Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

553
FXAK68 PAFC 240111
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
511 PM AKDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Sunday)...

Key Points:

* Continued unseasonably wet and windy weather through Friday
  night.

* The wettest weather will be the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Prince
  William Sound, and Susitna Valley. There has been a break in
  rain for many of these areas this afternoon, but the next round
  of heavier rain will arrive by this evening.

* Additional rainfall through Saturday morning: 2 to 5" along the
  Gulf and Prince William Sound coastlines (including Seward,
  Whittier, Valdez and Cordova) 0.50 to 1" over eastern interior
  Kenai Peninsula; 1 to 2" in the western Susitna Valley; and
  lighter amounts elsewhere.

* A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Susitna Valley from 9pm
  this evening through Saturday morning. Rain and snowmelt
  combined with still frozen surfaces could make it hard for all
  of the water to find a place to properly drain. As a result,
  there could be minor flooding of low-lying roads and properties.

* Strong and gusty southeasterly gap winds will persist through at
  least Friday afternoon. Locations that will see some of the
  strongest winds include Turnagain Arm, Anchorage Hillside, south
  to west Anchorage, Palmer and the Knik River Valley, and
  Glennallen and the Copper River.

A high amplitude pattern remains firmly entrenched over Alaska,
with a trough in the Bering Sea/North Pacific and a ridge
extending from the northeast Pacific to the Al-Can border. Deep
and moist southerly flow is noted in water vapor with a moisture
plume streaming northward from around 40N latitude up to the
western Gulf. A series of vigorous shortwaves can also be seen in
satellite imagery, with the strongest approaching Kodiak Island
and the western Gulf this afternoon. At the surface, a weak
frontal wave is tracking northward up a stationary front which
sits beneath the upper level moisture plume. As these features
continue northward, stronger winds and steady rain are spreading
across Kodiak and the western Gulf. Meanwhile, there is a brief
break in significant rainfall (and mountain snow) over
Southcentral, with just some localized light precipitation in
upslope areas along the south side of mountain ranges. Otherwise,
it is cloudy with gusty southeast winds (especially through the
typical coastal gaps) and temperatures in the 40s to around 50.

While the expected weather for the next couple days is generally
on track, there have been some shifts in model guidance with
depiction of individual short-waves which will affect the timing
of heaviest precipitation and strongest winds. The short-wave now
approaching the western Gulf now looks like the strongest of
short-waves with the best moisture transport aloft. It will
amplify just a bit as it continues northward across the western
half of Southcentral tonight. The heaviest precipitation will be
across the southeastern Kenai Peninsula and northern to western
Susitna Valley from approximately 9pm this evening through 6am
Friday. Southeasterly winds will ramp up once again (ahead of the
short-wave), with the strongest winds along Turnagain Arm and
affecting the Anchorage Hillside. Winds look a bit stronger than
last night, with a few gusts of 60 mph or higher likely for upper
Potter Marsh and the upper Hillside of Anchorage. With the ground
still largely frozen and trees yet to leaf out, do not expect any
significant impacts due to these winds.

Another short-wave will cross nearly the same area Friday afternoon
through Friday night. Model guidance has trended toward a weaker,
less amplified short-wave. As a result, winds and precipitation
rates with this short-wave look less impressive and the forecast
has been updated to reflect this.

The upper level flow will shift behind this short-wave on Saturday
as a new storm system moves into the Bering Sea, bringing an end
(temporarily) to the deep southerly flow and moisture transport.
One final short-wave will cross through Southcentral during the
day Saturday, but precipitation with it will be quite light. A
short-wave ridge will then briefly move through Saturday night
into Sunday morning, with the frontal system from the Bering storm
following closely behind. The upper level flow on Sunday will
look very similar to what is in place today. Thus, unseasonably
wet and windy weather will return late in the weekend and into
the new work week.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Sunday)...

Key messages:

- A low over the northern Bering Sea will steadily weaken through
  Friday night.

- An unseasonably strong low will rapidly deepen as it approaches
  the central portions of the Aleutians on Saturday.

- Very strong winds could impact much of the Aleutian Chain as the
  low crosses into the southern Bering Sea on Sunday. Widespread
  Gale to Storm Force winds could impact much of the marine
  outlook area this weekend.

Discussion:

A broad region of cyclonic flow now extends across much of the
Bering Sea and Aleutians, with several embedded shortwave troughs
rotating around the larger area of low pressure. Two of such
disturbances are moving north into Southwest within a belt of
southerly flow, ushering a few bands of light rain north across
the region. Much of Southwest is still seeing rather blustery
conditions as well, with gusty southeast winds persisting around
the eastern fringes of a weakening surface low moving over Saint
Matthew Island. Things have quieted down for now across most of
the Aleutian Chain, where light west winds are prevailing along
with occasional rain/snow showers drifting past.

