Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

469
FXAK68 PAFC 121559
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
659 AM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Drier conditions today across Southcentral brings some cooler
temperatures. Periods of light rain/snow mix may linger along the
northern Gulf coast and Prince William Sound area today.
Widespread snow is expected to push into Southcentral on Tuesday,
primarily along the coast and north into the Copper River Basin.
A band of precipitation is also expected to set up along Cook
Inlet, bringing snow to the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage and
the Matanuska Vally, southern portions of the Susitna Valley, and
Kodiak Island Tuesday morning. Increased cloud cover and
precipitation will allow for increased temperatures again by
Tuesday, with southern portions of Southcentral in the teens,
northern portions in the upper single digits, and coastal areas in
the 20`s and 30`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Key Messages:

* A resurgence of cold air will bring bitterly cold temperatures
  and wind chills to Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula
  through about Thursday. Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme
  Cold Warnings are in effect.

* Gusty northerly winds and snow showers continue across the
  Aleutian and Pribilof Islands through midweek, leading to
  periods of minor visibility reductions in blowing snow.

* As early as late Wednesday night, an incoming warm and wet
  storm could bring the potential for freezing rain and rain to
  parts of the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska.

The biggest change to the overnight forecast package was to
upgrade the Winter Weather Advisory to an Extreme Cold Warning for
Kuskokwim Valley West (which includes the communities of Kalskag,
Aniak, Chuathbaluk, and Napaimiut) as wind chills have dropped as
low as -50 to -60. Additionally, changes have been made to snow
amounts and winds along the Aleutian Islands as models have come
into better agreement with two low pressure systems that move
across the Central Aleutians on Tuesday and Wednesday. Finally,
by late Wednesday night, attention shifts towards an atmospheric
river that will likely bring warmer temperatures and heavier
precipitation to Alaska Peninsula and parts of Southwest Alaska.
Aside from these changes, the previous forecast discussion still
stands and is copied below with minor edits.

The main concern with the short term forecast continues to be the
cold. A large Arctic trough is over Southwest Alaska, keeping
temperatures far below 0 in most locations. Out over the Bering,
the cold air flowing over the warmer water temperatures is
creating some kind of an ocean-effect snow effect, allowing for
snow showers across the Pribilof Islands and the Aleutians. These
showers are expected to taper off a bit from the west as high
pressure builds in.

This, however, will be short lived as another Arctic trough
pushes south into the Southwest Mainland and the Bering Tuesday
afternoon and creates more snow showers over the Pribilof and
Aleutian Islands. This second push of Arctic air will drive
ambient temperatures 20 to 30F below zero in the mainland and into
the single digits over the Pribilof Islands and the Alaska
Peninsula around Cold Bay. Wind chills are making temperatures
feel even colder with the lowest wind chills (-40s to -60s) being
seen in the mainland. Due to the bitterly cold wind chills, Cold
Weather Advisories are out for the Southwest Mainland including
the Alaska Peninsula, with an Extreme Cold Warning out for the
Port Heiden area due to a lower temperature criteria, and for
Kuskokwim Valley West where wind chills below -55 have been
observed.

Looking ahead to the end of the week has the potential for a
North Pacific low riding along an atmospheric river up into
Southwest Alaska. This would dramatically warm temperatures to
near or slightly above freezing across Southwest Alaska due to
warm air advection that would accompany the low. A large amount of
precipitation would also fall due to the large fetch of moisture
being brought up. There is much uncertainty with this scenario, so
stay tuned for updates.

-JAR/KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

All eyes are on the next big storm system to emerge from the
North Pacific over the latter half of the week. Deterministic
models have not been the most helpful, with the EC, GFS and
Canadian in little agreement with each other, and often each model
disagreeing with itself from run to run. An area of low pressure
moves up the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday morning, tracking into
the eastern Sound or just east over the Copper River Delta by
Wednesday afternoon. Behind the low an amplified pattern develops
over the western Gulf and AKPEN, with what will be a long fetch of
southerly flow and moisture (an atmospheric river) streaming into
Southcentral Wednesday night. Warming temperatures could spell
precipitation type issues for the region. A mix of rain, freezing
rain, and snow will all be possible Thursday night into Friday as
a second wave of low pressure rides up the atmospheric river and
pivots northwestward into Bristol Bay or possibly further west. A
secondary concern will be for potential high winds as the
deepening low tracks from the southeastern Bering northward across
Nunivak Island. Ensemble model guidance has been a little bit
more consistent with a deepening upper low over the Bering. The EC
ensemble is further east than the GEFS, but both solutions will
bear close monitoring over the coming days.

-BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...There continues to be some uncertainty as to when ceilings
will become predominantly VFR today. With this in mind, thinking
is that the majority of the morning hours today will continue to
feature high-end MVFR ceilings to low-end VFR ceilings with an
MVFR scattered deck. Drier air continues to work in aloft from the
southwest during today as surface winds remain light and out of
the north to northeast. Predominant VFR ceilings seem more likely
this afternoon as drier air moving in causes ceilings to lift
further.

A shortwave lifts northward across the Gulf and over the area by
Tuesday morning brining a return to light snowfall. MVFR ceilings
and visibilities associated with light snow are likely towards the
end of the TAF period as light north to northeast winds persist.

&&


$$