Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

892
FXAK68 PAFC 130041
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 PM AKDT Tue May 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

Winds across the northern Gulf and along the coast continue to
slowly weaken this afternoon as the front progresses north and
inland. Moderate, steady rain is expected to continue through
tonight for western Prince William Sound, while precipitation
becomes more scattered along the eastern Kenai Peninsula as the
evening progresses. Another round of gusty gap winds out of the
typical spots across the Kenai Peninsula and Chugach Mountains are
expected through this afternoon before the coastal ridge fully
weakens with the frontal progression.

As the front lifts inland and dissipates through Wednesday
morning, the weakening parent low pivots across the Alaska
Peninsula into the western Gulf. This will mark the end of the
steady coastal rain which will give way to more showery conditions
as multiple weak shortwaves rotate northwest into Southcentral.
Shower activity over inland areas will likely increase as well on
Wednesday as the strong southeasterly, cross-barrier flow
relaxes. Similar conditions with widely scattered showers and weak
easterly flow will persist into Friday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

A complex low sits over the central Bering this morning with
several areas of low pressure rotating around its periphery. Gusty
northwesterly winds over Adak and nearby islands will diminish
overnight as a wave pushes through. Precipitation has eased across
most of the region, but not come to an end yet. By Wednesday
morning, rain showers will temporarily reinvigorate over the
eastern Aleutians, including Unalaska, Nikolski, and Akutan,
coming to an end by Thursday morning. Into Wednesday the complex
low over the Bering will begin to shift over the Alaska Peninsula
as the area of low pressure, tracks eastward and south of the
Aleutian Chain toward Kodiak Island. For Southwest Alaska, a
showery regime will continue through the latter half of the week
while southeasterly flow downstream of the complex low continues
within an unsettled pattern. The next major storm system will come
into the picture on Thursday. A North Pacific low and front are
set to track just south of the Aleutian Chain, but the front
itself may move over Adak and Atka with potential gales and heavy
showers.

-BL/CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Troughing over the eastern Bering looks to persist through early
next week and favor an unsettled pattern, especially for coastal
areas of southcentral Alaska. By Saturday morning, low pressure
will be situated over the eastern portions of the Aleutian Chain.
A front from this low enters the southwestern Gulf Saturday and
stalls in the northern Gulf Sunday. With a coastal ridge in place,
strong easterly to east-southeasterly winds are expected in the
Gulf as the front moves through. Peak winds look to be Saturday
afternoon through Sunday along the northern Gulf coast and
through the Barren Islands and Kamishak Gap. Additionally, chances
for precipitation this weekend are high along the northern Gulf
coast, Kodiak Island and eastern AKPen with upsloping winds. The
heaviest precipitation looks to be Saturday for Kodiak Island and
the eastern AKPen and Saturday night through Sunday for the
northern Gulf Coast. There are still some slight timing
differences with the progression of this front, details which will
be resolved in the coming days. Outside of the coast, most of
interior southcentral looks to be dry. Some light precipitation
may spill over the Kenai Mountains and Chugach Front Range on
Sunday. The main low looks to stall over the eastern Bering this
weekend and slowly occlude. This will maintain chances for
precipitation through the AKPen and Bristol Bay coast over the
weekend into early next week.

After Sunday night model agreement wanes. Ensembles maintain
troughing over the Bering with a potential ridge building over
western Canada starting Monday. Should this hold, general
southwest flow serves as a favorable track for additional lows to
move from the Aleutian Chain through southcentral Alaska. Only
some models currently hint at additional lows forming early next
week, hence high uncertainty. Nonetheless, the pattern early next
week will maintain favorable chances for precipitation for
southern Alaska, especially for coastal southcentral and areas
with upsloping winds.

PA

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR cigs and vis will continue. Models are trending towards
the development of a light southeasterly/Turnagain Arm wind this
evening, so have reflected that in the forecast beginning 03z.
There is still a chance of winds remaining northerly to
northwesterly instead - if that is the case, expect directional
wind shear to persist through late evening as winds will be
southeasterly aloft. Confidence is much greater for gusty winds
out of Turnagain Arm tomorrow afternoon.

&&


$$