Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

768
FXAK68 PAFC 060033
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKDT Tue May 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A trough and surface low near the southern Kenai Peninsula will
lift north into the Interior through tonight, leading to more
coastal precipitation and afternoon gap winds into Anchorage, the
Mat Valley and Copper Valley. Shower activity will increase this
evening along the western faces of the Kenai, Chugach, and
Talkeetna Mountains as lapse rates increase due to some colder air
moving in behind todays trough. Behind this trough is another
that is digging south into Southwest Alaska today, over Kodiak
Island tonight, and then eventually lifting slightly into the
Copper Valley and northern Gulf by late Wednesday. This will wrap
additional cold air into the area, leading to more instability and
widespread shower conditions for Wednesday. Additionally, expect
increased westerly winds over southern Kenai Peninsula marine
zones from Kachemak Bay and through the Barren Islands.

Yet another trough will drop south from the Arctic into Southwest
on Thursday, leading to more southerly flow aloft and additional
moisture and scattered showers developing in the afternoon. Energy
will combine with a broad Pacific low to bring another round of
moisture to Kodiak Island and the north Gulf coast on Friday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)...

Currently, an upper-level low along the Arctic Coast of Northern
Alaska extends a trough southward across Western and Southwestern
Alaska. This is helping showery activity persist across Mainland
Bristol Bay today. There continues to be cold air that lingers
across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) with northerly flow in the
middle levels in the eastern Bering Sea. This is helping some
snowflakes to mix in with rain across Port Heiden and Pilot Point.
The trough axis continues to slide eastward tonight into
Wednesday as the showery activity will taper off by then.

High pressure across the central and eastern Bering today will
drift eastward and nudge in across Southwest and the AKPEN
Wednesday and persist into Thursday. This will promote relatively
drier conditions and light winds across the area both days, but
especially Wednesday. The upper-level low, currently along the
Arctic Coast of Northern Alaska, will begin to dig southward
Wednesday and begin to make its presence felt over the Kuskokwim
Valley and along the Western Alaska Range Thursday afternoon into
the evening hours and Friday. This upper low will be accompanied
by cold air aloft and elevated instability. Thus, diurnally-driven
showers will be possible mostly along the Western Alaska Range
Thursday afternoon and evening. For Friday, a North Pacific low
sends its front and moisture northward through the Gulf of Alaska.
The upper-level low, now over the lower Yukon Valley, will
interact with this moisture and help to draw more of it over
interior portions of Southwest, including interior Bristol Bay
along the Aleutian Range and portions of the Kuskokwim Valley, in
the form of Friday afternoon and evening showers. Despite the
instability and cold air aloft from the upper-level low over the
lower Yukon Valley, surface temperatures, in the middle 40s, look
to be too cold for thunderstorm formation along the Kuskokwim
Valley, interior Bristol Bay, and along the Western Alaska Range.

Farther out west, a low pressure system near Kamchatka has sent
its gale-force front to the western Bering and Western Aleutians
today. Shemya has reported misty conditions for most of the day
along with gusty southeast winds. However, steady light rain is
currently moving in over the area. Light rain and gusty
southeasterly to southerly winds will continue into tonight with
winds turning southwesterly across the far Western Aleutians by
Wednesday morning. The front continues drifting east to Kiska and
Amchitka Wednesday as it weakens. At the same time, the previously
mentioned strong central/eastern Bering ridge will drift eastward.
This will allow a little more eastward progression with the
weakening front with light rain making it over Adak for Wednesday
morning. Atka will remain mostly dry through the first half of
Wednesday. A weak North Pacific low lifts to south of Adak/Atka
Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will spread rain across Atka
during Wednesday afternoon and evening and help to keep rain
going across Adak. Rain becomes more showery across Adak/Atka by
Thursday morning as this low weakens in place south of the area.
Expect continued cloud cover showers from time to time Friday
across Shemya and Adak/Atka as additional shortwave move eastward
to the Bering from Kamchatka.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Models have come into better agreement regarding the long term
forecast. The global models all have a large North Pacific low
entering the southern Gulf and moving northeastward through Sunday
morning. If current trends continue, the low pressure system
itself moves to Southcentral`s east, but does bring with it
precipitation, mainly for coastal Southcentral areas. Looking
aloft, watching a digging trough or closed low move over Southwest
Alaska, though the question of if/when these two features
interact is still rather uncertain. If they do in fact interact,
the much larger upper trough with the "right" orientation could
help tug/retrograde the low back to the northwest, which would
increase precipitation chances for coastal Southcentral. The next
order of business is a strong front that moves across the
Aleutians and eventually into the western Gulf from Sunday
afternoon to Monday afternoon as its parent low situates itself
across the southern Bering. After the front pushes into the Gulf,
details become fuzzy. All said, the pattern looks to remain
active through the end of the long term.

-AM

&&





.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail this evening under weak southeasterly
low level flow. The low level flow will then shift to southwest
overnight ahead of an upper level short-wave trough approaching
from the west. This will lead to lowering ceilings and development
of showers in the vicinity, with high confidence in dropping to
MVFR between 09 and 15Z. As the upper trough gets closer steady
light rain will develop Wednesday morning. Most likely ceilings
will stay in the MVFR category, but there is a small chance of IFR
ceilings at the terminal or in the vicinity.

Meanwhile, the terminal will remain right along the northerly edge
of the Turnagain Arm jet this afternoon and evening, making it a
challenge to determine timing of gusty southeasterly winds moving
in. The most likely period for gusty winds is 03 to 06Z, but it
could be a little longer than that. Once winds die down, they will
remain light through Wednesday.

-SEB

&&


$$