Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

990
FXAK68 PAFC 021349
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
549 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The system that brought strong winds to the Anchorage/Eagle River
Hillsides and the Knik Valley has moved inland towards the central
ALCAN border as of this morning. Winds have decreased at ridgetop
levels, but a modest pressure gradient still in place over the
western Chugach Mountains have allowed for continuing gusty gap
winds through the Turnagain Arm and Knik Valley this morning. These
gusty gap winds will continue today with ridgetop winds also
increasing some tonight ahead of the next system. Winds will also
remain gusty along the Copper River Valley. Snowfall over the
eastern Kenai and Prince William Sound has been transitioning over
to a rain/snow mix or all rain at lower elevations as precipitation
turned more showery. A band of showers extending from the western
Kenai Peninsula up through the Talkeetna Mountains has formed along
a weak boundary/convergence zone along an area of weak isentropic
lift. Temperatures are warm enough at lower elevations that any
precipitation out of this will be rain with snow for the
Talkeetna`s. This band is expected to wind down by mid to late
morning as the boundary pushes northwards.

Most of Southcentral will see drier conditions today with some
lingering showers for the Gulf coast. However, water vapor imagery
shows the next system is already working into the southern Gulf this
morning with another push of moisture for tonight and Sunday.
Precipitation will first spread over Kodiak Island tonight as a deep
trough over the Bering and Aleutian Islands transitions into an
open wave and pivots to more negatively tilted. Precipitation will
then spread up the eastern Kenai and towards the northern Gulf coast
by Sunday morning. This system will bring a good push of warmer air
in addition to precipitation with snow levels rising to 2-3 kft.
This trough then merges with a system lifting north out of the North
Pacific by Sunday afternoon with a reinforcing push of moisture.

There is still some uncertainty as to how much moisture will move
inland as models continue to struggle the placement of
precipitation as the GFS wants to dig the trough deeper and faster
than the NAM. For now, how continued to go with the middle ground
solution with the potential for some light precipitation to move
inland.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Overall benign conditions are expected across Southwest Alaska and
the Bering Sea as a weak open trough lingers across the eastern
Bering and Mainland. Further west, a ridge builds ahead of the
next developing Kamchatka low. The ridge will spend the weekend
traversing east before settling in the central/northern Bering Sea.
Pockets of isolated rain showers are possible along the
Aleutians, with more widespread stratiform rain across Southwest
through today before tapering off overnight.

A Kamchatka low with an attendant/weakening gale force front
arrives to the Western Aleutians midday Sunday to Sunday
afternoon. With strong surface high pressure in control across the
Bering blocking incoming systems, the trend in the models with
this front is to push it farther southward more quickly, with the
low and front solidly moving south of the Aleutian Chain Monday
morning. High pressure moves in in the wake of this low/front,
with all attention shifting eastward to the aforementioned North
Pacific low/front that will impact Southwest Alaska.

KM/AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Rain should be ongoing across parts of Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska on Tuesday from a inland moving front on Monday. The
parent low will eventually move into Prince William Sound later on
Tuesday, prolonging rain showers across the region. Beyond day 4
a broad upper trough will overtake the southern Gulf through the
end of the week. Southwest Alaska will likely experience a couple
of dry days on Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure expands
into the mainland from the Bering. Southcentral Alaska, however,
may still see isolated to scattered rain chances linger through
Thursday. The next North Pacific low then lifts across the Gulf
into southern Alaska on Friday with renewed rain chances for both
Southwest and Southcentral.

BL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...A N-S band of showers may briefly work into the terminal
this morning before moving north and dissipating later this
morning. VFR conditions are expected to continue but a brief dip
in visibility is possible if a shower moves in. Sustained
southeasterly winds of 10 to 15 kts...with gusts up to 30 kts will
be possible through tonight.

&&


$$