Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

605
FXAK68 PAFC 110137
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 PM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)...

Steady snow continues across the majority of Southcentral Alaska,
but especially across the Western Kenai Peninsula and portions of
the Susitna Valley. Kenai Airport has reported visibility less
than one mile for the majority of the day with Skwentna dealing
with low visibility for the past few hours. It has been quite a
snowy day across Anchorage as well with 3.1 inches measured at the
office since 9 AM this morning. Currently, snow is continuing to
fall lightly across the Anchorage Bowl. Expect another uptick in
snowfall intensity this evening as a vigorous upper-level
shortwave lifts up the Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet. Additional
snowfall across Anchorage will range between 1 to 3 inches with
localized amounts around 2 to 4 inches. Light southerly upslope
flow will also produce steady snow through the Paxson area of the
northern Copper River Basin. With this, Winter Weather Advisories
remain in effect for the Susitna Valley, Western Kenai Peninsula,
Turnagain Pass, the northern Copper River Basin (Paxson), as well
as Thompson Pass.

Steady snow tonight will become more showery in nature for
Wednesday as cold air works in from the southwest. There continues
to be uncertainty with where the heaviest snow showers and snow
bands will setup Wednesday. There are indications that the Western
Kenai Peninsula and even up to Anchorage will receive additional
snow. However, totals are very uncertain with snow shower
activity. Another complication that will influence where the best
corridors of snow showers develop will be the formation and track
of an additional low pressure system. If this additional low
tracks up Cook Inlet, like some guidance is advertising, there
would be more snow accumulation for the Western Kenai Peninsula
and into Anchorage. However, if this low tracks more along the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula, which some guidance also advertises,
there would be less additional snow for the Western Kenai
Peninsula and Anchorage and more for locations such as Turnagain
Pass, Moose Pass, as well as Portage and Whittier.

Expect quieter conditions across Southcentral for Thursday and
Friday as the next Gulf low looks to track the eastern Gulf and
Southeast Alaska. The only thing will be that gap winds through
the favored terrain and passes will increase Thursday and Friday
as pressure gradients tighten between the eastern Gulf low and
higher pressure inland. Stay tuned to the forecast as a complex
pattern continues to unfold this evening through Wednesday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES...

 - The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Pribilof
   Islands through 9PM this evening.

 - Heavy snow/blowing snow expected for coastal Southwest Alaska and
   the Kuskokwim Delta, with blizzard conditions expected along
   the Kuskokwim Delta Coast.

Very little change to the going forecast from overnight. The large
Bering low slowly is approaching the northwest coast of the
Pribilof Islands this afternoon. This low will continue to creep
to the northwest and towards Nunivak Island, before weakening and
moving towards Bristol Bay Friday. A front associated with this
low has already moved inland and beyond much of the Bristol Bay
region. However, the proximity of the low near the YK Delta, will
continue the blizzard and winter storm conditions into the
overnight hours for Bethel and and the coast. Some warmer air is
expected to filter in behind the front, bringing temperatures up
into the upper 20`s and low 30`s, though mostly remaining at or
below freezing for most areas of Southwest. Regardless of warming
temperatures, snow showers are expected to continue behind the
front, persisting (but lighter overall) through Wednesday morning.
Winds will gradually diminish but are expected to remain gusty
through Wednesday morning as well, resulting in brief periods of
localized blowing snow at times. Due to the amount of sea ice into
the Bering and shorefast ice along the coast, the threat of
coastal impacts is minimal at this time.

Despite the high wind warning expiring this afternoon, gusty
winds will continue along the Aleutian chain through late
Wednesday night as weak ridging noses in near Shemya and will
shift east. As the previously mentioned low shifts into the west
coast of Alaska, winds will flip to the northwest and usher in the
return to colder temperatures by Friday morning.



&&

ss/km

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The persistent upper level ridge looks to remain anchored in the
Pacific with several shortwaves rounding the top of the ridge axis
for this weekend. A low pressure system and its accompanying
front enter the eastern Bering by Saturday before pushing inland
across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula. The main threat
with this system at this time looks to be the potential for
moderate to heavy snowfall across much of Southwest Alaska and
rainfall across the Alaska Peninsula. Only slight weakening of
this system is set to occur as the shortwave further deepens as it
tracks across the AKPen before the surface low repositions itself
and consolidates in the northern Gulf for Sunday. This brings
increased chances for snowfall across Southcentral Sunday with
models in fairly good agreement for inland locations to see a
round of measurable snow. Gusty northwesterly gap winds are
likely along the southern AKPen up through the Barren Islands
Sunday into Monday as the pressure gradient tightens between the
departing low and a ridge building in the Bering. The low
continues towards Southeast Alaska by early next week while the
Bering ridge slides east to promote mainly dry conditions across
Southern Alaska early next week.

Uncertainty and model spread increases heading into early next
week as upstream activity in the western Bering picks up.
Deterministic models continue to struggle with the positioning and
phasing of several shortwaves rotating around broad upper level
troughing centered over Kamchatka. A series of lows pressure
systems and fronts will bring an unsettled pattern with periods
of precipitation and elevated winds across the Aleutian Chain
through early next week, though exact timing and details will
become more clear in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...IFR conditions in snow is expected once again this evening
with another period of heavier snow. For Wednesday, conditions
should be better with mainly VFR conditions. The big question for
late tonight through Wednesday is whether there will be any snow
showers of significance that move across the area. Winds are
expected to shift to the south this evening as the next band of
snow moves in which will also end the threat of low level wind
shear.

&&


$$