Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

881
FXAK68 PAFC 130054
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Another quite seasonably cold and clear afternoon is underway
across the majority of Southcentral. Cold northerly flow between
the everlasting Bering ridge and longwave trough in place over the
Mainland and Northwest Canada continues, but is temporarily
waning as a shortwave ridge begins to move overhead. Gusty gap
winds through coastal fjords (including near Seward, Whittier and
Valdez) are proving stubborn, but have still been trending
downwards with time today. To the south, a complex low with
multiple mesoscale centers continues to aimlessly wobble across
the eastern Gulf. One of such smaller centers is passing near
Middleton Island, sending a spiral band of snow showers past as
the center drifts to the south. Otherwise, dry and sunny
conditions continue across nearly the entire outlook area.

For the outlook through this weekend, there is not much change in
terms of the expected pattern progression. We will have one more
night of relatively still and mostly clear conditions tonight,
allowing low spots over valleys to cool to frigid temperatures
through the early morning once again. Favored cold spots such as
Willow, Kenai and east Anchorage will once again see temperatures
dip to the -10s to -20s, and perhaps to the -30s again over the
lower parts of the Copper Basin.

By Friday evening, cloud cover will begin to increase ahead of a
digging Arctic trough approaching the western Alaska Range as flow
aloft begins to turn southwesterly out ahead of this disturbance.
The higher cloud coverage will prevent Friday night from becoming
as cold compared to the past several nights, albeit still well
below average for mid March. On Saturday, the main trough axis
will continue to dig southeast into the Cook Inlet region as it
begins to pull moisture north into Prince William Sound from the
weak Gulf low. Confidence continues to increase that much of the
coastal areas surrounding Prince William Sound will see
accumulating snowfall with this system, including in and around
Valdez, Cordova and Whittier. However, given relatively
subtle/weak forcing with this setup, expect only a few inches of
new snowfall across this corridor between Saturday morning and
Sunday morning. Some snow could spread all the way into the Copper
Basin as well, but this is less certain due to the amount of very
dry and cold air in place that will need to saturate before snow
is able to reach ground level. Some very light snow could spill
into parts of Anchorage and the Mat Valley before the main trough
moves past towards Saturday evening, but this potential still
looks rather limited at this time.

By Sunday, another reinforcing Arctic trough will drive south
along the western Alaska Range towards Kodiak Island as the
initial wave closes off and stalls out over the northern Gulf.
This will start another surge of cold air advection into
Southcentral, along with increasing gap winds once again for the
start of the new week.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Today through Saturday)...

The persistent cold northerly flow continues over Southwest
Alaska and the Bering Sea. Generally, much of interior Southwest
Alaska and the western Bering Sea will continue to stay dry, while
the Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska Peninsula, and eastern Aleutians will
contend with snow showers and blowing snow as shortwaves track
southwards around the ridge and across western AK and the eastern
Bering Sea through Friday night.

A shortwave dropping south across the eastern Bering Sea will
bring a quick shot of light snow showers across the Kuskokwim
Delta, Nunivak Island, and the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon.
Winds along the Alaska Peninsula and the Kuskokwim Delta coastline
remain breezy, allowing for the continued possibility for mild
blowing snow and reduced visibilities. As this system tracks into
the southern Bering Sea, the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula will
see a similarly quick shot of snowfall through Friday afternoon.
The eastern Aleutians from Nikolski to Akutan likely become the
focus of the strongest winds and heaviest snowfall late tonight
into early Friday morning with this system. Beyond Friday,
conditions dry out while the same pattern of ridging across the
western Bering and northerly flow across the eastern Bering and
Southwest Alaska continues. This will mark a prominent shift to an
inactive pattern across Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea, and the
Aleutians. With ridging dominating the pattern, expect dry
conditions across the region through the weekend, with cold
northerly flow persisting.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The long-term forecast begins late Sunday with the persistent
upper-level ridge over the western Bering and Aleutians remaining
firmly entrenched over the region. Downstream, a positively
tilted, elongated upper-level trough bisecting Southcentral and
extending south into the Western Gulf and across the North
Pacific.

Although the main surface low looks to be exiting the region,
various vorticity maxima along the leading edge of the upper-level
trough will help to develop and sustain compact, meso-scale
surface lows across the northern Gulf along a stalled surface
trough. Where, exactly, these features spin up are extremely
difficult to pinpoint in the short-term, let alone the long-term
forecast. However, any development of surface features will
likely lead to lingering snow for places along the immediate
coast and/or Kodiak Island. These features will also aid in
strengthening the already increasing pressure gradient along the
as cold air moves in from the interior, resulting in another round
of very strong and gusty gap winds for typical locations into
early next week.

A secondary upper-level trough will quickly dig south on the
heels of the first, likely allowing any surface low development
in the northern Gulf to further strengthen Monday into Tuesday,
with light snow chances redeveloping for areas expected to see
light snow this coming weekend. The bigger impact from this second
upper-level trough, however, will be the return of arctic air
streaming from the Interior across the Southern Mainland, with the
strongest push of this arctic air late Sunday into Monday for
Southwest Alaska and Monday into Tuesday for Southcentral.

As stated yesterday, uncertainty grows by early next week as to
how quickly this trough closes off into an upper-level low as it
moves south over the Gulf. If this feature does move quickly into
the Gulf, an upper-level ridge may move over the Southern
Mainland. Any upper-level ridge will likely shut off the cold air
advection, at least aloft, and potentially allow for a slow but
steady warm up by the end of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with light and variable winds will persist
through the TAF period.

&&


$$