Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

081
FXAK68 PAFC 201452
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
552 AM AKST Fri Feb 20 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 Today
through Sunday)...

Northerly flow continues across Southcentral with an amplified
ridge across the Bering Sea and a potent short-wave trough across
Southcentral and into the Gulf. Arctic air is surging across
Southcentral behind the Gulf while pressure gradients tighten
between the high in the Bering and a newly formed surface low in
the northeast Gulf (near Yakutat). This is resulting in widespread
strong and gusty gap winds, particularly across the western
Gulf/Kodiak Island waters and the north Gulf coast/Prince William
Sound waters. Temperatures have steadily cooled overnight, with
colder windchills, across much of the area.

The forecast for the next couple days continues to be on track
with peak winds gusting to 82 mph overnight for Thompson Pass.
Kodiak City had several observations higher than 75 mph overnight
and the highest wind gusts there should be through. Winds should
hang around 45 mph throughout the day there. Confidence remains
lower for the peak winds in Valdez, as the NNW to N low level flow
is not as favorable for high winds in Valdez. The Matanuska
Valley winds continue to be on track for later today through
Saturday. This will all be driven by low level thermal and
pressure gradients while upper level forcing is not favorable
(with the upper ridge building in from the west. Thus, this will
not be nearly as strong as the wind events back in December.

A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the northern Copper
River Basin from Paxson over to Mentasta Pass and the Tok Cutoff.
Gap winds through the Alaska Range will persist all the way
through Saturday leading to wind chills as low as 45 below zero
overnight tonight through Saturday morning. Other areas of the
Copper River Basin could still experience quite cold windchills,
but winds are expected to die down as the coldest air temperatures
settle in.

Cold and windy conditions continue to be the big message through
Saturday. The upper ridge will then gradually build in from the
west, moving overhead on Sunday. This will cause winds to die down
across all but the favorable coastal gaps (which will at least
diminish significantly from their peaks). With the loss of wind,
radiational cooling will lead to some of the coldest temperatures
Saturday night and Sunday night. There is potential for high
clouds to move in Sunday as they round the top of the ridge. By
Monday, cloud cover should moderate temperatures to more
seasonable for this time of year. Otherwise, dry conditions will
prevail through the weekend into Monday. The next round of
moisture could move into Southcentral around Tuesday morning.

-SEB/Rux

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The forecast remains largely unchanged with high amplitude upper
level ridging continuing over much of the Southwest Mainland and
large portions of the Central and Eastern Bering Sea/Aleutians.
Cold, Arctic air will continue to filter south across Southwest
Alaska today and tonight, keeping overnight temperatures along the
interior portions of Southwest 0 to 10 below. Intense gap flow
will continue through mountain passes and out of bays along the
south side of the AKPen thanks to the impressive low level and
upper level northerly jet expected to develop near Bristol Bay
and Kodiak Island through today. Storm force sustained winds with
Hurricane force gusts are likely out of bays and passes east of
Chignik today, most notably out of Wide Bay. Northerly gap winds
will begin to weaken by Saturday as northerly flow relaxes.

A low near Kamchatka extends its front over the Western
Bering/Aleutians today, bringing rounds of winds and rain to the
area. The trailing feed of tropical moisture streaming in around
the western side of the ridge will mainly affect the western
Aleutians, with periods of steady, moderate rain likely for Shemya
through today before shifting east to near Adak through Saturday
night. The trough will gradually ride over of top the ridge as
the low pushes towards the Arctic, eventually looking to drop
south into the Southwest Mainland early next week.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Monday through
Thursday)...

Beginning as early as Monday high pressure begins to break down
over the Bering. The big player in the longterm forecast will be
an arctic trough dropping southward through Alaska`s interior and
eventually into the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday into Wednesday. Below
normal temperatures are forecast to overspread much of the region
by the middle of next week with models showing some areas across
Southcentral dropping to -20 degrees or colder, starting
Wednesday. With the colder airmass and strong northerly flow,
gusty gap winds are also anticipated from Kodiak Island up into
Prince William Sound. High winds will once again be possible as a
result.

Further west, forecast models are hinting at a shortwave trough
clipping the Kuskokwim Delta on Monday. Southwest flow on the
upstream side of the weakening ridge is expected to bring in
warmer temperatures, introducing a threat for mixed precipitation,
including freezing rain. The threat will overspread the Kuskokwim
Delta on Monday and then advance southward into the Greater
Bristol Bay region and King Salmon by Monday afternoon. Any mixed
precipitation will quickly transition back to all snow as an
arctic airmass overtakes the warmer temperatures late Monday
evening. The colder pattern is then forecast to persist from late
Monday through the end of the week.


BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions prevail with northerly low level wind shear
of 40 kts at 2000 ft before noon. Then, gusty northerly winds up
to 30 kts. Winds decrease by Saturday morning.


&&


$$