Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

468
FXAK68 PAFC 040201
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 PM AKST Tue Feb 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)...

The dominant features in satellite imagery this afternoon is a
closed surface low circulation centered over the Western Gulf just
south of the Kenai Peninsula as well as a large low circulation
in the North Pacific about 500 miles south of the Alaska
Peninsula. A strong southerly jet stream is aimed toward the
eastern Gulf and Southeast Alaska as well. The strong short-wave
trough, associated with this closed surface low, is poised to move
inland of the Kenai Peninsula and the rest of Southcentral Alaska
this afternoon and evening with an area of upper level diffluence
just ahead of it. Widespread small-craft winds with pockets of
gale- force winds are being observed across much of the Gulf
coastal waters, with winds along the northern Gulf Coast seeing
the most gale-force winds. These winds will begin to diminish this
evening as the front and shortwave move inland. Gap winds and
rideg-top winds are also strengthening across Southcentral. Steady
rain is noted on Middleton Island radar spreading over the Gulf
coast and Kodiak Island. As a matter of fact, Kodiak has seen
moderate to heavy rain for most of the day. In the past 12 hours,
as of 3PM AKST, Kodiak Airport has recorded 2.24 inches of rain.
Conditions are dry for the moment inland. Temperatures are near or
above freezing across most of the region. The one notable
exception is the Copper River Valley where single digits to teens
temperatures prevail.

The aforementioned upper level short-wave will continue to move
inland the rest of today and tonight as it elongates and shears
apart. With a strong frontal system moving onshore/inland and high
environmental moisture, there will be moderate precipitation for
the coastal zone, with anywhere from and additional half an inch
to one inch of rain on top of what has already fallen today (and
locally higher amounts of snow-liquid in the mountains). Dry low
level air inland combined with downslope flow will initially keep
most of the western Kenai, Anchorage, and Mat-Su dry. Light
precipitation will spread inland the rest of this afternoon and
evening with the remnant short-wave and rapid weakening of the
surface front as it pushes further onshore (weakening the
downslope flow and shifting low level winds from easterly to more
southerly). With a complex set of weakening features headed
inland, it is quite challenging to identify the best window of
time for precipitation, but it will be light and brief for most
areas. Temperatures will warm above freezing for lower elevations
except for portions of the Copper River Basin, with precipitation
falling primarily as rain. There is potential for some light
freezing rain where temperatures do remain at or below freezing,
which is most likely in the Willow area as well as the southern
Copper River Basin. A Special Weather Statement has been issued
for Willow to bring further awareness to the very light freezing
rain threat for the rest of this afternoon into the overnight
before precipitation moves out of the area early Wednesday
morning.

The upper level short-waves will exit to interior Alaska late
tonight into Wednesday, bringing an end to precipitation for all
except a few upslope areas. There will be a brief push of
southeasterly winds this evening into the overnight hours,
including Turnagain Arm into Anchorage. This will warm
temperatures to near 40 degrees. However, as winds die down
overnight into Wednesday morning temperatures will drop back to
near freezing.

Attention will then shift to a new low tracking out of the east
Pacific. Model guidance continues to show a large spread in
solutions and run-to-run continuity is not good. The latest runs
have now trended toward a less concentric low and more of an open
surface trough entering the southcentral Gulf Wednesday and
weakening as it curves westward Wednesday night. Only the Canadian
model continues to insist on a stronger and tighter/concentric
surface low tracking from the southeastern Gulf to along the
northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday night. Went with a trend
towards a somewhat weaker and less concentric surface low. Most
precipitation will occur along the coast with little chance at
precipitation inland. The only exception is that precipitation
could spill over the Chugach Range and into the southeastern
Copper River Basin at times Wednesday and Thursday. Areas such as
McCarthy and Chitina could see some light snow at times Wednesday
into Thursday. Thompson Pass will also see snow Wednesday and
Thursday. However, blowing snow does not look to be a threat at
this time.

While most precipitation tapers off Friday, easterly to
southeasterly upslope flow continues into Western Prince William
Sound and along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula where low-elevation
rain showers and high-elevation/mountain snow showers continue.
The atmosphere continues to be chaotic with a profusion of upper-
level shortwaves in the North Pacific Friday evening into the
weekend with details unclear on how they will affect Southcentral.
Continue to stay tuned to the forecast for updates.

