Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

826
FXAK68 PAFC 011304
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

The upper level pattern across Southcentral is becoming
increasingly disorganized and defined by very weak mid to upper
level flow. In other words, Southcentral is now situated in
between larger weather systems, and conditions over the next
several days will mostly be dictated by small scale disturbances
that will be tricky to predict with a high level of precision.

The main upper low that brought parts of Anchorage and the Mat-Su
a very wet morning yesterday is now making an exit towards the
Alaska Panhandle. Farther north, a shortwave trough extending from
the main low is arcing southwest into the Copper River Basin.
This feature is helping to support steady, light rainfall across
northeastern portions of the Basin, including along much of the
Tok Cutoff. Farther west, low clouds and fog have mostly remained
at bay overnight. Mostly clear skies and calm winds have allowed
temperatures to fall into downright chilly territory, with a few
spots over interior valleys dropping all the way into the mid to
upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly rebound back closer to more
seasonable levels as ample sun returns through much of the day.

Very little change is expected to the overarching pattern through
Friday as Southcentral continues to sit in a col in between
stronger areas of low and high pressure. The main concern for the
next few afternoons will be isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, particularly across parts of the Copper River Basin
and Talkeetna Mountains. The best potential (around 50 to 70%
chance) to see at least a few lightning strikes will be focused
out ahead of a weak shortwave trough drifting over the northern
Copper Basin and Alaska Range on Thursday afternoon. Elsewhere
across the southern Mainland, expect potential for afternoon
showers through Friday, mostly near and over the mountains each
day. Meanwhile, a weak low and frontal system will move across the
southern Gulf from tonight into Thursday night, pushing areas of
rain across Kodiak Island as it brushes past.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

A Bering front will bring expanding showers across Southwest
Alaska through this afternoon. The greatest coverage of rain
activity is expected south and east of the Kuskokwim River all the
way down to Iliamna Lake and southward into the Alaska Peninsula,
where a shortwave trough phases with the front later this
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible
elsewhere, though activity is more likely to be intermittent with
much of the upper-level energy being directed southeastward toward
the western Gulf.

Temperatures will be moderated and cooler by the influx of Bering
moisture. However, areas that see any clearing will still warm
into the upper 50s/lower 60s, primarily along the northern fringe
of the Kuskokwim Delta into the Kuskokwim Valley, including Aniak,
Sleetmute and Lime Village. This afternoon light southerly winds
will increase in strength somewhat (think gusts to 15 to 20 mph)
as onshore winds into the Kuskokwim Bay and Bristol Bay push up
into New Stuyahok and Aniak, as well as communities along the
Kuskokwim River. Winds then diminish tonight through Thursday.

Rain chances become more isolated on Thursday before an arctic
trough dives southward into Southwest early on Friday. This trough
is highly unseasonable and will bring some cooler 850 mb
temperatures through the eastern Bering and eventually into the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Gusty northwesterly winds
due to the cold air advection on Friday are likely to return to
wind prone regions along the southern Bering, though peaking at
around 25 to 30 knots, excluding the usual gap wind locations
through the AKPEN.

- BL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

An active pattern across Alaska continues over Fourth of July
weekend. A weak upper level low over the Alaska Peninsula moves
into the Gulf by Saturday afternoon. This will bring clouds with
showers to the Alaska Peninsula, Southwest, and Southcentral
Alaska for the holiday weekend. The low will remain nearly
stationary until Monday when the system tracks into the Alaska
Panhandle.

A ridge is present over the central Aleutians, which begins to
progress eastward until dissipating Sunday which will bring low
level clouds and fog over the Aleutians. A bering low will remain
stationary near Shemya then begins to proceed eastward overnight
Sunday. The low reaches the eastern Bering by Tuesday, bringing
clouds and showers in its path, including Southwest Alaska and
Alaska Peninsula.

-SS

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Ceilings and visibility will generally remain at VFR
levels. VFR conditions will prevail from the late morning
onwards. Winds will generally remain light through Wednesday.


&&


$$