Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

483
FXAK68 PAFC 040206
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 PM AKST Tue Mar 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/This afternoon through Friday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

* Cold Weather Advisories are once again in effect for the Seward
  area, Whittier, and Thompson Pass from tonight through noon
  tomorrow.

* Expect a gradual trend towards warmer and cloudier conditions as
  incoming storms begin to break down the ridge of surface high
  pressure over the Mainland.

* Though forecast confidence remains low to moderate, we`re
  monitoring the potential for widespread snow, with the potential
  for coastal rain, as a strong low pressure system approaches
  from late Thursday through Friday.

Discussion:

The general forecast picture remains on track through Wednesday.
An upper level Arctic trough remains anchored over Mainland
Alaska, keeping clear and cold temperatures in place. Cold Weather
Advisories have been reissued for the Seward area, Whittier, and
Thompson Pass as gusty gap winds will bring a return of frigid
wind chills. Confidence is fairly high that conditions will warm
by tomorrow as winds diminish, and as incoming moisture and cloud
cover helps to moderate air temperatures.

A low moving from the Gulf into the Copper River Basin tonight
will likely bring several inches of snow for McCarthy. There will
be a sharp cutoff in precipitation along the western periphery of
the trough. There`s still some uncertainty with where this cutoff
will be located, with about a 30% chance of snow for Thompson
Pass. Though unlikely, if any snow does fall, it could bring the
potential for several hours of blowing snow early tomorrow
morning, as gap winds will still be active through Thompson Pass.

Meanwhile, a short-wave over the Seward Peninsula will dig
southward across western AK and develop into an upper low tonight
before stalling over Southwest AK Wednesday through Thursday. The
subtropical jet stream in the Pacific will then reorient from the
North Pacific to the Gulf and help steer storm systems quickly
across the Gulf. The first, weaker low will arrive Wednesday
night and Thursday. Model agreement is slowly improving, which is
improving confidence that the low will largely remain out over
the Gulf offshore waters with little or no impact on land areas.
Shortwaves rounding the newly established upper low over Southwest
AK will rotate into Southcentral, bringing a chance of light snow
showers.

By Thursday into Friday, a much stronger storm moves in from the
North Pacific. There remains uncertainty with the track of this
stronger storm, owing to questions of how this incoming upper low
will interact with the aforementioned one lingering over
Southcentral. Still, this storm will likely be robust enough to
bring widespread precipitation across Southcentral Alaska, with
the potential for periods of moderate to heavy snow, as well as
rain along the coast. Due to uncertainty with the low track, it`s
difficult to say, for now, what snow/rain amounts or potential
impacts may be. Stay tuned.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1
through 3/Tonight through Friday)...

The bitter cold Arctic trough remains firmly entrenched over mainland
Alaska and the Bering Sea. A compact upper low and associated
short-wave trough are digging southward along the west coast of
AK, reinforcing northerly flow and cold air across the Bering
Sea. The prolonged nature of the pattern has resulted in growth
and advection of sea ice across the northern and eastern Bering
Sea. As the cold air moves over open water, stratocumulus clouds
and snow showers develop. These clouds and showers cover nearly
the entire Bering Sea and Aleutian chain. The air mass is fairly
homogeneous so any temperature advection is weak. As a result,
winds are fairly light compared with recent days (or weeks) and
snow showers are generally quite light. Southwest Alaska remains
mostly clear and cold. A short-wave trough over Bristol Bay is
exiting eastward toward the Gulf. There are some clouds with this
trough from Togiak and Dillingham southward across Bristol Bay to
the Alaska Peninsula and these clouds are slowly moving eastward
with the trough.

Over the past 24 hours there have been some large shifts in model
guidance with regard to key large scale features. The upper low
along the west coast looks like it will now dig farther south in
the Bering Sea through Wednesday before shifting east toward
Southwest AK. This will affect the track of a large storm system
moving out of the North Pacific Thursday and to southern Alaska
Friday. All guidance has shifted north and west with the low
track, though there is a large spread in both operational and
ensemble solutions. The storm track ranges anywhere from Kodiak
Island to Bristol Bay, create a high level of uncertainty in the
forecast. For now, have trended toward more wind and precipitation
affecting Southwest Alaska Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning, especially along the Alaska Peninsula and into Bristol
Bay. No matter what, the air mass will remain cold enough for
mostly snow. There could be some rain mixing in along the Alaska
Peninsula if the farthest west solution were to verify. The storm
will be fast moving, with the worst of snow and wind lasting no
longer than 6 hours in any one location. Snow and blowing snow
with reduced visibilities will be the primary impact to travel.
Stay tuned as continue to refine the forecasts once confidence in
the storm track increases.

Meanwhile, a second compact upper low will drop southward out of
eastern Russia tonight and across the western Bering and Aleutians
Wednesday through Thursday. A weak surface low will also form
beneath the upper center. This will bring stronger winds and
heavier and more sustained snow showers to the Aleutians from
around Adak west to Shemya.

As the low tracking across southern AK exits Friday, Arctic air
will come back southward across the eastern Bering and Southwest
Alaska, leading to an increase in winds and snow showers,
especially along the Alaska Peninsula. This will take us right
back to the pattern we`ve been in for much of the past few weeks.

-SEB

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Saturday through Tuesday)...

Upper-level troughing centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska
will extend south into the Northern Pacific, with multiple
shortwaves rotating around the trough. Some model differences in
the position and track of resulting surface lows lifting into the
Gulf will continue to keep the precipitation forecast confidence
below average for the long term. A lean towards the GFS ensembles
brings a shortwave over the Western Aleutians by mid to late week
with a shot of colder temperatures dropping southward out of
Northeast Russia and into the western Bering. Strong
northwesterly flow and cold air advection will lead to the
potential for strong gap winds across the Barren Islands and
Southern Alaska Peninsula. While forecast confidence is low with
regard to where surface features and precipitation ultimately
develop, forecast confidence is high that both Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska will continue to see below normal temperatures
through the end of this week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to persist
through at least 12Z Wed. Potential low-level moisture could work
into the terminal area tomorrow morning allowing for patchy to
area fog development.


&&


$$