Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXAK68 PAFC 130042
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 PM AKDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Wet snowfall across Southcentral will taper off across most
valleys this evening, persisting slightly later for higher
elevation areas. Snow accumulation on roadways is limited given
the amount of daytime heating we are getting now. The influence of
this system will deteriorate for most areas on Monday, though the
southern Copper Valley and the Mentasta/Nabesna area may continue
to get light snow through late Monday night. For Tuesday, expect
a return to sunny conditions with slightly below normal
temperatures. With clearer skies expected, this will allow for
overnight low temperatures to return below freezing. This may
cause slippery conditions on roadways or walking paths that have
melted the past few days.

Winds are calm across most of Southcentral, with the exception of
Kodiak and favored coastal gap areas such as Seward and Whittier.
The strongest winds will be over Kodiak this evening, expected to
persist through Monday into Tuesday morning before coming down
slowly.

-CL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday morning)...

A negatively tilted upper level trough is currently pulling
remaining moisture over Southwest Alaska, allowing for lingering
showers over the Bristol Bay region. A transient ridge moving in
from the eastern Bering Sea will push the trough east and keep
calm conditions in the area through Tuesday morning. Farther west,
a warm front associated with a Kamchatka low will move into
west/central Bering Sea this evening. Gale Force sustained winds
are likely to move past the Rat Islands as the frontal system
approaches this afternoon into tonight, but winds will weaken to
below Gales as the front continues along the remainder of the
Aleutians through early Tuesday.

As the front arrives in the Pribilof Islands on Monday,
temperatures will initially be cold enough for precipitation
moving in ahead of the boundary to fall as snow. A quick 1-3" of
accumulation is expected prior to a transition to mainly rain late
Monday evening as strong warm air advection pushes low level
temperatures above freezing. Blowing snow and reduced visibility
will be possible for a few hours as snow moves in, but this window
will be very short-lived given quickly warming temperatures
through Monday evening.

The front will weaken as it moves into Southwest, bringing
another round of light snow to much of the region as it begins to
move inland Tuesday night. The front`s associated low elongates
and blankets the southern Bering Sea with upper level shortwaves
rotating through the primarily zonal flow. These reinforcing waves
of upper level support will allow showers to persist over most of
the outlook area through Wednesday. A belt of elevated southeasterly
winds will move over the Aleutian Chain on Wednesday as a result
of low position and shortwave troughing.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Days 4 through 7 look to be somewhat on the active side for mid-
April with multiple systems bringing precipitation and cloud cover
to the region. Broad upper-level troughing stretching from the
Bering Sea to mainland Alaska will be in place to begin the period,
placing the Aleutians and much of Southern Alaska in active quasi-
southwest flow with embedded shortwaves. Kicking off the period on
Thursday, precipitation will overspread much of Southcentral AK amid
southwest flow.

Models begin to really diverge by/after Friday, but ECMWF/CMC
solutions are in general agreement with a strong low moving into the
Bering from the North Pacific, bringing storm-force winds, waves,
and general unsettled weather to the Aleutian Chain by the end of
the week and into the weekend.

While uncertainty in details is high, an upper-level low in place
across mainland Alaska will continue to bring unsettled weather to
Southcentral AK over the weekend into the start of next week.
Temperatures will generally be near average.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Isolated to scattered snow showers will linger into tonight
with possible reductions in visibility if a shower moves through
the terminal. Otherwise, expect ceilings to gradually rise
overnight and showers to taper off. Models are hinting at some
low ceilings and fog for Monday morning, but expect this to be
tied more to north-northwesterly flow allowing for upslope along
the Chugach mountains with any low clouds and fog near the
terminal mixing out pretty quickly after sunrise.

&&

$$