Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

972
FXAK68 PAFC 071310
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 AM AKDT Thu May 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Mostly cloudy skies with showers persist due to continued
troughing over Southcentral Alaska. The source of these troughs is
an upper low over northern Alaska. This low will slowly move
southward over the forecast period, bringing cooler air aloft
along with it. This cooler air will provide instability and will
allow for continued chances for rain showers through Thursday,
even for inland areas like Anchorage and the Mat-Su. Snow levels
will follow a diurnal curve ranging from about 1500-1800 during
the daytime and dropping to as low as 400 to 700 ft by Friday
morning. A Turnagain wind will bend into Anchorage Thursday into
Friday as a coastal ridge forms over the Chugach range and lower
pressure forms over western Alaska. This will also allow for a
Knik wind into the Matanuska Valley during the same time period. A
North Pacific low rises into the Gulf on Friday. This low will
interact with the upper low moving southward. The two lows will
create some kind of a convergence zone, allowing for precipitation
along the Gulf Coast with the potential for a barrier jet forming
in the Cordova region by Saturday. Inland areas such as Anchorage
will also see an increase in precipitation chances, but the
eastward trend of the North Pacific low has seen these chances
decrease.

-JAR/CJ

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Thu through Sun)...

The forecast remains on track with an upper-level low along the
North Slope digging southward towards Western and Southwestern
Alaska. It will continue southward into interior Alaska today and
then to the Lower Yukon-Kuskokwim Valley for Friday. An unstable
airmass is expected for Southwest Alaska as cold air moves in
aloft with the low. Expect showers to develop this afternoon
through at least Friday with the afternoons and early evenings
having the best chance for showers with peak daytime heating. Most
of the showers will remain confined to the terrain of the Western
Alaska Range and along the mountain ranges of interior Bristol
Bay. The lightning threat remains very low due to limited surface
heating. Showers will continue into Saturday as the upper-level
low nudges west over the Kuskokwim Delta as it interacts with a
trough lifting north through the Gulf of Alaska and drags
additional moisture into interior Bristol Bay.

Farther out west, a Kamchatka low extends a trough across the
western Bering through Adak/Atka. This troughing will linger
through Saturday morning before higher pressure builds in starting
Saturday afternoon. The result will be continued periods of
rainfall across Adak/Atka through Saturday morning. A stronger low
pressure system near southern Kamchatka Saturday morning moves
eastward through the rest of the day and sends its front to the
western Bering and the Western Aleutians by Saturday evening. This
will bring another round of gusty southerly winds and rain to
Shemya by then. Unlike the past few storms which had their
progressions eastward stunted (thanks to the strong ridge in the
Bering), this system appears to progress east along the Aleutian
Chain the second half of the weekend and into next week as the
blocking ridge finally weakens.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Models continue to remain in fair agreement on an active and
progressive pattern through the long term forecast. A large,
closed upper level low lingers over the YK-Delta and eastern
Bering Sea through the end of the weekend. This low interacts with
a system in the Gulf which will bring precipitation chances
across Southcentral through the end of the weekend into early next
week, mainly for coastal areas. A strong front pushes across the
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula bringing widespread rainfall and
elevated winds Sunday through Monday as a potent surface low
emerges out of Kamchatka and tracks into the southern Bering. The
front enters the Gulf by Tuesday morning and brings another round
of rainfall to Kodiak Island, the eastern Kenai Peninsula, and
northern Gulf coast through Wednesday.

&&





.AVIATION...

PANC...Light rain showers may continue through the early morning
hours before tapering off by late morning/early afternoon. Winds
will be out of the south around 10 knots this morning before
picking up with gusts to 25 knots after 21Z. Ceilings in the
early morning may drop below 5000 ft but will rise above 5000 ft
after 16Z.

&&


$$