Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

549
FXAK68 PAFC 120043
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 PM AKST Wed Feb 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday evening)...

Snow showers moving up Cook Inlet dropped another 1 to 3 inches
of snowfall across the Western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and
into the Susitna Valley today. Snow shower activity is expected to
diminish further through this afternoon and evening. However, an
additional weak shortwave, currently south of the Alaska
Peninsula, will lift over the Kenai Peninsula late tonight into
Thursday morning. This will give additional light snow
accumulations to the Kenai Peninsula from Nikiski down to Homer,
over to Seward and up to Portage/Whittier. Some hi-resolution
guidance wants to spill some light snow into Anchorage during the
morning. Kept with chance of snow due to the weak nature of the
upper-level forcing for ascent. Aside from Thursday morning`s
light snow, expect relatively quiet conditions across Southcentral
Alaska with increased winds through the favored gaps and passes
such as Thompson Pass, Resurrection Bay, and Passage Canal. The
next weather-maker arrives for Saturday as a Bering system pushes
inland of Southwest Alaska and over Southcentral Alaska. Snow is
looking likely across most locations with some rain/snow mix
potential near the coast. Stay tuned to the forecast for further
updates regarding Saturday`s system.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Despite a large 962mb low spinning away east of the Pribs this
afternoon, weather across the area continues to improve from the
previous days. Across Bristol Bay, warm southerly winds are
bringing in a mix of rain and snow snow near the coast. Deeper
into the YK Delta, light snow will continue to fall as the warm
moist air feeds into the colder region. This low will continue to
drift to the southeast overnight, eventually moving inland near
Dillingham Thursday morning. The back side of this will usher the
warmer temperatures out as colder arctic air races south. Along
the west coast, there may be times of blowing snow overnight and
into Thursday as freshly falling (and light) snow will be lofted
by the 20 to 30 mph winds. By Thursday afternoon and evening, weak
ridging will bring further calm to the mainland with pockets of
blue sky showing before sunset.

Moving into the weekend, the next weather maker will slide across
the Bering from west to east. This all stems from a low barreling
towards Kamchatka. Extending south and east from this low is a
rather expansive occluded front that will eventually develop a
triple point low near St. Paul. This will bring warm air, winds
and rain to all of the Aleutians. Shemya will likely see storm
force winds at the onset, though winds will weaken to gales by the
the time the front reaches Adak. Another developing low will ride
the coat tails of this front and while being added by the
strengthening occlusion, will bring stronger winds to the eastern
Aleutians and AKPEN by Saturday morning. The weekend will see the
return to unsettled weather as precipitation of many forms will
move back on land.


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through
Wednesday)...

Persistent upper level ridging looks to remain anchored in the
Pacific with shortwaves rounding the top of the ridge axis this
weekend into early next week. A low pressure system and its
accompanying front move through Southwest Alaska Saturday. The
main threat with this system at this time looks to be the
potential for moderate snowfall across interior Southwest Alaska,
rain mixing with snow along the coast, and rainfall across the
Alaska Peninsula. This system crosses the AKPen and moves into the
Gulf Saturday night and quickly continues toward Southeast Alaska
on Sunday. With slight weakening as it crosses the AKPen and a
deepening shortwave, there is an increased chance for snowfall
across Southcentral Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure
under a Bering ridge moves in behind the low which tightens the
pressure gradient in the southern AKPen and Barren Islands. This
will increase the chance for gusty northwesterly gap winds Sunday
into Monday.

The Bering ridge moves over Southcentral Monday before a second
progressive shortwave moves through the AKPen and breaks it down
Monday night. This brings increased chances for precipitation
Monday across Southwest and Tuesday across coastal Southcentral. A
surface low develops in the western Gulf Tuesday, resulting in
another tight pressure gradient which will increase the chance for
gusty northwesterly gap winds from the AKPen through the Barren
Islands. Models continue ridging over the Pacific through midweek
with weak waves traversing over the Aleutian Chain. However, there
is divergence on the timing of waves over the Aleutians and the
movement of an Arctic trough southwards from northern Alaska.
These details will become more clear in the coming days.

PA


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The latest in a series of upper level short-waves has
crossed Anchorage, which will lead to a break in snow showers
along with VFR ceilings through at least 09Z. If there is enough
of a break in lower cloud decks in the vicinity of the terminal
patchy fog could form, but unlikely to affect the airport.
Forecast confidence drops overnight in whether the airport will
see snow showers and reduced ceiling/vis. Periods of light snow
showers are most likely between 09Z and 18Z. Even if showers don`t
affect the terminal, there is higher confidence in a period of
MVFR ceilings. Then expect slowly improving conditions during the
day Thursday.

-SEB

&&


$$