Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

302
FXAK68 PAFC 310121
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 PM AKST Fri Jan 30 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Light precipitation showers continue across Southcentral, with
areas more interior with even more sparse precipitation. Chance
for showers across much of the region will continue through
Sunday. This is due to the closed upper low associated with this
system elongating to the south, take on a negative tilt and slowly
lift through Southcentral over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, a
few shortwaves will move southeast to northwest from the central
Gulf, over the Kenai Peninsula and into the southwest Susitna
Valley. Each of these shortwaves has the potential to bring more
wintery mix (mostly rain and/or freezing rain) from the northern
Kenai Peninsula north to Anchorage over the next 48 hours. Total
liquid amounts from each of these waves is anywhere from a trace
to two tenths of an inch. Overall forecast confidence for the
timing and placement of these features is low, but given the upper
level support and some instability aloft, there are likely to be
some showers in the Cook Inlet region through Saturday afternoon.
There have been reports of ponding on roadways in areas where
rainfall is taking place. Returns of freezing temperatures
overnight, freezing this liquid may make for more hazardous
driving conditions.

Meanwhile, the eastern Kenai, and at times the greater Prince
William Sound area will continue to get lower elevation rain and
mountain snow with snow levels between 1400 and 1800 ft. With
limited cold air in the lower elevations anywhere, precipitation
for most areas is likely to be rain until we can dry things out
enough for the wet-bulb profile to go back below freezing. By
late Saturday and into Sunday we`ll get some weak ridging, leading
to a drop in temperatures and clearer skies (barring fog
formation) for many areas. Generally speaking though, moving into
next week the pattern appears to be more of the same. Light rain
along the coast with chances of rain and freezing rain inland.

-CJ/CL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Monday evening)...

Periods of light snow will continue across Southwest Alaska
through Saturday as a weakening low from the Gulf moves into the
area. Less than two tenths of an inch of liquid water equivalent
is expected through Sunday afternoon. The Ahklun and Kilbuck
Mountains north and west of Dillingham will receive the highest
snow totals (between 2 to 5 inches) with less than one inch of
snow expected across the rest of the Southwest mainland and the
Bristol Bay side of the Alaska Peninsula. Some light snow is
expected to make it over the Kilbuck and Kuskokwim Mountains and
into western Portions of the Kuskokwim Valley such as Kalskag and
Aniak tonight through Saturday with light accumulations between 1
to 2 inches expected. Expect drier weather across Southwest Alaska
for Sunday and Monday, albeit with continued cloud cover as weak
upper-level shortwaves continue to traverse the area.

Farther west, remnants of an upper-level low will continue to
weaken as it moves from the just off the Kamchatka Peninsula into
eastern Russia tonight. A few shortwaves will lift across the
Western Aleutians tonight through Saturday morning which will help
to keep off and on snow showers going across that area. A ridge
will move from east to west across the Eastern Aleutians and
Central the rest of today into Saturday which will provide quieter
but cloudy weather at times. Across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN),
snow showers will be likely at times through early Saturday
morning as northerly flow off the Bering continues. Flow switches
to a southeasterly component Sunday along the southern AKPEN as
temperatures begin to warm. A rain/snow mix is possible by Sunday
afternoon as a disturbance moves in from the southeast.

A stronger gale-force North Pacific low lifts its front to near
Adak and Atka by Sunday, bringing more snow showers to the Central
Aleutians by then. Snow is expected to continue across the
Central Aleutians into Monday. Additionally, a trough looks to dig
southward from the Kamchatka Peninsula through the western Bering
and across the Western Aleutians through Monday evening. This
will bring a renewed push of cold air from the north across Shemya
along with scattered snow showers at times through Monday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)...

The large scale pattern in place right now will persist for at
least the next week. While model spread is large with the handling
of individual storms, there is overall high confidence in the
type of weather expected in this pattern. Generally expect warmer
than normal temperatures and mixed precipitation-types across
southern Alaska as storms track up from the Pacific into the Gulf
and Southcentral. The Gulf coast will see the greatest impacts
from each storm, with periods of moderate precipitation (low
elevation rain and mountain snow) and strong winds. As has been
the case in recent days, light precipitation may occasionally
spread inland in the form of rain or freezing rain. A persistent
ridge from Canada into the Alaska Interior will cause storms to
curve westward and quickly weaken as they move toward Southwest AK
and the eastern Bering Sea. Thus, impacts from precipitation and
wind will be much less over Southwest AK. Quieter weather will
persist across the central to western Bering Sea and Aleutians
under prevailing northerly flow.

-SEB

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds expected through the TAF
period. There are some weak shortwaves that may produce light
rain (with the surface hovering near freezing), but would become
more likely around 6Z tonight through Saturday morning.
Temperatures with height may cool enough overnight to see more of
a wintry mix with ice pellets, freezing rain, and/or snow. Low
confidence continues at this time for timing of any showers that
reach the surface at the terminal.

&&


$$