Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

718
FXAK68 PAFC 080117
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Thursday)...

Generally unsettled weather continues tonight through Wednesday
as another Bering Sea front and low pressure system quickly
follows behind the current system. Current radar imagery shows
dwindling precipitation mainly confined to eastern Prince William
Sound and along terrain in the western Susitna Valley as attention
shifts west to the next system. Precipitation associated with the
next front entering the western Gulf will reach Kodiak Island
late this afternoon into this evening and will overspread
Southcentral Alaska through Wednesday morning. Similar to the
previous front, the expectation is for the majority of
precipitation to be mainly confined to the coast as southerly flow
aloft shifts back to southeasterly tonight, with periods of light
precipitation possible for inland areas including the Mat Valley
and Anchorage. A rain/snow mix and plain rain is expected along
the coast at sea level with snow for higher elevations.

By late morning into Wednesday afternoon, chances for
precipitation across the MatSu and Anchorage increase as the
surface low in the eastern Bering and upper level trough shifts
east into the Gulf. This second round could bring more widespread
showers, though any snowfall is expected to quickly mix with or
fully transition to rain as daytime temperatures increase.
Precipitation along the coast will diminish through Thursday
morning with gradually improving conditions across the region
throughout the day as the low exits the area and ridging builds in
from the west. By Friday morning, expect drier conditions with an
increase in typical northerly gap winds.

-JH

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A large low pressure system is currently rotating in the eastern
Bering Sea, bringing showery precipitation to most of Southwest
Alaska. Southerly flow into the Bristol Bay region has allowed
snow to transition to rain today, but may transition back to snow
as temperatures cool during the overnight hours. As this low moves
over Mainland tomorrow, winds and precipitation will continue to
diminish.

High pressure over the western Aleutians will transit the Bering
Sea today through Wednesday night. A front extending off a
Kamchatka low immediately follows the ridge, bringing rounds of
precipitation and gale force winds to the Western/Central
Aleutians and Bering Sea. The front weakens as it reaches the
Pribilof Islands, with winds diminishing to small craft.
Precipitation will spread across the Eastern Aleutians as rain and
and into the Kuskokwim Delta as snow or a rain/snow mix by late
Thursday afternoon. Yet another broad low pressure system will
enter the western Bering Sea on Friday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The long term begins with an amplified upper-level weather
pattern consisting of a trough digging across the western half of
the Bering and a ridge downstream extending from the North
Pacific over much of mainland Alaska. A shortwave trough looks to
move overtop the ridge, sliding east across Southcentral Alaska
through the day Saturday. The progression and strength of this
wave varies between models; however, all show this feature,
coupled with its associated surface front, elongating and
weakening quickly as it moves east with little more than clouds
and a shift in the wind field.

Farther upstream, the digging trough will allow for development of
a strong Kamchatka Low with a surface front moving east across the
Bering and Aleutian Chain. This front looks to occlude by late
Saturday as it enters the eastern Bering. Models then diverge on
the evolution of a potential new surface low forming on the
triple point somewhere near the Alaska Peninsula. The GFS is the
most progressive with not only development of the low but its
track into the Gulf by late Sunday. The ECMWF has a similar
solution, but is slower in its eastward movement into the Gulf of
Alaska. The Canadian is more of an outlier, keeping a stronger
ridge in place and stalling the feature over the Alaska Peninsula
before weakening it. By late Monday, this feature, in whatever
form, moves toward the Alaska Panhandle with a repeat of a
transient upper-level ridge upstream moving over the state for
late Monday into Tuesday as another area of low pressure develops
near Kamchatka with its front moving across the Bering Sea for
Tuesday.

Bottom line, this pattern favors a slightly amplified, yet
progressive, weather pattern that looks to bring periods of
clouds and precipitation to much of Aleutians and Southern
Mainland through the next several days.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this
evening; however, isolated to scattered showers may linger along
the Chugach Mountains through tonight. The Turnagain Arm winds
will remain over the Terminal through late this evening before
tapering off. Increasing chances for showers and decreasing
ceilings Wednesday morning with the next system approaching from
the southwest. More widespread precipitation is possible by
Wednesday afternoon with the potential for dips in visibility.

&&


$$