Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

658
FXAK68 PAFC 181223
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
323 AM AKST Sun Jan 18 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper-level trough will continue to lift north across the
Susitna Valley and along the Alaska Range, phasing with a
shortwave moving east from the western Interior today. As it
does, a band of wintry precipitation will move from the western
Susitna Valley toward Broad Pass and along the Denali Highway
through this afternoon.

A secondary upper-level wave south of Kodiak Island this morning
will rotate around an upper-level ridge anchored over the eastern
Gulf of Alaska. This feature will bring another round of rain/snow
showers to the western Gulf northward along the south and east
Kenai Peninsula coast.

Weak flow and lingering low-level moisture between these features,
may yield the development of low stratus and fog across Cook Inlet
for Sunday evening through Monday morning. Isolated pockets of
freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out, given the pattern; however,
this solution is low confidence at this time.

By Monday, a potent upper-level wave and surface front moving
north over the southern AKPen will pull that area of precipitation
back to the west, with showers redeveloping across Kodiak Island
as yet another wave moves across the island and into Southwest
Alaska.

Elsewhere, a transient ridge will keep temperatures aloft warm,
resulting in inversions (warm air overtop a cooler airmass) for
valley locations. Depending on the strength of any inversions,
low stratus and/or areas of fog could linger through Monday night
or Tuesday morning for areas around Cook Inlet and across interior
Southcentral.

-TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

KEY MESSAGES:

 1) Freezing drizzle remains possible early this morning across
portions of Bristol Bay before ending mid to late morning. Another
freezing drizzle to light freezing rain threat possible Monday
night into Tuesday morning along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and
Coastal/Inland Bristol Bay.

 2) Southerly flow continues through Tuesday across most of
mainland Southwest Alaska and in most of Aleutians with light
precipitation likely along the southwest coast Monday night into
Tuesday.

 3) Two North Pacific lows, one today and one Monday evening into
Tuesday, bring precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, and
gale-force winds to the Aleutians.


Discussion:


A weak upper-level shortwave lingers along the Southwestern Coast
early this morning. Light precipitation, mostly in the form of
freezing drizzle, is seen on King Salmon Radar moving across
portions of coastal and interior Bristol Bay this morning. This
activity will diminish further as the morning goes on. Besides the
freezing drizzle across Bristol Bay, expect a mostly quiet
weather day across the southwestern mainland; albeit overcast due
to southerly and southeasterly flow aloft helping to keep some
clouds overhead.

A weak system lifts across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) late
Monday night into Tuesday with some light precipitation likely
along the coast. With borderline temperatures near freezing at the
surface and warmer air aloft along the coast, especially the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast, there is the opportunity for light freezing
rain and or freezing drizzle to fall. The same could be said for
portions of coastal and interior Bristol Bay; very similar to last
night and this morning. Upper-level ridging then seeks to build
in across Southwest Alaska Tuesday afternoon through the rest of
the short-term period keeping most of the area dry.

Farther out west, southerly flow continues to dominate the
southern AKPEN as cloudy skies are maintained with some embedded
rain showers or rain/snow mix from time-to-time this morning. This
activity will continue, off and on, through Tuesday. Elsewhere,
two North Pacific lows will lift across the Aleutians and into the
Bering Sea. The first one will lift into the Bering today. Early
this morning, Adak and Atka will likely start off as a period of
snow. The snow will likely blow around as winds will be out of the
east at 30 to 40 mph. After a couple hours of snow and blowing
snow, precipitation will quickly change over to rain as warm air
works in from the south. Rain will be light to moderate at times
across Adak and Atka before it tapers off this afternoon into the
evening. Shemya will remain on the west to northwest side/cold
side of the low this afternoon and evening with snow and gusty
winds likely. Visibility could drop to as low as one mile or less
across the Western Aleutians this afternoon through the evening
before winds diminish. Across the marine zones of the Aleutian
Chain, expect gale-force winds with this system with persistent
southeasterlies stretching from Adak to Akutan.

The second North Pacific low lifts to Adak and Atka Monday
evening with more gusty easterly to southeasterly winds and rain.
Unlike the system today, this system looks to be solidly rain at
the onset. As this system moves north into the Bering through
Tuesday, expect cold air to wrap around it and work into the
Central and Western Aleutians through Tuesday evening and
Wednesday morning. Another front approaches the Western Aleutians
by Wednesday morning with more gale-force southeasterlies across
the Western Aleutian marine zones.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Confidence is higher than usual for high pressure to build across
the state for the majority of the long range. The resulting omega
block pattern is expected to bring seasonable and relatively
quieter weather to much of the Mainland. There remains fairly good
model agreement on persistent upper level troughing over
Kamchatka and the far Western Bering Sea. Several shortwaves and
accompanying surface lows will lift from the North Pacific and
into the western Bering through mid to late next week, keeping
unsettled and active weather mainly confined to the Western and
Central Aleutians. Each wave will move in succession through the
Aleutians and Bering Sea, bringing multiple rounds of potentially
gale to storm force winds and precipitation for most of next week.
However, the main foreseeable challenge would be with the timing
of each low that lifts north across the area.

JH/Rux

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light northerly winds around 10 kts or less will persist.
Conditions will be favorable for low stratus or fog development
beginning this evening as high pressure builds over the region.

&&

$$