Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

602
FXAK68 PAFC 191331
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
531 AM AKDT Tue May 19 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The overall weather pattern is expected to be much the same over
the next couple of days as several shortwaves continue to pass
over Southcentral. Gusty southerly gap winds will continue
through this evening. Rain showers will pass over Anchorage and
the western Kenai peninsula this morning, otherwise, expect drier
conditions this afternoon. Persistent rain will continue along the
north Gulf coast and southern portions of the Copper River Basin
through Wednesday morning. Additionally, rain showers are likely
in the Susitna Valley through early this afternoon before drying
out. Inland areas will remain drier this afternoon through
tonight before a new low tracking out of the North Pacific moves
toward Southcentral on Wednesday. Winds lighten ahead of this low,
bringing an end to downslope drying and leading to increasing
chances of widespread light rain inland. Southcentral will dry out
again Wednesday night, but a new Bering low will send a frontal
system toward Kodiak and the western Gulf Wednesday night into
Thursday, as the active weather pattern continues.

KM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows another wave of
low pressure is tracking through Southwest Alaska this morning
while our broader vertically stacked upper low remains centered
just west of the Pribilof Islands. The passage of the smaller wave
through Southwest is contributing mildly gusty southeasterly
winds from the Western Alaska Range into the Kuskokwim Valley.
Gusts are peaking at around 25 mph from Dillingham to Iliamna
while King Salmon is gusting in the 30 mph range. Much of the
stronger winds will diminish through midday to early afternoon as
the wave of low pressure exits the region to the north. At the
same time, however, the vertically stacked low over the Bering
will begin to lift northeastward as an open wave trough and clip
the YK Delta later this evening, resulting in increasing southerly
winds and increasing showers across the Kuskokwim Delta through
tonight.

The next storm system is forecast to take shape later this
evening as a Kamchatka low deepens down into the ~975 mb range
immediately south of Shemya. The low then tracks along the
Aleutian Chain through Wednesday, eventually threading the
Pribilof Islands and Dutch Harbor en route to the Kuskokwim Coast
early Friday morning. Gales will be possible ahead and south of
the low as it moves eastward, with cold air advection potentially
promoting storm force gusts between Atka and Nikolski midday
Wednesday. The low begins a weakening trend thereafter with small
craft winds and higher gusts becoming the primary hazard along and
through the Alaska Peninsula into Thursday.

The lone bright spot in the forecast may be across Southwest
Alaska on Wednesday, as conditions relax and skies clear in-
between the departing Bering Sea low and the arrival of the
deepening Kamchatka low. Until then, scattered showers will be the
norm through tonight with a very low threat of an isolated wet
thunderstorm or two near Lime Village this afternoon.

-BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

A broad upper level low anchored over the Bering Sea looks to
continue to remain in place through the long term. Several
shortwaves rotating around this low across the western Bering,
North Pacific, and into the Gulf will continue to support the
active pattern and unsettled conditions across much of southern
Alaska through this weekend.

Models are in good agreement to begin the long term period as the
late week low in the eastern Bering pushes inland into Southwest
Alaska, spreading rain chances across much of the region from the
Gulf into Interior Southwest and Southcentral heading into the
weekend. This system will be quickly followed by a series of two
subsequent low pressure systems lifting out of the North Pacific,
with the first being this weekend and the second early next week.
Models begin to slightly differ on the exact timing and northward
progression of each of these lows, but the ensemble mean consensus
generally has the lows tracking south and along the Aleutian
Chain and into the Gulf. Elevated winds accompanied by light to
moderate rainfall with each system can be expected along the
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula before pushing into the Gulf, with
the heaviest precipitation expected along the immediate Gulf
coast.

&&







.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and gusty southeasterly winds are expected
to continue. Light rain will begin this morning and ending by
early afternoon. The gusty conditions will prevail until the
evening.


&&


$$