Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

459
FXAK68 PAFC 021249
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 AM AKDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday evening)...

Most of Southcentral continues to sit within a zone of weak flow
and a general lack of significant upper level features. A
shortwave trough axis is beginning to make slow westward progress
along the AlCan border, and this will become a key player in the
threat for thunderstorms across parts of the region later today.
Scattered clouds left over from yesterday`s shower and
thunderstorm activity are meandering across the Chugach and
Talkeetna Mountains, but most of the Mat-Su Valleys, Anchorage and
northern Kenai Peninsula are staying relatively clear and cool
once again. Farther south, bands of rain and low stratus are
pushing out into the Gulf and over Kodiak Island on the leading
portion of a low and attendant front moving east out of the AKPen
region.

Looking to the forecast, it`s looking like a "rinse and repeat"
scenario for the next couple of days for most spots. Things
continue to look on track for a bit more prolific thunderstorm
activity along and ahead of the shortwave trough now approaching
the Copper Basin this afternoon and evening. The highest
thunderstorm coverage still looks to remain over the Talkeetna
Mountains and northern/western Copper Basin. However, some model
solutions are hinting that a cluster of showers and isolated
thunderstorms could attempt to move off of the terrain down into
the Mat Valley and parts of Anchorage later this evening into
tonight. Even so, if this does pan out, we`re still expecting the
majority of any lightning activity to remain over the mountains.
Aside from the threat for a few afternoon showers and storms, it
should be another pleasant day for most of the Mat-Su, Anchorage
Bowl and Kenai Peninsula.

For Friday, what`s left of the shortwave trough will begin to
drift back north over the Copper Basin and Talkeetna Mountains
through the afternoon. This could help extend the threat for
thunderstorms for one more day across a similar corridor, mainly
across the western Copper Basin and Talkeetnas. Meanwhile, steady
rainfall over Kodiak Island will taper off by Friday morning as
the low pulls away and out into the open Gulf waters.

For the July 4th holiday, things are still not exactly shaping up
to be a clear and sunny day. An unusually potent Arctic low is
expected to shift from Southwest into the western Gulf as the day
progresses, sending another batch of unseasonably cool air into
the western Gulf and across southwestern portions of Southcentral.
A band of steady rain will likely form ahead of the low, though
the location for the axis of the heaviest rainfall is still a bit
uncertain. Right now, it looks like much of the Kenai Peninsula,
Cook Inlet and greater Anchorage area will see periods of steady
rain during the morning hours, with areas farther north likely to
stay drier. The good news is that all but the southern side of the
Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island will have a good chance to see
steady rain taper off by the afternoon and evening hours. Stay
tuned as we continue to hammer out the details for the upcoming
holiday weekend.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

Generally cloudy and unsettled as several lows move across the
area through the end of the week. Expect widespread rain and
breezy winds, especially for areas along the Alaska Peninsula that
typically see terrain-induced enhancement of northwesterly winds,
like King Cove. Otherwise, there will be about a 20 to 40% chance
of afternoon/evening thunderstorms in interior Southwest Alaska
(Eastern Kuskokwim Valley and along the Western Alaska Range)
through the next few days, but increasing cloud cover with an
incoming Arctic low will work to reduce thunderstorm chances by
Friday and Saturday afternoons.

-KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A weak upper level low over the Gulf will bring clouds with
showers before exiting the region Sunday evening. Sunnier and
warmer weather for the rest of the week for southcentral Alaska.

A Bering low will remain stationary near Shemya then begin to
proceed eastward overnight Sunday. The progression is slowed by an
upper level ridge over the Bering Strait. The low reaches the
eastern Bering by Tuesday and tracks over the Alaska Peninsula
Wednesday, bringing clouds and showers in its path, including
Southwest Alaska.

-SS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. A weak
south wind out of the Turnagain Arm could affect the terminal
towards the late afternoon and evening today, but expect peak
gusts to stay less than 25 kts. A few showers drifting off of the
Chugach Mountains could also reach the terminal late this evening
into tonight.

&&


$$