Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXAK68 PAFC 211404
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 AM AKST Sat Feb 21 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

An amplified ridge remains in place over the north-central Pacific
and Bering Sea this morning with the Gulf low having shifted
southwards overnight. The upper ridge axis will begin to bend
eastwards over mainland Alaska with axis becoming more SW to NE
oriented by Sunday morning. This will shift the main jet streak much
further south into the eastern North Pacific. At the surface, the
strong gradient along the coast will start to slacken today in
response to the departing low and surface ridge shifting east. The
strong gap flow winds that were ongoing yesterday for places like
Valdez, Whittier, Seward, and the Mat Valley will gradually decrease
today, though likely remaining breezy through this afternoon.
Thompson Pass winds will also decrease, but remain gusty throughout
the weekend. Temperatures have been slow to fall this morning given
the gusty winds, but many areas are expected to start falling this
morning as winds decrease and radiational cooling increases,
especially over the Copper River Valley where temperatures should be
able to fall into the negative teens and 20s. There may still be
some occasional breezy winds over the Copper Basin which will allow
for dangerous wind chills to develop this morning. As such, a Cold
Weather Advisory remains in effect this morning for the Copper Basin
and Thompson Pass where wind chills of 30 to 40 below are possible.

This cold spell will be short-lived as warmer air in the low-levels
surges into the Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska then spreading into
the Gulf and Southcentral by Monday morning, as a shortwave trough
rides up and over the ridge. Looking ahead to the workweek, a short-
wave moving out of Asia on Monday will drive southeastward toward
mainland Alaska, helping to squash the ridge and push it off to the
south. As a result, clouds and precipitation will move back into
Southcentral Monday through Monday night. This looks like it will be
a glancing blow, with a quick shot of snow before the short-wave
rapidly exits to the Gulf. Arctic air will surge back in behind this
system with another period of much colder temperatures and gusty off-
shore gap winds by midweek.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Cold air will continue across much of Southwest Alaska under the
influence of the high amplitude ridge, with overnight
temperatures in the single digits or sub zero for Bristol Bay and
the lower Kuskokwim Valley tonight. There will be a gradual
warming of temperatures Sunday and Monday as winds become
southwesterly and warmer air trickles in. This will, however, be
short-lived as winds are expected to flip back to northerly Monday
night when the trough riding over top of the ridge drops south.
Initially, the warmer air aloft over near-freezing surface
temperatures will create conditions favorable for a freezing
rain/snow mix over the Kuskokwim Delta on Monday, reaching the
Bristol Bay region by Monday evening. The aforementioned trough
will rush in cold air behind it, transitioning precipitation type
to all snow by Tuesday for the Kuskokwim Delta and Tuesday evening
for Bristol Bay.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through
Friday)...

A ridge breaks down over the Bering on Tuesday, allowing yet
another arctic trough to drop southward across Alaska late Tuesday
into Wednesday. This will result in another round of colder
temperatures filtering into much of Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska by the middle of next week. There is potential for some
areas to see minimum temperatures as low as -40 degrees, though
the increasing diurnal cycle at this time of year may inhibit cold
weather advisory criteria from developing over Southcentral.
Renewed gusty winds are forecast with the arrival of colder
temperatures, with the orientation of the upper-levle pattern
favoring a northwesterly wind. Strong gap winds will be possible
through the AKPEN, Kodiak Island and the Barren Islands, as well
as through the Sound and Kenai Peninsula. Upper level support, for
maintaining gusty conditions, is forecast to persist over the
Gulf coast and Southcentral through Thursday, eventually weakening
by Friday as a trough over the Gulf Coast shears apart. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, southwesterly flow into the
Kuskokwim Delta will support a wintery mix on Monday, though
increasingly colder temperatures behind a passing front should
transition any subsequent precipitation to all snow by the start
of the long term forecast period, with snow quickly clearing out
as well.

BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Gusty northerly winds will gradually decrease to under 10 kts
through early afternoon. Clear skies will give way to increasing
mid and upper level clouds working in from the west by this
evening.

&&


$$