly waves.

-SS/JAR

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least
tonight. Guidance is hinting at some low stratus and fog
developing along Cook Inlet and possibly nudging into the terminal
after 08-10Z as high pressure moves in for Thursday. Any fog or
stratus that does develop should erode by mid to late morning
Thursday as daytime mixing increases.

&&

$$