Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

800
FXAK68 PAFC 010033
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Friday)...

A beautiful day is under way across Southcentral Alaska to close out
the coldest March in the 73 year period of record for Anchorage, and
likely many other locations across the area. In fact, much of the
Anchorage Bowl breached the freezing mark (32 Fahrenheit)
yesterday for the first time since February 6th.

Meteorlogically-quiet, dry weather with temperatures finally near
climatological averages will prevail through the week as surface
high pressure remains in place. This will be the case for today
(Tuesday) as well... GOES Water Vapor imagery shows a subtle
shortwave trough embedded within northwest flow aloft dropping
down into Southcentral from the Interior of Alaska. Gap winds from
`inland` towards the Gulf of Alaska will intensify later today as
this aforementioned trough shortwave aloft helps induce a surface
trough across the northern Gulf. Winds won`t be anything too out
of the ordinary, but we do anticipate increases to small craft
(>23kt) in the favored locations (Valdez Narrows, Copper River
Delta) as a result of feature.

Attention for the area turns to an area of low pressure that`s
expected to move into the Gulf Wednesday Night into Thursday. The
northern periphery of the front and gusty easterly winds will
approach and likely affect Kodiak Island, including Kodiak City, on
Thursday. Recent model trends have shifted the low ever so slightly
south, which is more favorable for a lighter snow event, with rain
mixed in at times, particularly during late afternoon thanks to
solar heating. Should any more shifts south occur in the trek of
this low, little to no precipitation may fall.

Otherwise, no noteworthy weather is expected to close out the week
on Friday. A low will anchor itself across Southwest Alaska, with
some models suggesting a stronger low developing on the frontal
triple point of the aforementioned Gulf low. Weather Friday night
into the weekend will likely be a result of how these features
interact... but there`s reason to believe we can be looking at
precipitation entering the chat again come Saturday or Sunday. Temps
normal. Enjoy the sunshine.

-Brown

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...


The front of a North Pacific low continues across the southern
Bering, bringing precipitation to the Pribilofs and Aleutian
Islands from Adak to Akutan. The low`s center will remain south of
the Aleutians as it continues eastward into the Gulf on Thursday.
Meanwhile, snow is expected for Unalaska and Akutan, however,
warm Pacific air will move northward and lift snow levels on
Wednesday, changing the precipitation to rain. The low will then
take a more southeastward track and its front will dissipate as it
passes south of Sand Point resulting in scattered to isolated
rain/snow showers into the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday morning. Snow accumulation just over one inch may
be possible through Wednesday morning for Unalaska, Akutan, and
the western Alaska Peninsula. High end small craft winds with
widespread gale- force gusts along the front are expected before
the front begins to weaken Wednesday. Northerly winds return
Thursday across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.


Across the Southwest mainland, weak ridging from the north,
combined with clearing skies and calm winds, may cause patchy fog
development overnight for areas of the Kuskokwim Delta and the
greater Bristol Bay region. Dry and mostly clear conditions
expected through Thursday afternoon.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

By Saturday, the remnants of a triple point low in the northern
Gulf of Alaska may continue spreading cloud cover back over
Southcentral Alaska, including some light showers over the coast.
Easterly onshore flow along the northern Gulf coast will likely
promote showers for coastal communities. Out west, a large ridge
over the central Bering sea will continue to mute weather activity
for much of the region, however a low pressure system to the west
will be on approach. Namely, by Saturday morning a low pressure
system will approach the westernmost Aleutians spreading a front
ahead of the low center. By Sunday morning, the ridge may shift
slowly into the eastern Bering, allowing the low in the western
Bering to spread, but the strength of the low may have diminished
significantly by then. By Sunday afternoon, a north Pacific low
may approach the northern Gulf, but confidence on placement and
timing of this system is low and strength of the potential system
is relatively weak. By Monday morning the low in the Gulf may
deepen, intensifying its presence in the Gulf lending towards a
pattern shift for Southcentral Alaska towards wetter and cloudier
conditions. This is expected to continue through Tuesday.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$