Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

698
FXAK68 PAFC 180119
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
419 PM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Minimal changes to the going forecast this afternoon as the first
round of snow continues to move through the region. Anywhere from
just under an inch to a little more have been noted across south
central. As of the early afternoon, snow has ended in Homer.
Kenai, and then Anchorage and the Mat Valley through early this
evening. Following the end of the first round of snow will be a
break until about 9p to 10p for the southern Kenai Peninsula. As
warm air re-enters the area, Homer will see a mix turning to
freezing rain starting around 9p tonight. Kenai 10p, Anchorage
1030p to 11p and the Valley, an hour or so after that. At the time
of the expected rain, freezing/snow levels will be at or above
2000 ft and will not be fighting against any dry air to slow the
progress of precipitation making it to the surface. Indications
for the usual downslope areas are that the rain should be
relatively short lived, with Anchorage and Palmer seeing a 3-4
hour window of light rain, but locations right along Cook Inlet
(Homer, Ninilchik, Kenai) and from Big Lake north will see the
light rain continue into the late morning and early afternoon
hours.

--- Previous Discussion ---

Snowfall today will generally be light, on the order of up to 2
inches of snow, with most locations seeing closer to an inch.
Along the immediate coast of the eastern Kenai Peninsula, snow is
expected to mix with rain into Saturday evening as an easterly
wind advects warmer air into locations such as Whittier and
Portage.

There will be a break in the precipitation by late Saturday
afternoon before the aforementioned low drives north, bringing
with it another round of precipitation. Temperatures aloft will
warm through the evening and overnight hours, especially across
the Kenai Peninsula and locations in the lee of the Kenai and
Chugach Mountains, resulting in the wintry mix of precipitation
once again. Freezing rain and snow is likely for a period of time
from Anchor Point north to Wasilla Saturday night through early
Sunday morning. Right now, it looks like areas along the Sterling
Highway from Anchor Point to Kenai may have the best chance for
prolonged freezing rain, with up to a tenth of an inch of ice
accumulation. A strengthening southeasterly flow aloft should push
the bulk of this wintry mix to the far western Susitna Valley by
Sunday morning, then lifting north along the Alaska Range by
Sunday afternoon as the low moves inland and weakens.

By Monday, a warm ridge will begin to set up over the state,
leading to a return of a much quieter weather pattern.

-TM/SS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES:

 1) A Special Weather Statement is in effect for pockets of
freezing drizzle overnight.

 2) Southerly flow continues through Monday in most of Aleutians.

 3) A North Pacific low brings precipitation and gale force winds
    to the Western Aleutians early next week.

A fast-moving low through Bristol Bay brought mixed precipitation
to the area today. Rain, snow and a rain/snow mix was observed in
the AK Pen, Bristol Bay coastline and interior locations of the
southern Kuskokwim Delta Region with amounts ranging from a trace
to a few hundredths of an inch; highest in the upslope areas.
This light precipitation continues overnight with mostly rain
showers. Temperatures over the surface remain cool enough to
allow for isolated pockets of freezing drizzle this evening
through dawn tomorrow in the upslope areas north of Dillingham.
Light snow and fog is expected in the Y-K Delta this evening and
overnight.

Southerly flow persist in tomorrow in the Central and Eastern
Aleutians bringing continued warmer air and rain to the area. Wind
gusts through the bays and passes remain between 20 and 35 knots.
Light snow will fall in the Y-K Delta through the bigger story is
widespread fog across most of the Southwest from onshore flow.
Visibilities drop to between 1/2 and 1 mile overnight with slowly
improving conditions tomorrow afternoon.

Two upper level lows in the Western Aleutians brings rain and
gale force winds to the Western Aleutians as early as late Sunday
night and continuing through the beginning of next week. As these
move north and east across the Aleutians, cooler air filters in
behind it bringing a switch from rain to snow across the Western
and portions of the Central Aleutians.


&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Confidence is higher than usual for high pressure to build across
the state for the majority of the long range. The resulting omega
block pattern is expected to bring seasonable and relatively
quieter weather to much of the Mainland. There remains fairly good
model agreement on persistent upper level troughing over
Kamchatka and the far Western Bering Sea. Several shortwaves and
accompanying surface lows will lift from the North Pacific and
into the western Bering through mid to late next week, keeping
unsettled and active weather mainly confined to the Western and
Central Aleutians. Each wave will move in succession through the
Aleutians and Bering Sea, bringing multiple rounds of potentially
gale to storm force winds and precipitation for most of next week.
However, the main foreseeable challenge would be with the timing
of each low that lifts north across the area.

JH/Rux

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light northerly winds around 10 kts or less will persist.
Conditions will likely remain VFR as light snowfall pushes
northwards away from the terminal. A chance of mixed
precipitation type, including freezing rain or drizzle, will be
possible starting around 09Z through early Sunday morning.

&&

$$