Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

533
FXAK68 PAFC 160005
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
405 PM AKDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Ridging builds in over Southcentral, with a series of shortwaves
cycling around the periphery of the ridge over the next few days.
Overall, relatively benign conditions are expected. Partly cloudy
skies and light rain showers, especially along terrain and upslope
areas, will persist through midweek. The low currently sitting
south of the Alaska Peninsula will slowly make its way across the
Gulf of Alaska and weaken as it moves towards Yakutat. An
associated front is bringing persistent light rainfall to eastern
Kodiak Island today and tomorrow morning, with conditions drying
out as the low exits to the east.

As the low moves east, and ridging builds in from Canada, rounds
of easterly waves will trek across Southcentral, bringing warmer
air and producing a more unstable atmosphere. The dominant flow
will be northerly, offshore, allowing for more seasonal and
diurnally driven sea breezes for coastal locations.

KM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday afternoon)...

High pressure remains over the Bering causing widespread low
stratus/fog to persist. There is, however, a break in the low
stratus/fog over the Pribilof Islands due to a wave from a trough
passing through. This is not expected to last very long and skies
will fill in by tonight. Over the Southwest Mainland lies an upper
low, which is allowing for scattered rainfall. This low moves
into the Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday, allowing for the Southwest
Mainland to dry and warm up. By Tuesday afternoon, showers (50 to
60% chance) and isolated thunderstorms (around a 10% chance) will
form over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley as daytime heating allows for
convection. There could also be showers over the Kuskokwim
Mountains. Other inland areas will be drier with cumulus clouds
and the occasional shower. Wednesday will be very similar to
Tuesday with more chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and lower chances for rain
elsewhere. The Bering will continue to have high pressure and
thus, low stratus/fog.

By Wednesday night into Thursday, a low will push southwest of
Attu Island. This will push a front into the Shemya area, allowing
for small craft winds and light rainfall. The rest of the Bering
will still be under the influence of the ridge and will likely (80
to 90% chance) see fog/low stratus continue. Over the Southwest
Mainland, an upper low will drop in from the north, allowing for
temperatures to cool especially over the Kuskokwim Delta. The
Lower Kuskokwim Valley will remain warmer and retain chances for
showers and isolated thunderstorms.

-JAR

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Expect unsettled weather late this week into early next week,
though no major hazards are anticipated at this time. As an Arctic
upper low and a North Pacific low converge on Southern Alaska, the
main concerns will be (a) thunderstorm potential in the interior
and (b) steady rain along the Gulf coast, with some question of
how much moisture will make it inland.

Friday begins with a bit of a col over Southern Alaska due to one
low approaching Southwest Alaska and another departing into
Southeast Alaska; meanwhile, ridges extend over interior
Alaska/Canada and the Bering Sea. As the low moves into Southwest
Alaska through the weekend, increasing vorticity (combined with
diurnal heating under a surface ridge) will likely spur
afternoon/evening thunderstorms across the Southcentral interior.
Southwest Alaska may also see thunderstorms earlier in the period,
but the approaching North Pacific low may bring enough cloud
cover and rain to stabilize the atmosphere as early as Saturday
afternoon. This will depend on the track of the moisture stream,
which is a bit uncertain at this time. Deterministic models show
precipitation moving in over the weekend between a line extending
from Bethel to Sand Point, and another line extending from about
Glennallen to Valdez; which areas will see the most precipitation
remains uncertain at this time, but there`s enough consensus to
suggest overcast and perhaps even rainy conditions for much of the
Southern Mainland by the latter half of the weekend and into
early next week.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, the ridge will remain the
dominant weather influence. While fronts will nudge into the
Western Aleutians (Attu to Amchitka) early on Friday and on then
again on Monday, models suggest the ridge will remain strong
enough to keep these fronts from progressing much into the Bering
Sea. As such, much of the Bering Sea will likely see overcast
skies and areas of fog due to subsidence under the ridge.

-KC

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Variable winds become light and southerly from 08Z Tuesday
through 18Z Tuesday. A more westerly wind will persist through Tuesday
evening with speeds near 10 knots.

&&

$$