Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

849
FXAK68 PAFC 060041
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 PM AKDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday)...

Lingering shower activity visible on radar imagery along the Gulf
Coast and the eastern Kenai Peninsula will continue to wind down
through this evening as the upper trough axis lifts north towards
the Copper Basin. Expect generally dry conditions to return in
between systems from Monday into Monday night as a transient upper
ridge moves overhead. A lingering coastal trough coupled with
strong westerlies developing aloft will support offshore gap winds
picking up in the usual spots along the Gulf coast from late
tonight into Monday afternoon.

From late Monday into Tuesday, attention turns to the next system
expected to impact much of the forecast area early this week. A
large low moving over the Bering Sea will send a front across
Southcentral from southwest to northeast, first reaching Kodiak
and the southern Kenai Peninsula late Monday night. Temperatures
will likely be warm enough for precipitation to start as rain
across most of Kodiak Island as the front approaches. Farther
north, the air mass in place has a much better chance to support
snow on the leading edge of precipitation filling in ahead of the
front as it continues to lift north across the Kenai Peninsula and
southern Cook Inlet on Tuesday morning. However, expect some
issues with snow changing over to rain during the afternoon hours
as temperatures warm into the 30s to low 40s. In addition, expect
more of an upslope/downslope signature to pick up in precipitation
as southeasterly flow increases out ahead of the frontal
boundary. Much of the northern Susitna Valley, eastern Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound will continue to see steady
rain and snow through Wednesday morning, while much of the Mat
Valley, Anchorage and interior Copper Basin dry back out by
Tuesday afternoon.

-AS/JH

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Active weather pattern across the Bering Sea looking to shift
towards the Southwest Alaska coastline, bringing precipitation and
blowing snow to areas. Currently, a strong front is stretched out
across the Central Bering Sea, bringing southeasterly winds to
the eastern portion of the Aleutians including Unalaska, Nikolski,
Akutan, up to the Pribilofs. Along the Aleutians, temperatures
are warm enough for the precipitation associated with this system
to fall as rain, however the Pribilofs remain below freezing and
are getting consistent snowfall with southerly wind gusts. Areas
along the front that favor southeasterly winds such as Cold Bay
are seeing gusty winds driven by this system as well. Conditions
in these areas should improve overnight as the front shifts
eastward, moving over the Alaska Peninsula, and eventually into
the broader Southwest Alaska coastline by Monday morning.

By Monday morning, the front will be spreading precipitation and
gusty southeasterly winds across the coastline, with the front
expected to largely stall out, creating a long term, light
precipitation regime. The types of precipitation will vary by
location, given the differences in temperatures. Much of the
Greater Bristol Bay region will see an initial push of snow
through Monday afternoon, but with temperatures closer to
freezing, a transition to a wintry mix (rain/snow) is expected by
Monday evening. By Tuesday morning, a transition to mostly
rainfall is expected as warmer air continues to filter in from the
south.

Over the Kuskokwim Delta, temperatures are expected to be cooler,
and are expected to hold on to these cooler temperatures for
longer. This will allow the push of snowfall to persist through
Tuesday afternoon. The initial push of the front will drive gusty
southeasterly winds along the coastline including Toksook Bay,
Kipnuk, and Platinum. As such, a Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for these areas for snowfall of up to 6 inches through the
event, and periods of blowing snow reducing visibilities to one-
half mile or less at times. This Advisory is in effect starting
Monday morning through Tuesday morning, as this is when the
blowing snow threat appears to diminish, however snowfall from
lingering showers may continue in these areas through Tuesday
afternoon.

By Wednesday, the now trough over Southwest Alaska will promote
continued unsettled conditions with the potential for showers over
the area. Slight ridging over the Central and Eastern Aleutians
will give these areas a reprieve from the aforementioned frontal
system, however a new front will be entering the Western Bering
and Aleutians by Wednesday morning.

-CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

High pressure building over mainland Alaska will push low
pressure and associated precipitation into the SE Panhandle at the
start of the long term forecast period. Out west, a front moving
over the Aleutian Chain will bring precipitation and elevated
winds to the Bering Sea and Kuskokwim Delta Thursday and Friday.
Models begin to diverge by the weekend with increasing uncertainty
regarding the timing and placement of features, but a progressive
upper level shortwave pattern will keep elevated chances of
stormy weather for the Bering Sea and west coast. Forecast high
temperatures over southern Alaska look to remain around average to
above average through the period.


&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...Scattered to broken cloud deck of 15-20 kft will gradually
decrease overnight with the potential for ceilings to fall below
4 kft by 10-12Z and under 3 kft by 15Z. Some flurries or periods
of very light snow may accompany the stratus. Low stratus could
possibly linger into the afternoon hours Monday as high pressure
moves in overhead. There is overall low confidence of low stratus
development.

&&


$$