Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

884
FXAK68 PAFC 310024
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 PM AKDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The primary forecast concern in the near-term remains focused on
the deepening low over the Southwest Gulf and AKPEN where light
snow and a rain-snow mix have been prevalent over Kodiak Island
today. Temperatures at lower elevations near the coast have been
slowly creeping up through the day and are currently hovering in
the mid 30s. As such, any light snow has been primarily melting as
it reaches the surface and only a light dusting is expected
through tonight...with a little more coverage expected later this
evening as temperatures dip back down near to below freezing. The
one caveat will be the easterly flow off the warmer water
inhibiting those minor accumulations. As the low moves further
into the Gulf, precipitation will gradually come to an end. Higher
elevations of the island will see more snow accumulation with
several additional inches possible near or above 500 feet through
tonight as easterly winds strengthen, increasing upslope forcing
along the higher terrain.

Elsewhere, high pressure has kept inland Southcentral generally
clear and dry, with the exception of the eastern Kenai Peninsula,
where increased upslope could increase chances for scattered
showers along the eastern slopes of the Kenai Mountains. The Gulf
low will bring some increased cloud cover to coastal areas along
the northern Gulf, but inland areas will continue to see clear and
dry conditions for several more days. The typical gap flow winds
will increase as the surface low deepens over the Gulf and upper
level high pressure builds overhead tomorrow and into Wednesday.

The next weather-maker, a front associated with a North Pacific low
tracking south of the Central Aleutians and AKPEN, arrives near
Kodiak Island late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another round of precipitation.

- PP


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a weakening low currently
centered over the southeastern Bering, as energy associated with
the system that brought widespread snowfall to the Southwest
Alaska coast shifts into the Gulf. This low continues to drift to
the south towards the Alaska Peninsula and dissipates this
afternoon as it opens into a decaying surface trough stretching
across the AKPen into the North Pacific. The last of the snowfall
along the northern AKPen and Bristol Bay coast will taper off from
north to south through this afternoon and evening. Weak ridging
moving in from the north, combined with clearing skies and calm
winds, will promote fog development overnight tonight into Tuesday
morning across the Kuskokwim Delta. Elsewhere across Southwest
Alaska, dry and mostly clear conditions expected through the
short-term.

Attention shifts early Tuesday morning to a North Pacific low
approaching the Western Aleutians as its front lifts northward
towards the rest of the Aleutian Chain. Models have come into
fairly good agreement on the timing of the front and the eastward
track just to the south of the Aleutian Chain through the short-
term forecast period. Precipitation along the front steadily
progresses eastward across the Aleutian Chain through Tuesday and
along the Alaska Peninsula through Wednesday. The onset of
precipitation for Adak and Atka will likely begin as a rain/snow
mix before transitioning to plain rain as warmer, southerly flow
erodes away the colder airmass in place, causing snow levels to
steadily rise. Farther east, the eastern Aleutians and southern
Alaska Peninsula likely sees more snow as the system further
occludes through Wednesday and continues east towards the Gulf.
High end small craft winds with widespread gale-force gusts along
the front can be expected through Tuesday before the front begins
to weaken Wednesday.

-JH

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

By Friday, a low developing along the triple point may form in
the western Gulf, which would promote a more active pattern for
Southcentral Alaska. Easterly winds will increase along the Gulf
coast into next weekend, with precipitation spreading along the
region as well. Some stronger northerly gap winds through typical
locations will remain possible through the period as these systems
track into the Gulf. Temperatures trending warmer and approaching
seasonal averages across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska look
to remain steady through the long-term. There is still some
uncertainty regarding the depth of this low and how far north it
progresses. The pattern appears to remain unsettled for much of
the weekend into early next week, with multiple lows approaching
the northern Gulf and moving along south of the Aleutian Chain.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$