Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

989
FXAK68 PAFC 151257
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 AM AKDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/
Monday through Wednesday evening)...

Discussion:

Winds are quickly winding down this morning as the front and
upper-level wave responsible for the winds and rain have both
moved well inland. A trailing, and weaker, upper-level shortwave
is currently (as of 4 AM) driving northward from Prince William
Sound and is spreading a few showers from Seward north into the
Susitna Valley. For the most part, these showers are not amounting
to much other than a few sprinkles across the area. This feature,
however, has allowed the Turnagain Arm wind to persist into the
early morning hours, with West Anchorage still seeing gusts up to
30 mph as of 4 AM. Again, these winds should diminish quickly,
over the next couple of hours, as the wave moves farther inland,
the coastal ridge extends westward, and a low south of the AKPen
moves east.

Although a ridge will build over the Southern Mainland, a series
of shortwaves will continue to rotate around the low moving from
the AKPen into the Gulf and around the periphery of the ridge
through midweek. These features will help to maintain unsettled
conditions across Southcentral in the form of occasional cloud
cover and scattered showers. A stronger wave on Tuesday will
likely bring more widespread showers across the west-facing
slopes of the mountains as well as some isolated thunderstorms to
the western Talkeetna Mountains and northern half of the Copper
River Basin. The threat for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms return for Wednesday afternoon and evening as yet
another wave moves NE to SW through the Copper River Basin.

Rain will continue for Kodiak Island through Tuesday morning as
the low moves from the western Gulf to the eastern Gulf before
weakening.

Winds over the next several days will be dominated by a more south
to north flow with the ridge south of a building trough over
Interior Alaska. This will allow for more seasonal, diurnally
driver seabreezes for coastal locations.

-TM


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday afternoon)...

Currently the weather pattern over Southwest Alaska and the Bering
is defined by a vertically stacked high pressure, centered over
the Western Aleutians with ridging extending eastward over the
Bering, and a weakening surface low south of the Alaska Peninsula.
The weakening pressure gradient will allow for gusty winds out of
the Western Alaska Range is morning and afternoon, as well as
widespread rain showers over the Greater Bristol Bay region and
the Kuskokwim Delta. Northerly gap winds across the Aleutian Chain
have been elevated as well and will most likely stay that way
through this afternoon.

One of the more pronounced features last night in the set-up was
a band of rain showers over the Kuskokwim Delta. However, rain
has diminished and will likely come to and end by tonight.
Confidence remains high towards the pattern becoming increasingly
benign with the departure and weakening of the surface low
pressure system south of the Alaska Peninsula. Showers across
Southwest will become increasingly sparse, winds to diminish, and
fog/low stratus to remain in the Bering. Periods of potentially
dense fog may continue for the Pribilofs, most probable in the
early mornings and overnight. Expect daytime high temperatures
across the region to increase into midweek as the plentiful cloud
cover over Southwest deteriorates.

-CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Southcentral: An upper level ridge over the Eastern Gulf of
Alaska moves eastward and a low south of Kodiak Island gradually
migrates northeastward. These will bring southerly flow to
Southcentral and Kodiak Island resulting in steady rain for Prince
William Sound and Eastern Alaska Peninsula Wednesday and
Thursday. The dry trend further inland Wednesday into Friday
remains 60% likely as models persistently show a cutoff of
moisture in the Anchorage Bowl, