Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

145
FXAK68 PAFC 021316
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

The front over the Gulf of Alaska remains stationary this morning,
but is slowly weakening. This front continues to bring rain and
wind to Kodiak Island, though winds should be slowly diminishing
and the rainfall should be less today than the 1.87 inches that
fell over Kodiak airport yesterday (though that still was not a
daily record). The Flood Watch for Kodiak remains in effect
through Wednesday morning. The few river gages that are on Kodiak
Island show steady water levels below action stage from yesterday
evening through the early morning hours.

For the rest of Southcentral Alaska, this same front has brought
cloud cover and some showers overnight. The showers should mostly
be over and the clouds are expected to decrease through the course
of the day. Temperatures today should be notably warmer the next
three days with many areas in the 70s for both Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday morning)...

A North Pacific low, well south of the Southern Alaska Peninsula
(AKPEN) continues to spin and weaken today as it slowly drifts
east. Its front, however, will continue to bring the Pacific side
of the AKPEN unsettled weather in the form of showers through much
of today. Steady rain could linger through Chignik and Perryville
for much of the day. The heaviest rain, though, already fell last
evening into last night. Rain over Unalaska/Nikolski this morning
will taper off by this afternoon as the front weakens further
with all rain across the AKPEN tapering off through Wednesday
morning.

A northerly flow/off-shore pattern sets up along the southwestern
mainland Tuesday through Friday between a ridge in the Bering and
the eastward drifting North Pacific low mentioned above. This
will promote a hot and dry weather scenario across the Kuskokwim
Valley and along the Western Alaska Range. Expect highs in the
middle to upper 70s across the Kuskokwim Valley and along the
Western Alaska Range with the warmest readings occurring by Stoney
River. Minimum relative humidities look to range between 25 to 35
percent as well. The driest days being Tuesday and Wednesday. The
one fly in the ointment, from a fire weather perspective, will be
how strong northerly winds can get. It is notoriously challenging
to get winds at or greater than 15 mph from the north across the
southwestern interior. With that, 5 to 10 mph winds are expected
at this time for Tuesday and Wednesday, but trends will have to be
monitored closely. Warm weather continues for Friday as the
Bering ridge begins to weaken and break down for the weekend.

Farther out west, with the ridge persisting, low-stratus also
persists across Shemya and Adak/Atka. As mentioned previously,
rain will continue through the morning across Nikolski/Unalaska in
association with the North Pacific front and taper off by late
morning to early afternoon. Low stratus and misty conditions will
also continue at times through the short-term across the Pribilof
Islands as well.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Looking ahead to the weekend and into early next week, a more
unsettled pattern is expected to re-emerge, with cooler
temperatures and increased chances for precipitation for most of
the state. By Friday, high pressure over the interior will begin
to break down as an upper-level Arctic low sends a series of
shortwave troughs into the mainland. These troughs will continue
dig further and further south, gradually increasing cloud cover
and bringing temperatures closer to seasonal norms.

Simultaneously, another North Pacific low is expected to develop
to the south of the Central Aleutians by Saturday and continue
through the Gulf on Sunday and into Monday. However, there
remains quite a bit of model spread regarding the track/intensity
of this system. The GFS has the low strengthening significantly
and remaining close to the coast, which would bring more
widespread impacts the the AKPen and Southcentral. However, this
solution seems to be an outlier, with most other models keeping
the low weaker and farther south. Regardless, the warm, dry
weather in the short-term appears to be transient, so enjoy it
while it lasts!

-CW

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the period. Light and
variable winds will turn northerly this morning with a
southwesterly sea-breeze developing this afternoon in conjunction
with daytime heating. Winds go back to light and variable
overnight tonight with the loss of daytime heating.

&&

$$