-SEB/DAN

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3:)...

Southerly to southeasterly flow continues to warm the region to
above freezing into this evening transitioning freezing rain to
rain. Overnight, cooler air and a second wave of moisture brings
the returned likelihood of a wintry mix for the Kuskokwim Delta
coast and inland Bristol Bay. Coastal communities from Kipnuk to
Toksook Bay and Mekoryuk may experience light freezing rain mixing
in, although this frozen precipitation should remain light and
short lived before changing to all rain. A Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect through Wednesday morning for the
Bristol Bay coast and inland Bristol Bay areas to highlight this
threat of freezing rain overnight. The greatest accretion of ice
is expected from Dillingham north to Koliganek, including New
Stuyahok.

The front of a North Pacific low rotates westward across the
southern Alaska Peninsula tomorrow causing a transition from snow
to a rain/snow mix to locations such as Cold Bay and Nelson
Lagoon. This feature will help to enhance snow showers across Adak
and Atka through Thursday as the surface low lifts into the
Bering by then. By Thursday evening, an occluded low near the
Kamchatka Peninsula sends its front to the vicinity of the Western
Aleutians by then. Cold air looks to remain in place across
Shemya for snow showers to be maintained.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Saturday through
Tuesday)...

This weekend, a broad, complex low pressure system will be
centered several hundred miles south of Kodiak Island, while a
deeper more consolidated low will be situated between Kamchatka
and the western Aleutians. Between these lows, a fairly sharp
ridge extends north across the Aleutians into the central Bering
Sea. Deep longwave troughing over the far western Bering Sea will
promote a much stormier pattern through the weekend into early
next week. The complex low south of Kodiak Island lifts into the
Gulf through the weekend, bringing wet, rainy weather along the
coast from the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula up to the
north Gulf coast. As the low elongates and slides toward Southeast
Alaska on Sunday and Monday, moisture and upper level troughing
will nudge in over Southcentral, which may allow precipitation to
spread into the region. The best chances for this will be over the
Copper River Basin, where some snow showers will be possible.
Further west, there are lower chances for precipitation, but
warmer temperatures in the low-levels suggest that there is a
greater chance that this precipitation would fall as rain or
freezing rain.

A more significant feature tracks up from the North Pacific into
the vicinity of the eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula on Sunday.
There is an increasing chance that the compact, moderately-deep
low brings wind gusts as high as 75 mph to a small portion of the
Aleutian Chain or Alaska Peninsula, most likely between Adak and
Nelson Lagoon, as it lifts into the Bering Sea with an associated
sting jet on its southern side. As the low quickly occludes and
loses its tap of warm air as it moves north, precipitation quickly
shifts from rain along the Aleutians to snow for Southwest Alaska
and the Pribilof Islands on Monday. This would be easily blown
around by the low as it spins down, leading to the potential for
a period of significantly reduced visibility. There is increasing
confidence that the low tracks into the Bering Sea and produces
the aforementioned impacts, compared to yesterday.

The active storm track continues into next week with another
deep low looking to track along the Aleutians or lift into the
Bering Sea on Monday and Tuesday. This has potential to produce
another round of moderate to heavy rain for the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula in addition to further potential for strong wind
gusts in excess of 75 mph. By Tuesday, the low`s front likely reaches
Southwest Alaska. With more moisture associated with this low,
this second system is likely to bring more precipitation than the
first. The low appears slightly warmer than the first, but most
locations in Southwest Alaska can expect mostly snow. Some
locations near the coast could experience rain, however. Weather
in the Gulf of Alaska settles down early next week as these deep
lows help to build a ridge over the Gulf. Though, light
precipitation is still expected for the coast and marine areas in
the form of upslope showers and weakening fronts move into the
area.

Quesada

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
period. Light, northerly winds with occasional wind gusts to
around 20 kts is expected until later tonight when winds briefly
turn southeasterly with a chance for showers (25 to 35 percent)
after 08Z tonight through Wednesday morning. A brief period of low
level windshear during the transition is possible, as early as
05Z. Skies begin to clear after 18Z Wednesday, along with winds
shifting back to northerly and decreasing through Wednesday
afternoon.

&&


$$