Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

186
FXAK68 PAFC 010042
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A large disturbance that brought 0.15 to 0.2 inches of
precipitation to the northern Cook Inlet this morning continues
to move west to east and is situated over the PWS as of 4 pm. This
low, in tandem with a disturbance dropping in from the upper
Yukon, will keep showers and the possibility (20-30%) of isolated
thunderstorms over the northern Copper River Basin through
Thursday. In Kodiak, sunshine will prevail this afternoon and
evening, before unsettled weather returns as moist flow moves in
from the west ahead of the next low for shower activity by late
Wednesday.

In between these two systems, a brief warming and drying period
will stretch from the Susitna Valley, to the Wasilla/Palmer area,
to Anchorage, to the northern Kenai Peninsula, and and across the
northwest Gulf. This will bring temperatures to within about 5
degrees of normal for this time of year. One factor to look out
for this evening is fog development along the northern Cook Inlet
with clearing skies and a moist surface conditions. If this pans
out, we should see fog by about midnight, lifting around 10 am
Wednesday. However, if fog doesn`t develop, these areas could get
quite cold and overshoot our minimum temperature forecast.

Looking for clouds to build back across all of Southcentral by
Thursday.


AB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

Afternoon satellite shows shortwave ridge over the AKPen and
Southwest Alaska with partly cloudy skies underneath. To the west,
a vertically stacked low sits over the western Aleutians with a
front currently positioned near a line from the Pribilofs to the
southern AkPen. Currently, there are widespread showers along the
front. The front continues to move northeast through the night,
reaching the Bristol Bay Coast/Kuskokwim Delta by tomorrow
morning. This front looks to stall along the coast as the low
catches up. Closer to the low, small-craft westerly winds and
showers look to persist along the Aleutian Chain and AKPen
through Wednesday evening as the low moves east. The low reaches
southwest Alaska by Wednesday evening. Overcast skies, cooler
temperatures (highs in the 50s to low 60s) and showers will be
prevalent Wednesday across southwest Alaska with heaviest
rainfall (up to 0.25 inches) along the Bristol Bay coast and the
western Alaska range.


By Wednesday evening, the low from the Bering consolidates into a
longwave trough which will sit over mainland Alaska through the
remainder of the forecast period. Multiple lows will rotate around
the trough late this week. The first low moves from Bristol Bay to
the Gulf by Thursday morning. While the rest of southwest Alaska
sees a reprieve from precipitation, some precipitation will
linger in the AkPen on Thursday due to upsloping winds. This
reprieve looks to be short-lived as a second low moves south from
the Arctic into southwest Alaska Thursday afternoon. This will
maintain cloud cover and cooler temperatures (upper 50s to low
60s), as well as bring another round of precipitation Thursday
afternoon through Friday. This low will also increase
northwesterly winds to near small-craft in Bristol Bay Thursday
afternoon through Friday. While troughing sits over the mainland,
a ridge builds over the western Bering. Areas of patchy marine fog
are possible across the Aleutians and Bering through Friday.

- PA

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

An active pattern across Alaska continues over Fourth of July
weekend. A weak upper level low over the Alaska Peninsula moves
into the Gulf by Saturday afternoon. This will bring clouds with
showers to the Alaska Peninsula, Southwest, and Southcentral
Alaska for the holiday weekend. The low will remain nearly
stationary until Monday when the system tracks into the Alaska
Panhandle.

A ridge is present over the central Aleutians, which begins to
progress eastward until dissipating Sunday which will bring low
level clouds and fog over the Aleutians. A bering low will remain
stationary near Shemya then begins to proceed eastward overnight
Sunday. The low reaches the eastern Bering by Tuesday, bringing
clouds and showers in its path, including Southwest Alaska and
Alaska Peninsula.

-SS

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...The general trend will be for the showers to taper off with
ceilings and visibility remaining at VFR levels. However, due to
the amount of rainfall over the past day and cold temperatures, too
much clearing may lead to the development of fog overnight into
Wednesday morning. Winds will generally remain light through
Wednesday afternoon.

&&


$$