Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

277
FXAK68 PAFC 211353
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
553 AM AKDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

Today is the break between the last system and a stronger low that
is in the Bering Sea and bring a wet pattern back to Southcentral
for Wednesday which will persist into Thursday and beyond.

The warm front from the Bering low will move up Cook Inlet from the
southwest Tuesday night and will probably bring in some light
rain to Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley late tonight as it does
so. Being late at night, the precipitation type is in question,
especially with the snow that has mixed in with the showers even
during the afternoon hours the past two days. However, with the
warm front increasing showers and stratiform precipitation
9instead of convection with showers), rain looks to be most likely
at lower elevations. The expected freezing level over Anchorage
for tonight should be between 1500 and 2000 ft for Anchorage.
That, and southeasterly surface winds increasing late tonight
should tip the scales to rain for Anchorage and the Matanuska
Valley lower elevations.

By Wednesday afternoon, the main front edges into Southcentral
and brings with it the the deep moisture to start what will be a
multi-day rain event for the Gulf coast and even some other more
inland areas. There is a bit of a question with how much the rain
will be mitigated by downsloping for the leeward side of the
mountains. Models have some very diverse solutions about this,
especially for Anchorage. However, the IVT values Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday are significant enough that this deep
moisture and extra lift associated with the jet streak will be
enough to override downsloping and bring widespread rain into the
region.

This moisture moves over the Copper River Basin for Wednesday
night into Thursday, but Glennallen and other lower elevations
are more likely to remain mostly dry in the downslope as well as
get some strong and gusty southerly winds.

Seward, in particular, may see the most amount of rain in this
system. From Wednesday through Friday, Seward could see 2 to
upwards of 3 inches of rainfall.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

Rain and snow showers continue to taper off over the Southwest
Mainland as a ridge builds into the region. A strong low is
currently over the Shemya and Adak regions, bringing mixed
precipitation and gusty winds to those areas. This front will
slowly makes its way northeastward over the next few days. A
strong front from the low is pushing eastward, also bringing mixed
precipitation and gusty winds to the Aleutians and the Pribilof
Islands. By Tuesday afternoon, the storm strengthens to storm-
force on the northern periphery of the system west of the
Pribilofs. Heavy rain moves to False Pass, King Cove, Cold Bay,
and Sand Point by Tuesday evening. Gap areas in the Fox Islands
and the Alaska Peninsula will see stronger gusts as the front
passes.

The front will push onshore by this afternoon, bringing light to
moderate snowfall and gusty winds to Nunivak Island and the
Kuskokwim Delta. These gusty winds and snowfall will combine to
promote localized blowing snow conditions, reducing visibility to
1/2 mile or less at times into Wednesday morning. Inland areas
north and west of Bethel will see blowing snow as well. Also, a
period of freezing rain mixed with snow is expected over the
Kuskokwim Delta early Wednesday morning. Due to this threat, the
Winter Weather Advisory now includes the inland Kuskokwim Delta.
By Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will warm above freezing and
precipitation will reduce in intensity over the Southwest Mainland
as the front pushes eastward. The low itself will be positioned
west of the Pribilof Islands by this time, bringing more gusty
winds and precipitation over the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands.
Gap areas over the Fox Islands and Alaska Peninsula will once
again see stronger gusts during this period.

The low will weaken as it moves northeastward. By Friday, winds
and chances for precipitation will have diminished over the Bering
and the Southwest Mainland. However, lingering showers will
prevail across Southwest Alaska. These will likely be rain during
the day and a mix of rain and snow at night.

-CL/JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...


Precipitation continues across much of Alaska through the
weekend. A North Pacific low will enter the southern Bering near
Adak Sunday morning, passing the Pribilof Islands Sunday night and
pausing west of Nunivak Island on Monday. This system brings
widespread gales across southern and eastern Bering and Bristol
Bay before it weakens on Monday. The highest winds do not reach
the mainland, and concern for coastal impacts is low due to
shorefast ice and some added protection from the expansive ice
floe over the eastern Bering Sea.

The associated front from this system will expand into the
western Gulf of Alaska, drawing upon an extended moisture fetch.
Coastal areas in the northern Gulf, Kodiak Island and higher
elevations of the Alaska Range will likely see the most
precipitation. Away from the coast, expect several days of light
to moderate rain at lower elevations and snow at higher
elevations. Southeasterly flow will allow some downsloping to the
west of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

Model agreement on the track of this system has improved, keeping
the low west to slightly northwest of Nunivak Island, with
southerly flow bringing the main moisture plume into Southcentral
and Southeast Alaska. The minority opinion of the ECMWF places the
center of the system west of the Pribilofs, which would signal
higher wind and precipitation for those islands, but elsewhere
little would change. Shortwaves rotating around the center of the
system will bring slightly less intense precipitation to
Southwest Alaska through the first half of the week.


&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...Gusty southerly winds will continue through the morning,
tapering off by around 20Z, and remain light through the remainder
of the day. VFR conditions will likely prevail through most of
the period, with a slight chance of conditions briefly dipping
into MVFR with passing showers after 12Z on Wednesday. Winds could
become gusty out of the southeast by Wednesday morning.

&&


$$