Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

113
FXAK68 PAFC 131333
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
533 AM AKDT Wed May 13 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

A somewhat drier, less windy, and possibly a bit sunnier pattern
will begin to emerge over the next day or so as a front draped
across the northern Gulf Coast begins to fall apart as it moves
ashore later today. Steady rain continues for now across much of
the Prince William Sound and parts of the eastern Kenai Peninsula,
but expect this to trend down in coverage and intensity
throughout the day today. Conditions remain mostly dry over inland
areas thanks to prevailing southeast flow causing downslope
drying in the lee of the coastal mountains.

Scattered rain showers will develop across parts of Southcentral
as a shortwave trough moving across the Gulf behind the decaying
front moves northwest into the Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet
region. However, some breaks in the stubborn cloud cover could
also develop late this afternoon and evening as a bit of drier air
works in behind the shortwave trough passage, especially near
Anchorage, the Mat Valley and western parts of the Copper Valley.
Flow will turn a bit more out of the east and weaken through
Thursday as a weak area of ridging tries to build in over the
northern half of Southcentral. Still, expect afternoon showers to
be common both this afternoon and on Thursday afternoon. Modest
gap winds will also pick up again along the Turnagain Arm, Knik
Valley, and Copper Valley both this afternoon and Thursday
afternoon.

Expect much of the same on Friday as weak winds aloft and weak
upper level features near the area continue to allow diurnal, local
scale effects (such as light sea breezes and gap winds) to
dominate. The outer reaches of the next system of interest will
begin to affect Kodiak Island late on Friday as a strong low
begins to move up the Alaska Peninsula. This system could bring
more unsettled conditions back into play later this weekend.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

A complex low over the Bering will undergo some consolidation
today as it shifts over the Alaska Peninsula. The low will
gradually weaken over the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday before much
of its remaining energy shifts into Southeast Alaska as an open
wave trough. A weaker wave of low pressure is moving into
Southwest Alaska from the southern Bering this morning, which will
result in scattered showers for much of the day today. Showers
begin to diminish tomorrow as the wave departs the region, though
continued light rain and snow will be possible at high elevation
across the mountains. Conditions improve by Friday across
Southwest Alaska as high pressure briefly becomes established.

The most notable feature over the west domain through the end of
the week into the weekend will be a large frontal system pushing
into the Aleutians from the North Pacific. The low has trended
slightly northward with more recent model runs, and now guidance
has not only the front moving along the Aleutian Chain but the
center of the low as well. After briefly weakening into the mid
980 mb range on Thursday, cold air advection wrapping into the
backside of the low will result in some re-amplification of the
low as it tracks from near Nikolski on Friday at 975 mb, back into
the mid 980 mb range on Saturday over or just north of the Alaska
Peninsula. Expect widespread showers across the Bering over the
weekend, including the Pribilof Islands (which could see snow).
Downstream of the low, persistent southeasterly flow associated
with the low`s front will bring renewed rain chances to Southwest
Alaska over the weekend as well.

-BL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Troughing over the eastern Bering looks to persist through early
next week and favor an unsettled pattern, especially for coastal
areas of southcentral Alaska. By Saturday morning, low pressure
will be situated over the eastern portions of the Aleutian Chain.
A front from this low enters the southwestern Gulf Saturday and
stalls in the northern Gulf Sunday. With a coastal ridge in place,
strong easterly to east-southeasterly winds are expected in the
Gulf as the front moves through. Peak winds look to be Saturday
afternoon through Sunday along the northern Gulf coast and
through the Barren Islands and Kamishak Gap. Additionally, chances
for precipitation this weekend are high along the northern Gulf
coast, Kodiak Island and eastern AKPen with upsloping winds. The
heaviest precipitation looks to be Saturday for Kodiak Island and
the eastern AKPen and Saturday night through Sunday for the
northern Gulf Coast. There are still some slight timing
differences with the progression of this front, details which will
be resolved in the coming days. Outside of the coast, most of
interior southcentral looks to be dry. Some light precip may spill
over the Kenai Mountains and Chugach Front Range on Sunday. The
main low looks to stall over the eastern Bering this weekend and
slowly occlude. This will maintain chances for precipitation
through the AKPen and Bristol Bay coast over the weekend into
early next week.

After Sunday night model agreement wanes. Ensembles maintain
troughing over the Bering with a potential ridge building over
western Canada starting Monday. Should this hold, general
southwest flow serves as a favorable track for additional lows to
move from the Aleutian Chain through southcentral Alaska. Only
some models currently hint at additional lows forming early next
week, hence high uncertainty. Nonetheless, the pattern early next
week will maintain favorable chances for precipitation for
southern Alaska, especially for coastal southcentral and areas
with upsloping winds.

-PA

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the period, with low
level downslope flow keeping conditions mostly dry over
Anchorage. A relatively light Turnagain Arm wind will redevelop
this afternoon, causing winds to turn southeasterly at 10 to 15
kts, occasionally gusting to 20 kts, into the early overnight
hours tomorrow.

-CW

&&


$$