Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

085
FXAK68 PAFC 100107
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 PM AKDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Saturday)...

Clear skies, calm winds, and warming temperatures across most of
Southcentral today, with the exception of some lifting areas of
low stratus of Kachemak Bay, Kodiak, and the Copper River Basin.
By evening, a tightening surface pressure gradient along the coast
will induce gusty offshore winds along the Gulf coast for
locations like Seward, Whittier, and Valdez. Expect similar
conditions overnight tonight as this morning, with the potential
for low stratus and/or fog to build in along Cook Inlet
communities, including Anchorage for Friday morning. While higher
surface pressure and weak winds support fog formation, there`s a
question of whether high clouds streaming in ahead of the first
trough will disrupt radiational cooling and fog formation.

Skies will begin to fill with the potential for precipitation
returning by Friday afternoon as a frontal boundary over Southwest
Alaska finally makes it`s way into Southcentral. Maintaining
generally weak flow aloft, areas that are typically sheltered by
downsloping wind effects will not be as protected with this
system. However, the moisture content and energy associated with
this system is unimpressive, leading to a light round of rain/snow
mix late Friday morning for Mat/Su, Anchorage, and Western Kenai.
This will transition to a plain rain by the afternoon and moving
out of the area, bringing an end to the precipitation by the late
afternoon.

Drier, but mostly cloudy, conditions return for Saturday, though
the next trough will begin moving in later that afternoon. Kodiak
Island and Western Susitna will be the first locations to see
precipitation as the front moves through Saturday afternoon and
evening. As the upper trough progresses, it develops a surface
low in the northern Gulf that will bring more widespread
precipitation to Mainland Southcentral from Saturday evening into
early Sunday morning. Similarly to the pattern Friday, with weak
flow aloft, downsloping is expected to play less of a role,
allowing for widespread light precipitation to fill in across most
of Southcentral. Precipitation type is currently expected to
begin as a rain/snow mix for nighttime/early morning periods, and
plain rain into the late morning/afternoon.

-CL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A front is currently working its way into the Kuskokwim Delta
coast, bringing light precipitation and elevated winds to the
region. With temperatures so close to freezing, precipitation will
fall as either wet snow or a rain/snow mix. A general 1 to 2
inches of accumulation is expected with this front as it moves
over Southwest Alaska tonight and into tomorrow morning. Another
front from a Kamchatka low moves across the Bering Sea with gale
force gusts Friday, weakening as it reaches the Pribilof Islands
as a rain/snow mix Friday night and the Kuskokwim Delta as snow
early Saturday morning. Accumulations are again expected to be
light, but showers may linger through the weekend for all of
Southwest AK as an upper level trough provides support aloft. The
aforementioned upper level trough will drop down over the Alaska
Peninsula on Sunday, allowing northwesterly flow and cold air
advection to cool temperatures and create gusty conditions through
bays and passes.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the somewhat active
pattern Alaska has been under will come to an end through the long
term period. A cold airmass spreads southward across the Bering
and Southwest Alaska late Sunday into Monday behind a vigorous
shortwave digging through the Gulf of Alaska. The cold air
advection will provide the only notable weather to speak, with
gusty westerly flow through the Alaska Peninsula and into the
western Gulf. Kodiak Island, in particular, will likely see an
increase in westerly winds on Monday and Tuesday with gusts of 35
to 40 mph currently forecast and stronger winds through the
Kamishak Gap and Barren Islands. Depending on how the evolution of
the departing trough and the magnitude of cold air advection,
stronger wind gusts are not out of the question. Beyond Tuesday,
flow aloft across both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska becomes
mostly zonal while a broad but benign upper trough slowly
overspreads the Bering from the west. This will see seasonable
temperatures and a minimal chance for precipitation later next
week.

BL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC... VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon through the
evening. Areas of fog are possible overnight into tomorrow
morning. Friday afternoon, snow and rain showers may reduce
visibility and ceilings to MVFR conditions.

&&

$$