Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

717
FXAK68 PAFC 021247
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 AM AKDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday evening)...

Little change to the forecast overnight. A ridge of high pressure
over the interior continues to keep the weather rather tranquil,
with little in the way of clouds, light winds, and cooler than
normal temperatures.

Looking into the forecast, a North Pacific low, currently well
south of the Alaska Peninsula, will continue to track to the east
today. Kodiak Island will be on the northern fringe of this
system, with an occluded front extending north of the low skirting
just south of the island today. With the low and its front staying
south of Kodiak Island, the bulk of the precipitation along the
front will remain offshore. However, there will likely be some
mixed rain and snow eventually moving over the island by later
this afternoon or evening. The front associated with this low will
stay far enough south that the rest of Southcentral will see no
precipitation.

The forecast challenges beyond today remain as various waves move
over the western Gulf in tandem with a more potent upper-level
trough digging south from the west coast of Alaska.

These additional shortwaves will interact with the larger system
and spawn a series of smaller more mesoscale low pressure systems.
One such meso-low may impact Kodiak Island and the southern Kenai
Peninsula late Friday into Saturday. The airmass associated with
the digging trough is also trending colder for Friday/Saturday
when compared to the airmass for Thursday`s system over Kodiak
Island. The Canadian models continue to be most aggressive with
QPF amounts; however the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF are all in agreement
with the general placement of the various surface and upper-level
features through Saturday. As such, updates to the forecast have
trended toward these models, with a nudge more to GFS QPF amounts
and less weight to the GEM. Even with the colder airmass in place,
any snow during the nighttime and early morning hours will likely
mix with or change to rain in the afternoon as temperatures warm
into the mid 30s. This will limit snowfall amounts across the
island, especially for coastal communities.

In addition to the Kodiak Island meso-low for Friday and
Saturday, there is yet another meso-low looking to lift through
the eastern Gulf Friday to along the north Gulf Coast by Saturday.
The GFS has the quickest progression with this system and pushes
it all the way into Prince William Sound by Saturday afternoon.
All other guidance, NAM, Canadian, and ECMWF are much slower with
this meso-low and do not push it into Prince William Sound while
keeping it along the north Gulf Coast as it weakens through
Saturday evening. The uncertainty in the track/progression of this
low will have implications on the precipitation forecast for
areas along the north Gulf Coast like Cordova as well as for the
Prince William Sound communities such as Whittier and Valdez.
Needless to say that it does appear the long string of sunny days
is about to come to an end this weekend...at least along the
coast. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates regarding meso-low
tracks for Kodiak Island and the north Gulf Coast.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...


The North Pacific low that brought warmer air and mixed
precipitation to the Aleutians and parts of the Alaska Peninsula
earlier this week continues its eastward movement into the Gulf
of Alaska today. Northerly gap winds in its wake through the
Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon as high
as 30 knots decrease to 15 knots this evening. Additionally,
isolated snow showers will continue through this afternoon then
dissipate this evening. Mainly dry conditions and calm winds are
expected through Saturday in these regions.

A weak trough moving south out of the Interior this evening brings
the chance (30%) of scattered snow showers for the Kuskokwim
Delta Region tonight through Saturday. Taking into account the
lack of moisture with this trough and the increased daylight this
time of year, the greatest chances for snowfall accumulation will
be in favored upslope locations such as the Kilbuck Mountains
overnight into Friday morning and again early Saturday morning.
Therefore, most places in the Kuskokwim Delta will see increased
cloud cover and an isolated snow shower.

A robust Kamchatka low and front move eastward over the Western
Aleutians Friday afternoon with its front reaching Adak as early
as Saturday morning. Signals continue to point toward this low
moving in a more southeasterly direction accounting for the
placement of the aforementioned Bering Sea trough and mid-level
support moving northeasterly through Saturday. Despite the lack of
100% model agreement on the Kamchatka low`s exact track,
forecaster experience leans toward favoring a more southeasterly
route. As the front pushes through the Central Aleutians, it will
stretch and weaken on Saturday leaving scattered rain showers for
the area. Wind gusts ranging from 20 knot to 40 knots are expected
to decrease through the day Saturday too.

-Johnston


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Weakening low pressure in the Gulf will keep increased cloud
cover for Southcentral and precipitation chances for the southern
coast at the start of the long term forecast period. High pressure
promoting clear skies over the eastern Bering Sea will nudge east
by Monday morning, allowing for a low pressure system to send a
front across the Aleutians and into the Alaska Peninsula on
Monday. A pattern shift towards wetter and cloudier looks likely
by mid-week as upper level shortwaves rotate in from the North
Pacific. Exact timing is uncertain, but models have trended
towards a solution where most of Alaska sees moderate
precipitation as troughing moves over the state Tuesday through
Thursday.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$