Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

099
FXAK68 PAFC 070011
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
411 PM AKDT Wed May 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Mostly cloudy skies with showers persist due to continued
troughing over Southcentral Alaska. The source of these troughs is
an upper low over northern Alaska. This low will slowly move
southward over the forecast period, bringing cooler air aloft
along with it. This cooler air will provide instability and will
allow for continued chances for rain showers through Thursday,
even for inland areas like Anchorage and the Mat-Su. Snow levels
will follow a diurnal curve ranging from about 1500-1800 during
the daytime and dropping to as low as 400 to 700 ft by Friday
morning. A Turnagain wind will bend into Anchorage Thursday into
Friday as a coastal ridge forms over the Chugach range and lower
pressure forms over western Alaska. This will also allow for a
Knik wind into the Matanuska Valley during the same time period. A
North Pacific low rises into the Gulf on Friday. This low will
interact with the upper low moving southward. The two lows will
create a convergence zone, allowing for precipitation along the
Gulf Coast with the potential for a barrier jet forming in the
Cordova region by Saturday. Inland areas such as Anchorage will
also see an increase in precipitation chances, but the eastward
trend of the North Pacific low has seen these chances decrease.

-JAR/CJ

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday evening)...

Currently, an upper-level low along the North Slope is digging
southward towards Western and Southwestern Alaska. At the same
time, the trough attached to this low, which brought showery
conditions to portions of the Southwest Mainland yesterday, is
weakening and flattening out as it moves across the Gulf of
Alaska. Expect dry conditions to persist the rest of today and
tonight. The upper-level low will move south to interior Alaska
for Thursday and to the Lower Yukon Valley for Friday. As it does
so, it will usher in an unstable airmass as cold air moves in
aloft. Expect showers to develop both Thursday and Friday with the
afternoons and early evenings having the best chance for rain
with peak daytime heating. Most of the showers will remain
confined to the terrain of the Western Alaska Range and along the
mountain ranges of interior Bristol Bay. The lightning threat
remains little to none due to limited surface heating. Showers
will continue into Saturday as the upper-level low, now over the
Kuskokwim Delta, will interact with a trough lifting north through
the Gulf of Alaska and drag more precipitation to interior
Bristol Bay.

Farther out west, a Kamchatka low extends a trough across the
western Bering just to the west of Adak/Atka. This troughing will
linger through Saturday morning before higher pressure builds
starting Saturday afternoon. The result will be continued off and
on light rain across Adak/Atka the rest of today through Saturday
morning. A stronger low pressure system near southern Kamchatka
Saturday morning moves eastward through the rest of the day and
sends its front to the western Bering and the Western Aleutians by
Saturday evening. This will bring another round of gusty
southerly winds and rain to Shemya by then. Unlike the past few
storms which had their potential eastward progressions blocked,
thanks to the strong ridge in the Bering currently, this storm
system does appear that it will make eastward progression along
the Aleutian Chain the second half of the weekend and into the new
work week as the blocking ridge looks to finally break down.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Models continue to remain in fair agreement on an active and
progressive pattern through the long term forecast. A large,
closed upper level low lingers over the YK-Delta and eastern
Bering Sea through the end of the weekend. This low interacts with
a system in the Gulf which will bring precipitation chances
across Southcentral through the end of the weekend into early next
week, mainly for coastal areas. A strong front pushes across the
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula bringing widespread rainfall and
elevated winds Sunday through Monday as a potent surface low
emerges out of Kamchatka and tracks into the southern Bering. The
front enters the Gulf by Tuesday morning and brings another round
of rainfall to Kodiak Island, the eastern Kenai Peninsula, and
northern Gulf coast through Wednesday.

&&





.AVIATION...

PANC...An upper level short-wave trough moving up Cook Inlet will
cross overhead of Anchorage around 03Z. Expect some showers in the
vicinity, but the terminal will likely stay dry with VFR conditions
ahead of the trough. Colder air aloft behind the trough will
destabilize the atmosphere and combine with surface heating to
produce showers. With deep southerly flow in the atmosphere, this
is a favorable pattern for showers to form over the northwest
Kenai Peninsula and track northward to Anchorage. These showers
tend to train over the same areas, so could persist for several
hours at the terminal this evening. Ceilings will likely lower to
low end VFR or MVFR in these showers, depending on intensity and
whether the showers train directly over the terminal. There is
also a chance of a brief period of reduced visibilities as well
in heavier showers. Showers will exit northward overnight and
diminish with loss of surface heating, so expect improving
conditions.

As for winds, gusty southeast winds will prevail once again as a
weak surface low tracks inland this evening and pressure rises
along the coast. The aforementioned low level instability will
also promote mixing stronger winds aloft down to the surface.
These winds will weaken overnight into Thursday morning, but will
come right back by Thursday afternoon with a strengthening
surface ridge along the Gulf coast and lower pressure inland as
temperatures warm through the day.

-SEB

&&


$$