Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

646
FXAK68 PAFC 040055
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3)...

A ridge breaks down and retreats toward the Al-can border for
Saturday, as the overall weather pattern becomes more complex and
uncertain with two upper-level shortwaves advancing toward
Southcentral. The first wave will track from south of the AKPen to
the western Gulf, as the main longwave trough over western Alaska
becomes more negatively tilted. The second wave will then move
from the eastern Gulf toward Prince William Sound as the flow
aloft becomes southeasterly ahead of the main longwave trough.

At the surface, a broad surface trough extending from Middleton
Island to Kodiak Island will strengthen into a compact surface low
east of Kodiak Island by early Saturday. There is good confidence
that the low lifts northward and eventually northwestward toward
Augustine Island, allowing precipitation to move over the
southern half of the Kenai Peninsula.

A second trough over the eastern Gulf will also deepen into an
area of low pressure as it lifts northwest toward Prince William
Sound by early Saturday afternoon. Guidance does diverge on where
this low will eventually go as it passes Middleton Island. The
GFS is currently the quickest with the progression and brings
precipitation into PWS by late Saturday afternoon, whereas other
guidance has the low continuing to linger along the upper
Panhandle between Yakutat and Cordova.

Needless to say, despite uncertainty, a pattern change continues
to be underway. Expect rain/snow mix along the north Gulf Coast
from Cordova to Whittier and along the Kenai Peninsula this
weekend. As temperatures warm during the day, expect
preciptiation-type to be predominantly rain with snow and or
rain/snow mix during the late nights and early mornings. Most
precipitation this weekend should remain mostly confined to the
coast; however, a period of very light precipitation, likely in
the form of snow showers, is possible late Saturday night into
early Sunday morning for the Anchorage Bowl. Stay tuned to the
forecast for updates to the low track for this weekend and updates
to precipitation totals.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Friday afternoon through Monday morning)...

Southwest: This afternoon, a deep upper level low remains nearly
stationary over the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta region, with areas of
light snow showers circling counterclockwise around the low.
Snow showers will be possible across Unalaska, the northern AKPen
and Bristol Bay as weak lift ahead of the upper level low to the
north spreads across the increasing low cloud cover. Models
continue to struggle with these low bands snow showers, which will
likely remain light and persist through Saturday as cold air
aloft and weak lift continue around this system. Precipitation
diminishes Sunday as the upper level low stretches out along a
northwest to southeast axis and begins to lift back to the north.
Its replacement will be an encroaching area of high pressure,
currently over the eastern Bering Sea, that will move over
Southwest from Sunday to Monday.

Bering Sea/Aleutians: The main feature of note is an incoming
front associated with a low located southeast of Kamchatka. The
front is currently approaching the Rat Islands, and will spread
mainly rain into Shemya tonight, and to Adak by Saturday
afternoon as low level temperatures quickly warm ahead of the
boundary. Precipitation and southerly winds up to 35 mph will
shift steadily east with the front across the remainder of the
Aleutian Chain through Sunday. Temperatures on the leading edge of
the precipitation shield will likely stay a bit colder, enough so
for the Pribilofs and Fox Islands to see light but continuous
snow from Sunday into Monday. A second low, slightly weaker and
less impactful, will follow a similar track as the first,
reaching the Rat Islands by Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A more active, progressive pattern looks likely by mid-week with
periods of increased cloud cover and chances for precipitation
across the Aleutians and much of the southern Mainland. Models are
in fair agreement through the first half of the period as an
upper level trough and accompanying surface low and precipitation
push east across the Bering Tuesday and across the Mainland
through Thursday. Models begin to diverge heading into mid to late
next week with increasing uncertainty regarding the timing and
placement of upper level shortwaves interacting over the Bering
Sea and North Pacific. A slight warming trend and seasonable
temperatures are expected to continue through the long-term across
both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$