Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

393
FXAK68 PAFC 171250
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

High pressure builds over Southern Mainland, while a weakening
low is tracking east across the Gulf towards the Southeast
Panhandle. Cordova reported light rainfall this morning and
showers will more than likely continue through most of the day and
into tomorrow (Thursday) morning. Light rain showers will also
develop for the Copper River Basin this afternoon, with the
highest chances near terrain. Additionally, there will be periods
of isolated, diurnally driven thunderstorms over the next few
afternoons as we continue a warming trend and easterly waves
progress through Southcentral for the rest of this week. The wave
moving through the Copper River Basin and the northern Gulf today,
then will pass through the Susitna Valley and western Kenai for
Thursday afternoon where the potential for isolated thunderstorms
will be greater (relative to the Copper River Basin). For coastal
locations, expect diurnally driven sea breezes each afternoon
through this week.

Rux/KM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday morning)...

Fog/low stratus remains over the Bering as ridging continues. The
growth and decay of fog and low stratus over the Aleutians will
follow the familiar pattern of decaying during the day and
building during the evening. Meanwhile, an upper-level low south
of the Alaska Peninsula will continue eastward, this opens the
door for reduced cloud cover and higher temperatures, mainly
across greater Bristol Bay between Togiak, Dillingham, and King
Salmon. This daytime heating will allow for convection over inland
areas of Southwest Alaska. A 10 to 20 percent chance of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley
through the weekend, with thunderstorm coverage increasing each
day towards the end of the week. An upper low will move over the
area from the north by Thursday, allowing for cooler temperatures
and non- convective rainfall over the Kuskokwim Delta.

Back to the Bering, by late Wednesday into Thursday, a low will
set up southwest of Attu Island. This low will push a front into
the Attu/Shemya region, bringing gusty, easterly winds and light
rainfall. However, the front will stall against the ridge and will
slowly weaken through Friday. The ridge will eventually be
squeezed by the low out west and the low dropping into the
Southwest Mainland. This means that fog/low stratus coverage will
shrink to middle of the Bering between the Adak/Atka and Pribilof
Island area by Friday.

-JAR/ER

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Expect unsettled weather late this week into early next week,
though no major impacts are anticipated at this time. The primary
concerns during this period will be (a) thunderstorm potential
across the interior and (b) relatively warm conditions in
Southcentral from late this week into early next week.

Saturday begins with a low in the far western Aleutians, a low
moving into Southwest Alaska from the north, and a low approaching
Kodiak/Alaska Peninsula from the North Pacific. A north-south
oriented ridge extends across the Bering Sea, and another ridge
will extend over eastern Alaska and into Canada. Putting the
pieces together: while ridging will have dominated much of the
Southern Mainland and the Bering Sea late this week, the
encroaching lows from the Arctic and the North Pacific will bring
a transition towards cooler, moister, and more unsettled weather
this weekend. The degree to which this happens will depend on how
the two lows phase and interact with each other, and how strong
the ridge over the interior remains.

Since yesterday, this interior ridge seems to have trended
stronger in model guidance, suggesting that the North Pacific low
and its moisture may be shunted off into Southwest Alaska or
remain in the Gulf altogether, leading to fairly dry conditions in
the Southcentral interior. If this were to happen, this may
extend the potential for thunderstorms into early next week, and
keep temperatures warmer for Southcentral. For Southwest Alaska,
precipitation amounts will depend on how the two lows phase and
evolve. If the North Pacific low is absorbed into the Southwest
low, this will mean greater moisture advection and more rain in
Southwest Alaska. If the two lows remain separate, moisture is
more likely to remain in the Gulf and lead to drier conditions in
Southwest. Either way, it looks likely that Kodiak Island, the
Alaska Peninsula, Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William
Sound will see rain this weekend from the North Pacific low.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, the trend is for the
Western Aleutians low and its front to gradually nudge the Bering
ridge eastwards, leading to more rain and wind moving into the
Bering Sea. The displacement of the ridge will also shift where
fog and low clouds are likeliest into the Central and Eastern
Bering/Aleutians by early next week.

-KC

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds persist.


&&

$$