Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

953
FXAK68 PAFC 171423
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
523 AM AKST Wed Dec 17 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

There is not much change in thinking for the forecast as the
pattern for Southcentral remains the same as its been for the past
few weeks; cold, windy, and dry.

Winds in the typical channeled areas including, the Matanuska
Valley, Valdez, Seward and Whittier are expected to be elevated
today. The Matanuska Valley winds should diminish tomorrow, but
other locations will remain elevates beyond that.

Gap winds around Kodiak Island will be be gale force with some
spots of storm force winds due to cold air advection. As for
Seward, Whittier and Valdez, the pressure gradient remains, so
winds will remain gusty for the foreseeable future with only
minute breaks in wind at times. The continued northerly flow means
that dry conditions remain, with occasional high clouds moving
in. Cold air advection and lower winds will allow temperatures to
cool to the single digits across Southcentral with low spots in
the Copper River Basin dropping below -20F and -30F.

On Thursday, an upper level trough drops from the north, This
trough seems to not be as strong as the previous one and is also
further east. Regardless, winds will increase in response to
pressure and temperature gradients. The Valdez area may see winds
gusting to over 50 mph at times. Thompson Pass could have gusts
over 70 mph. The Matanuska Valley could see a period of gusty
winds over 40 mph. However, there is a bit of uncertainty with the
exact track of the trough so wind speeds could vary depending on
which path it takes. This will especially impact the strength of
the Matanuska Valley winds. A short break occurs on Friday in
between features. Another potentially stronger Arctic trough moves
in over the weekend, which will bring yet another round of strong
winds to Southcentral as this pattern persists seemingly
evermore. This one is even more uncertain, so the forecast is
expected to change as we get closer to the end of the week.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS Days 1
through 3...

Key Messages:

- A High Wind Warning expires at 6:00am today.

- Precipitation chances increase Thursday for the Kuskokwim Delta
  with 0.5 to 1.5 inches of snow expected. Up to 3 inches of snow
  near and along the northern slopes of the Kuskokwim Mountains.

- Slight, relatively warmer trend begins Thursday through the end
  of the week.

Discussion:

High pressure over the Central Aleutians will continue to drift
into the North Pacific Ocean this week. A trough drops down from
the Bering Strait into the Mainland tomorrow bringing light snow
to the Kuskokwim Delta.

Wind gusts continued to decrease overnight through 5:00am today
in the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula as the fast-moving
shortwave dissipates. Multiple hours of wind gusts in the region
during the warning time period until 5:00am today were as high as
78 mph. These winds will continue to decrease from west to east
during the morning. Thus, the high wind warning will be allowed to
expire at 6:00am today.

As high pressure moves southward and it begins to flatten, a
shortwave moves around the ridge forming a trough that digs
southward into the Mainland. This brings the return to light snow
for the Kuskokwim Delta region by tomorrow morning. Snow then
spreads across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula by the
evening and continues through Friday.

Warmer temperatures from west to east begin tomorrow and continue
through the end of this week. Temperatures look to rise from the
single digits above zero over the Kuskokwim Valley to the teens in
Bristol Bay and twenties, all above zero for the high
temperatures by late Friday.

-Johnston

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The weekend begins with a highly amplified pattern. High pressure
centered south of the Aleutian Islands along with low pressure in
the eastern Gulf of Alaska will keep gusty gap winds persistent
across the Alaska Peninsula and through the western Gulf. Winds in
general are likely to be weaker than this past weekend and early
this week, with a messier pattern of weaker shortwave troughs
aloft. However, compared to yesterday, models are now keying in
on a shortwave trough diving south across Southcentral Alaska
Saturday into Sunday. This increases the likelihood of another
round of strong winds out of gaps in Southcentral Alaska/along the
north Gulf coast (including the Matanuska Valley wind and Valdez
area).

Temperatures remain below average across Southcentral
Alaska, with the coldest area being the Copper River Basin, where
ambient temperatures will hover in the range of 20 to 40 below
zero. Southwest Alaska, however, will see warmer, somewhat moist
air ride up and over the ridge, bringing increased potential for
precipitation. A series of low pressure systems track up the
coast of Far Eastern Russia toward Western Alaska through early
next week. This increases chances for precipitation in Southwest
Alaska Saturday night into Tuesday. Precipitation is likely to be
mostly snow, though rain is possible along the coast and is
increasingly likely southward along the Alaska Peninsula.
Southcentral Alaska looks to remain mostly dry and downsloped in
northwesterly flow, though chances for some light snow to make it
past the Alaska Range increase on Tuesday as low pressure
potentially tracks into the Gulf from Southwest Alaska.

Quesada

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Northerly winds
will taper off some Wednesday night.

&&


$$