Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

261
FXAK68 PAFC 031311
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
511 AM AKDT Sun May 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad ridge encompassing most
of the Gulf of Alaska with a well defined trough positioned to the
west of the ridge. In between the ridge and trough axis shows a
modest fetch of moisture surging northwards towards Southcentral. As
has been advertised over the past few days, back-to-back systems
will bring widespread precipitation to much of Southcentral through
early Tuesday morning. The first of these systems has already
resulted in widespread precipitation over Kodiak Island and the
Northern Gulf Coast as the front moves inland and a midlevel
shortwave moves along the periphery of the ridge. The trough to the
west will pivot to more negatively tilted later today before merging
with another systems lifting out of the North Pacific, bringing a
reinforcing push of moisture and the resulting precipitation into
Southcentral on Monday. The main areas of concern continue to be the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound, where there will
be little in the way of a break between these two storms. Current
forecasts are for precipitation amounts on the order of 2-2.5 inches
from tonight through Monday night, with greater amounts at higher
elevation. Precipitation amounts will be much lower away from the
Gulf coast: up to 0.25 inches for much of Copper River Valley,
around 0.5 inches for Anchorage and Mat Valley, around 1 inch for
Susitna Valley and Western Kenai Peninsula, and around 1.5 inches
for Kodiak Island.

The aforementioned low will rapidly weaken overnight Monday, but
will linger over the northern Gulf keeping conditions along the
coast unsettled and showery through at least midweek.

- PP/KC


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Ridging has settled in the central Bering Sea and along the edge
of the Kuskokwim Delta. Low stratus and patchy fog sits beneath the
ridge, spilling into the Kuskokwim Delta and Western Capes. A
Kamchatka low with an attendant/weakening gale force front arrives
to the Western Aleutians midday today. With the strong surface
high pressure in control across the Bering blocking incoming
systems, the trend in the models with this front is to push it
farther southward more quickly, with the low and front solidly
moving south of the Aleutian Chain Monday morning. The strong high
pressure across the central Bering extends to the western Bering
in the wake of this low/front. Rain is expected between Attu and
Adak today.

A North Pacific low moves towards Kodiak Island over the next
couple of days, pushing its front into Southwest Alaska tonight.
Rain will work its way southeast to northwest across the southern
Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Mainland late tonight through
Monday, likely lingering through Tuesday. Northerly flow off the
Bering Sea and some cold air in place across the AKPEN may allow
snow flakes to mix in with rain Monday and Tuesday.

Another Kamchatka low sends its front eastward to the Western
Aleutians and western Bering by Tuesday morning. Expect light to
moderate rain across the Western Aleutians as well as gusty
southeast gale-force winds with this system through Tuesday.
Showers along the AKPEN look to taper off Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning as the strong central Bering ridge begins to
drift east towards the eastern Bering and Mainland Southwest.

KM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The long term forecast favors a ridge of high pressure over the
Bering Sea and a broad trough taking shape over the Gulf of Alaska
by the end of next week. Generally dry conditions are forecast
across Southwest Alaska and also the Bering Sea, from Saint
Lawrence Island to Dutch Harbor while high pressure reigns. Across
the western Bering a Kamchatka low is forecast to bring a front
into the Western Aleutians, beginning on Tuesday. The front will
makes as much eastward progress as possible, likely overspreading
Adak and Atka on Wednesday, before the front succumbs to the
stronger area of high pressure over the Central Bering and
dissipates. Further east, Southcentral will be situated downstream
of the broader developing trough over the Gulf, which will favor
multiple disturbances tracking into Southcentral with multiple
chances for precipitation.


BL

&&





.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will gradually give way to MVFR with periods
of IFR or lower as widespread precipitation moves into the area
through tonight. Gusty southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will will
taper off by 14-16Z as they begin to turn more down inlet and
northerly winds work into the terminal.

&&


$$