Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

192
FXAK68 PAFC 181337
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
537 AM AKDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weakened low is near the Southeast Panhandle this morning with
high pressure building across Southcentral. An easterly wave is
pushing offshore and rain showers continue to move from northeast
near the Wrangell Mountains to southwest into northern Gulf. Rain
ended last night for Cordova, but mistiness and fog will continue
through the rest of this morning.

This easterly wave will continuing moving southwestward for the
rest of today. Energy along this path could spread west for this
afternoon and although there is a little less moisture expected,
isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon. Model
guidance shows that the highest CAPE values/most convective
activity will form near the Talkeetna mountains and the Susitna
Valley.

The upper level wave starts to pivot around the high in
Southcentral and lifts northward as the upper level energy
interacts with a polar trough dipping into Southwest Alaska.
With models showing daytime high temperatures warming well into
the mid to upper 70s Friday afternoon, this timeframe looks
especially conducive for widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin - with
higher confidence for the Susitna Valley seeing the bulk of
activity with less coverage for the Copper River Basin. There is
also medium confidence in convection (including isolated
thunderstorms) forming across the Kenai Peninsula by Friday
afternoon. The global models show that upper level southerly flow
and very warm temperatures continue into Saturday, where the
chances of thunderstorms will stay with us, though more inland and near
terrain.

Rux/AM



&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Over the Southwest mainland chances for daytime showers and
isolated thunderstorms (20 to 30% chance) will continue into the
weekend with the Lower Kuskokwim Valley seeing the most activity.
An upper low will descend from the north over the lower Kuskokwim
region today, allowing for cooler temperatures and non- convective
rainfall over the Kuskokwim Delta.The low continues into the
eastern Bering and crosses the Alaska peninsula by Sunday morning.
Widespread fog and low stratus will follow the familiar pattern
of building during the evening and decaying during the morning.

Ridging continues over the central Bering Sea, while the front of
a North Pacific low southwest of Attu Island has stalled west of
Kiska and will slowly weaken in-place through Friday. The ridge
will eventually be squeezed by the low out west and the low
dropping across the Southwest Mainland. This means that fog/low
stratus coverage will shrink to middle of the Bering between the
Adak/Atka and Pribilof Islands area by Friday into the weekend.
Moisture from a low will push into Southwest Alaska by Saturday,
allowing for increased rain chances over the Southwest Mainland
including the Alaska Peninsula. This will be non- convective, but
isolated thunderstorms over the Kuskokwim regions will be possible
(10 to 20% chance) before the moisture and cooler air makes its
way north.

-JAR/ER

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Sunday will see unsettled weather for Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska due to a low moving into the western Gulf south of Kodiak
Island. This low will push moisture into the Southwest Mainland
and coastal Southcentral Alaska including Kodiak Island.
Widespread rainfall over the aforementioned regions will result.
Easterly waves moving into Southcentral will allow for shower
activity over the Copper River Basin and the Mat-Su through
Wednesday. The Bering will be in-between lows and will be
relatively calm through Monday. The Gulf low will begin to
progress eastward on Monday, which will decrease rain chances for
the Alaska Peninsula and coastal Southcentral while the Aleutian
ridge erodes during that time frame. The Bering low will slowly
move eastward through Wednesday due to a blocking high over the
Bering Strait.

A front from the Bering low will track across the Aleutians,
bringing a period of rain and gusty winds before the front stalls
and weakens between the Pribilof Islands and Unalaska by
Wednesday. For Southcentral, the Gulf Low continues moving east
through Wednesday, but rainfall will linger over coastal
Southcentral and Kodiak Island. An upper level ridge will begin to
build over the interior Monday night. There is higher confidence
for continued scattered showers and thunderstorms for the Alaska
Peninsula and Southwest Alaska from the anticyclonic flow and
easterly waves.

-SS/JAR

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light westerly winds prevail.


&&


$$