Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

134
FXAK68 PAFC 111257
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 AM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

-Cold Weather Advisory in effect tonight through 11AM AKDT Wednesday
for dangerous wind chills across Anchorage.

-Cold Weather Advisories in effect through 1PM AKDT Thursday for
dangerous wind chills along the Matanuska Valley, Southern Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound, Thompson Pass, Northern  Susitna
Valley, Northern Copper Valley, and the Tok Cutoff.

Discussion:

Another cold morning across Southcentral as very little has changed
in the overall synoptic pattern. A large upper level ridge remains
entrenched over the Aleutians and Bering Sea with troughing over
eastern Alaska and the Gulf. However, A few changes are in the works
as ridging starts to push across western Alaska. This will finally
nudge the trough and weakening upper low over the Gulf eastwards
today. Will this warm temperatures across Southcentral? Not really.
Cold arctic air will continue to funnel southwards and the only
moderating factor is the increasing solar angle and daylight hours.
The good news is the coldest air will shift eastwards into Canada,
though this morning and Thursday morning will still be quite cold,
we will start to see a slight uptick in temperatures by the end of
the week and into the weekend...albeit still well below normal for
this time of year.

Gusty gap flow winds will continue today for the usual areas (Copper
River Delta, Valdez, Thompson Pass, Seward, Whittier, etc) with the
strongest winds expected this morning then starting to taper off
Thursday as the gradient along the coastal mountains weakens as the
upper level ridge builds into Southcentral. Heavy freezing spray
can be expected today for near shore waters in areas of these
strong gap flow winds, including near the Copper River Delta,
Resurrection Bay, Valdez Narrows and Arm, Passage Canal, southern
Cook Inlet and Kamishak Bay, the Barren Islands, and Shelikof
Strait.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Today through Friday)...

The pattern of persistence continues over Southwest Alaska and
the Bering Sea, as cold northerly flow continues over the region.
Weather conditions across the region remain persistent through
Friday as a large, stationary ridge of high pressure remains
centered over the western Aleutians. Generally, much of interior
Southwest Alaska and the western Bering Sea will continue to stay
dry, while the Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska Peninsula, and eastern
Aleutians will contend with snow showers and blowing snow as
shortwaves track southwards around the ridge and across western AK
and the eastern Bering Sea.

Gusty northwesterly winds continue this morning across the
eastern Bering Sea, eastern Aleutians (Nikolski, Dutch Harbor,
Akutan), and southern Alaska Peninsula (False Pass, King Cove,
Sand Point). Blowing snow and visibility reductions for these
areas have improved overnight compared to yesterday, and are
expected to continue to improve through this afternoon as winds
relax today. Similarly, wind chill values will climb back to near
or above zero this afternoon as the cold airmass that has been in
place moderates.

Attention today shifts to the next shortwave in the northern
Bering Sea. This system will round the top of the ridge before
tracking south across the Kuskokwim Delta this evening through the
overnight hours, bringing light snowfall to Nunivak Island and
the Kuskokwim Delta through Wednesday night. While winds and snow
amounts associated with this system are fairly unimpressive,
conditions will still be favorable to see periods of blowing snow
and reduced visibilities along the Kuskokwim Delta coast and
Nunivak Island. As this system tracks south for Wednesday night,
expect another round of snow for the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula through Wednesday night into Thursday. The airmass
behind this system doesn`t look nearly as cold as what is in place
right now, thus, winds will be weaker, temperatures/wind chills
more moderate, and there will be less heavy freezing spray for
marine areas. Snow showers across the Kuskokwim Delta will be
reinvigorated Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a deeper,
more defined upper level wave takes a similar track across the
eastern Bering and across the AKPen. Snow showers along the AKPen
and eastern Aleutians will continue through Friday as northerly
flow persists and the blocking ridge out west remains.

-JH

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The long-term outlook remains mostly unchanged. suggesting a
complex atmospheric setup. An upper-level trough centered over the
northern Gulf of Alaska will stretch southward into the North
Pacific, serving as a hub for several rotating shortwaves. While
high pressure is expected to dominate the Bering Sea through the
first part of the new week, the weather will shift by Tuesday
morning as an upper- level low arrives, bringing snow showers to
the western mainland.

Regarding local impacts, a tightening pressure gradient along the
coast will trigger intense winds through the gaps of the North
Gulf Coast. Additionally, strong northerly flow and cold air
advection will lead to gusty gap winds and frigid conditions
across the Alaskan Peninsula. Model guidance is generally in good
agreement in this pattern that will keep temperatures well below
seasonal norms for both South and Southcentral Alaska through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty northerly winds should
diminish by late morning to early afternoon. Light northerly winds
less than 10 kts are likely beginning this afternoon to early
evening.

&&


$$