Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

432
FXAK68 PAFC 051251
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 AM AKDT Tue May 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A trough and surface low near Kodiak Island will lift north into
the Interior over the next 24 hours, leading to more coastal
precipitation and afternoon gap winds into Anchorage, the Mat
Valley and Copper Valley. Shower activity will increase this
evening along the western faces of the Kenai, Chugach, and
Talkeetna Mountains as lapse rates increase due to some colder air
moving in behind todays trough. Behind this trough is another
that is digging south into Southwest Alaska today, over Kodiak
Island tonight, and then eventually lifting slightly into the
Copper Valley and northern Gulf by late Wednesday. This will wrap
additional cold air into the area, leading to more instability and
widespread shower conditions for Wednesday. There is a good chance
for some much needed sunshine from the western Kenai south to
Kodiak by late Wednesday, but yet another trough will drop south
from the Arctic into Southwest on Thursday, leading to more
southerly flow aloft and additional moisture and scattered showers
developing in the afternoon.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

The low near Kodiak Island is continuing move north along the
Gulf coast with scattered showers spilling into Bristol Bay this
morning. Cold, northerly subsidence from an arctic trough moves in
just to the west of the low across the Kuskokwim Delta, the
central Bering Sea and portions of the Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. Gusty winds across these areas should start to diminish
throughout the day today. Precipitation across Southwest Alaska
will also start to diminish, noticeably this afternoon, though
chances will linger near higher elevations of the Alaska and
Aleutian Mountain ranges tonight.

Expect drier and more benign weather across the AKPEN and
Southwest Wednesday and perhaps even Thursday as a ridge moves in
from the Bering Sea. A weak wave on Thursday afternoon could bring
some light scattered showers across the Kuskokwim Valley and
potentially interior Bristol Bay, but the probability is overall
low. There are better chances for these areas on Friday though, as
a bigger arctic low sinks into Southwest Alaska. Additional cold
air from the north will keep overnight lows in the 20s and if
skies are clear during the day, cold air aloft could mean higher
lapse rates and a little more instability in the atmosphere (thus
convective showers).

Farther west, a gale-force front from a Kamchatka low will begin
making its presence felt across the Western Aleutians this morning
as the ridge over the Bering mentioned above moves east to the
central and eastern Bering. Light rain and gusty southeast winds
are a good bet over Shemya early this afternoon through early
Wednesday morning before the moisture axis moves to Kiska by
Wednesday morning. The front looks to bring Adak and Atka some
light rain showers Wednesday morning, but the chances will depend
on the influence of the strong Bering ridge. As the ridge moves
east to the eastern Bering by Wednesday afternoon, a weak North
Pacific low will lift north to just south of Adak/Atka by late
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Adak and Atka can expect
light rain and gusty easterly to northeasterly winds Wednesday
night through Thursday morning before precipitation becomes more
scattered in nature by Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long term forecast looks to be characterized by vertically
stacked high pressure across the Bering and general troughing
south of the Aleutian Chain and across the Gulf. On Friday, there
is fairly good consensus between the global models of an upper
trough or closed low digging across mainland Alaska. At the
surface, the surface troughing looks to consolidate into a closed
surface low with a front that lifts northward across the Gulf. If
guidance continues to be on track, precipitation will be sent
northward across the Gulf coast, and potentially spilling over
into Southcentral. Models also roughly agree that coastal ridging
will try to develop ahead of the front, in which case could create
some degree of a Turnagain Arm wind from an east to west oriented
pressure gradient. By Sunday morning, there are significant
differences within the models of surface low placement across the
Gulf. That said, the pattern looks to remain unsettled through the
long term.


-AM

&&





.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog and stratus will likely remain in the vicinity of the
Terminal early this morning, but the inversion will continue to
weaken throughout the day as the atmosphere becomes more unstable.
Turnagain winds will likely move over the Terminal late this
afternoon as a low pressure system moves into the Interior.
Showers may develop over the western Kenai Mountains and train
over the Terminal later this evening, which will likely lower vis
and cigs to MVFR or IFR after midnight.

&&


$$