From tonight through Friday night, little change in the general
pattern is expected as the low moving over the northern Bering Sea
steadily weakens and as multiple shortwave troughs continue to
move northeast along the AKPen and over Southwest. Multiple rounds
of mostly rain will continue to affect much of the AKPen, Bristol
Bay and Kuskokwim Delta as these upper waves move across.
Generally calm conditions will continue across the Pribilofs and
Aleutians, but this will change rather abruptly over the upcoming
weekend.

On Saturday morning, a North Pacific low will phase strongly with
a potent trough approaching from the west and rapidly deepen into
a 950-960 mb Hurricane Force low as it approaches Adak and Atka by
Saturday afternoon. Model agreement for this system continues to
improve, and it now looks likely that the low center will cross
over into the southern Bering Sea near or just west of Adak by
Saturday evening. A sting jet of intense winds will develop to the
south of the low center, and this corridor of strong winds will
progress north into the central/eastern parts of the Aleutian
Chain by early Sunday morning. Even though the low will reach peak
intensity prior to moving into the Bering Sea, this corridor of
winds will still be quite intense. Storm Force sustained winds
with Hurricane Force gusts will overspread much of the marine
waters surrounding the eastern half of the Aleutians, with
potential for wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph or stronger to impact
Adak, Atka, Nikolski and Unalaska as the low shifts north late
Saturday night into Sunday. Seas as high as 40 ft will move in
tandem with the corridor of strongest winds south of the
Aleutians between Adak and Nikolski Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

Farther north, the low`s leading front will push across the
Pribilofs on Saturday night, spreading precipitation initially in
the form of snow across the islands along with southeast winds
gusting to around 60 mph. Temperatures will likely be hovering at
or just above freezing by this point, so this will limit potential
for blowing snow. Snow will transition to rain as temperatures
continue to warm on Sunday morning, while gusty winds to the east
of the low center persist. The front will reach the Southwest
Coast Sunday morning, with a similar progression from wet snow to
rain expected through the day on Sunday as gusty southeast winds
also spread across Southwest along and ahead of the incoming
front. Stay tuned for more details as we continue to monitor this
unseasonably strong storm system through this weekend.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Unsettled weather is expected to persist across much of Alaska
into early next week as a North Pacific low moves into the
southern Bering. The low will then track northward, passing
northwest of the Pribilof islands by Monday while gradually
weakening and occluding. Storm force winds are possible across
portions of the central Aleutians Sunday into Monday, with
widespread gale-force winds otherwise expected across the
Aleutians, much of the Bering and Bristol Bay through Tuesday.
Coastal impacts remain limited at this time due to the presence of
shorefast ice and an extensive ice pack over the eastern Bering.

A frontal system associated with this low will move into the
Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska Sunday morning, reaching the
western Gulf and Kodiak Island by Sunday afternoon and then
progressing into Southcentral Alaska Sunday night. This system
will bring a steady stream of moisture into southern Alaska,
resulting in widespread precipitation as the front advances. The
heaviest precipitation is expected across Kodiak Island, along the
northern Gulf Coast, and across higher elevations of the Alaska
Range due to upslope enhancement from southeasterly flow. In
contrast, downsloping effects are likely to limit precipitation
across portions of the western Chugach and Kenai Mountains, as
well as along the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula.

As the primary low weakens and occludes over the northern Bering,
additional shortwave disturbances are expected to rotate around
the parent low and move northward into Alaska. Model guidance is
in general agreement on a shortwave moving into Southcentral
Alaska Monday night into Tuesday, which will support another
period of enhanced precipitation, particularly along the northern
Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island where southeasterly flow persists.

Beyond Tuesday, model solutions begin to diverge with respect to
the timing and placement of additional shortwaves. Some guidance
brings additional energy into Southwest Alaska Tuesday into
Wednesday, while other solutions delay impacts into Southcentral
Alaska until midweek. Confidence in the details decreases during
this period; however, the overall pattern continues to support a
persistent feed of moisture into southern Alaska, especially
across Southcentral.

LM

&&


.AVIATION...


PANC... Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will continue to impact
the terminal this evening and overnight with strongest gusts of
between 35 to 45 kts expected from about 7Z to 12Z as a front
pushes through the area and winds bend more towards the terminal.
However, lighter northerly winds may precede the front as the
stronger winds stay over the Arm towards Fire Island allowing for
some LLWS concerns this evening. VFR conditions are expected to
persist, though any passing showers may drop ceilings below 5,000
ft AGL and briefly drop visibility to MVFR. Downslope flow will
continue to keep most showers out of Anchorage, though chances
will increase overnight.


&&


$$