Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

169
FXAK68 PAFC 011414
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
614 AM AKDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Friday evening)...

High pressure over the state will allow meteorlogically-quiet,
dry weather with temperatures near climatological averages to
prevail through the next day or two. Satellite imagery shows a
distinct dearth of cloud cover across Southcentral Alaska this
morning. The exception is mid-level cloud cover banked along the
northern side of the Alaska Range, drifting south over parts of
the Denali Highway and Mentasta Pass.

Along the coast, gap winds this morning will diminish as the
pressure gradient between the ridge of high pressure and a
surface low in the southeastern Gulf weakens.

By Thursday, attention turns to a frontal system moving into the
southwestern Gulf ahead of a low tracking east across the North
Pacific. The northern periphery of the front and gusty easterly
winds will approach and likely affect Kodiak Island, including
Kodiak City, through the day Thursday. Although guidance continues
to keep both the front and low well south of Kodiak Island, an
increase in moisture advection along with a shortwave riding along
the front, will allow for a mix of rain and snow across the
island through Thursday afternoon. It may be cold enough for some
snow around Kodiak City early Thursday morning; however, warming
temperatures should quickly allow for a changeover to rain with
little to no snow accumulation expected.

Scattered rain and snow showers may linger across Kodiak Island
into Friday as an upper-level trough and surface low move into
Southwest Alaska. This low will anchor itself across Southwest
Alaska for Friday, with some models suggesting a stronger low
developing on the frontal triple point of the aforementioned Gulf
low. Weather Friday night into the weekend will likely be a result
of how these features interact... but there`s reason to believe
we can be looking at more widespread precipitation across parts of
Southcentral entering the chat again come Saturday or Sunday.

-TM/Brown

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...


Key Messages:

 1) A North Pacific low remains south of the Aleutians through
the week`s end.

 2) Dry and clear conditions across Southwest Alaska continues
into week`s end.

DISCUSSION:

 Key Message: A North Pacific low remains south of the Aleutians
through the week`s end.

As a North pacific low moved south of the Central and Eastern
Aleutians overnight, a mix of rain and snow showers were reported
from Adak to Unalaska. Sea level observations reported a trace to
an inch of snowfall accumulation with higher amounts in the
mountains. As this low moves eastward, it will continue to bring
a steady mix of scattered snow and rain showers today from Cold
Bay east to Sand Point and isolated snow/rain showers east of
Sand Point into late this evening. The reduction in precipitation
intensity will coincide with the dissipation of the low`s front.
This low reaches the Gulf of Alaska Thursday evening. In its wake
on Friday, a northerly winds from Bering Sea trough move over the
Eastern Aleutians and a low moves southeastward from Shemya to
Adak.

 Key Message: Dry and clear conditions across Southwest Alaska
continues into week`s end.

Across the Southwest mainland, weak ridging from the north,
combined with clearing skies and calm winds, has caused the
development of widespread fog. This will dissipate late this
morning for most areas but hold on the longest for the greater
Bristol Bay region. Dry and mostly clear conditions expected
through Thursday evening with increased cloud cover for Friday.

-Johnston

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

By Saturday, the remnants of a triple point low in the northern
Gulf of Alaska may continue spreading cloud cover back over
Southcentral Alaska, including some light showers over the coast.
Easterly onshore flow along the northern Gulf coast will likely
promote showers for coastal communities. Out west, a large ridge
over the central Bering sea will continue to mute weather activity
for much of the region, however a low pressure system to the west
will be on approach. Namely, by Saturday morning a low pressure
system will approach the westernmost Aleutians spreading a front
ahead of the low center. By Sunday morning, the ridge may shift
slowly into the eastern Bering, allowing the low in the western
Bering to spread, but the strength of the low may have diminished
significantly by then. By Sunday afternoon, a north Pacific low
may approach the northern Gulf, but confidence on placement and
timing of this system is low and strength of the potential system
is relatively weak. By Monday morning the low in the Gulf may
deepen, intensifying its presence in the Gulf lending towards a
pattern shift for Southcentral Alaska towards wetter and cloudier
conditions. This is expected to continue through Tuesday.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$