Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

464
FXAK68 PAFC 151400
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 AM AKST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Message:
Strong northerly winds will begin to diminish today, though not
end completely for areas prone to channeled terrain/gap winds.

The surface high pressure over Interior Alaska and low in the
eastern Gulf is keeping a tight pressure gradient over the region
early this morning. These High Winds are expected to lessen
throughout the morning with hopes that they will diminish under
High Wind Warning levels by noon today for areas that do have the
warnings out. Even with the pressure gradient easing some, once
these winds through channeled terrain start, they tend to keep
going until the gradient really diminishes. This looks unlikely to
happen over the next few day with the general pattern not
changing much. Therefore, areas such as Valdez and Seward and
Whittier will likely still see windy conditions for the next few
days. The Matanuska Valley, especially near Palmer, is in the same
boat with those northeast winds expected to diminish below high
wind warning levels today, but there will still be a stiff wind
coming out of the Matanuska River valley for the next few days.

For areas that see the winds diminish completely, expect
temperatures to plunge by 20 to 30 degrees as skies will remain
generally clear.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
Days 1 through 3...

High pressure over the Western Aleutians strengthens as it moves
slowly across the Bering Sea side of the Western Aleutians early
this week. Its center moves over Adak near mid-week. This results
in strong, sustained ridging over the Aleutians with
northerly flow through the Eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula
and Southwest Mainland into mid-week.

The past twelve hours ending at 4am today: Sustained winds from
30 to 40 mph with wind gusts ranging from 55 to 65 mph were
recorded through the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula.
Much weaker winds were recorded elsewhere across the region during
this timeframe. The remainder of today through this evening will
experience a gradual decrease in sustained winds and gusts through
the region.

Tomorrow, as the aforementioned high continues to move slowly
eastward, increased Arctic air accompanies a weak wave moving
southward into the Alaska Peninsula. This will cause the return to
strong winds through the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.
Late Tuesday morning, areas from False Pass to Sand Point will
begin to see an uptick in their wind gusts (40 to 50 mph) and by
the afternoon, this area of higher winds shift to an area from
Sand Point to Chignik with gusts ranging from 55 to 65 mph;
higher in the bays and passes. These wind gusts continue through
early Wednesday morning before subsiding.

Other weather hazards in the next seventy-two hours: Light snow
is expected today in the Pribilof Islands through the Eastern
Aleutians though accumulations of a trace are expected.
Daytime temperatures will remain in the single digits as cold air
continues to advect in to Southwest Mainland. Accompanied by
offshore winds, wind chills 20 to 30 degrees below zero are
expected. Another cold air mass moves into the Southwest Mainland
Tuesday/Wednesday with highs in the low single digits above zero with
lows in the teens below zero.

-Johnston

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

The start of the long term is characterized by an anomalously
strong 500 mb ridge that extends from the North Pacific, over the
Bering Sea, and well north of the Bering Strait. Over the Gulf, an
upper trough continues to dig south and eastward. 850 mb
temperature anomalies from the global models suggest that much of
Alaska and the Gulf will continue to stay below average, while the
Aleutians, the Bering, and perhaps the western Alaska coast will
be above average for this time of year. One caveat to the cold
weather across Southcentral will be if we see more strong wind
events, as increased winds tend to moderate temperatures. However,
on clear and calm to light wind nights, expect overnight lows to
really bottom out. Models do diverge a bit of the placement of the
Bering ridge by the end of the long term, but it looks like none
of the global models want to break the pattern down. Expect
Southcentral Alaska to remain in a rather cold, dry, and windy
pattern for the foreseeable future, with periods of windy
conditions possible to likely for some of the usual drainage gap
wind locations. With cold air pooled in the Copper River Basin, we
will continue to monitor any upper level features that move along
the 500 mb mean flow that could help induce more density driven
katabatic winds for some of our valley locations.

-AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Strong
north/northeast winds have peaked and will gradually weaken
through the day.

&&

$$