Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

312
FXAK68 PAFC 281249
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 AM AKDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The overall synoptic pattern will remain active this week as ridging
over the eastern Gulf up through British Columbia keep the western
Gulf in general SW flow aloft. A series of shortwave troughs will
move through the flow this week bringing showers into portions of
Southcentral, Kodiak Island, and the AKPEN.

For today, AM showers will push north and east across western
Southcentral as a shortwave moves through. As of early this morning,
this wave is beginning to lift up towards the Kenai Peninsula per
satellite imagery, and will continue to lift northward this morning.
This wave is one of many waves that has rotated around the parent
low that is still rotating over the Bering Sea. This stacked low
will weaken even more today as it finally lifts towards Nunivak
Island through Wednesday. Expect to see some sun break through the
clouds later this morning behind the departing wave. However, colder
mid-level temperatures will allow for steepening mid-level lapse
rates and some instability to build by this afternoon. As a result,
convective showers are likely this afternoon with the potential for
brief downpours and small hail with the stronger showers.

The Bering low will send one final trough through late Wednesday
before finally lifting north towards the Bering Strait. This wave
doesn`t look to be overly impressive with just some scattered
showers and increased cloud cover Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning. However, colder air filtering in will allow for snow levels
to drop below 1000 ft. As such, could see a mix of rain and snow
accompanying these showers. Warmer air begins to push back in
Thursday and Friday bringing snow levels back up above 1500 ft.
This system will skirt the Aleutian Islands before lifting up
towards Bristol Bay with steady rain moving back across Kodiak
Island.


- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

Little change to the previous forecast as the large Bering Sea
low continues to slowly weaken as it begins to drift to the
northeast across the Pribilof Islands today. Presently progged at
around 980 mb this morning, this low will weaken through the
middle of the week before being absorbed into a younger low moving
up from the North Pacific. This next storm system will continue
to provide the biggest impacts to the region through the week.

On and off showery conditions return to the AKPen and Southwest
Alaska today as the low center nudges to the east, with broad
southerly winds accompanying. Farther west along the Aleutian
Chain, never ending westerly winds and rain will continue through
this afternoon before diminishing from west to east this evening
through the overnight hours tonight as a small, transient ridge
noses in ahead of an approaching NW Pacific low. This next low,
set to impact Adak and areas east, will not be as potent as last
week`s system, but will bring more precipitation and westerly
winds. Across the YK Delta, light snow will be possible tomorrow
night into Thursday morning, starting at higher elevations and
eventually working down to the surface near the coast from Toksook
Bay to Kongiganak. Rain or a rain/snow mix can be expected
elsewhere across Southwest Alaska as south-southeasterly flow
allow for temperatures to quickly warm into the upper 30s and low
40s Thursday morning.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

By Friday, two North Pacific lows merge just south of the
Aleutian chain, forming another fairly robust system that lifts
into the Southern Bering. This system will once again tap into
deep Subtropical moisture, with strong southerly flow moving
across must of Southwestern Alaska as the system migrates into the
Eastern Bering/Bristol Bay area. The low will then lift up the
coast, sending a front or two through the Northern Gulf and into
Southcentral on Saturday. This will bring warmer and wet weather
through weekend, particularly for coastal regions, such as the
Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound.

Looking ahead to next week, some model guidance (ECMWF & GFS)
indicate a pattern shift, with a broad area of high pressure
setting up over Southcentral. This would bring drier, more
seasonal weather to the region. Other models, such as the
Canadian, have this unsettled pattern continuing, with low
pressure systems persisting in the Bering and swinging more
fronts through the Gulf.


&&





.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR to MVFR ceilings with periodic light rain and
southerly flow are expected through the forecast period.

&&


$$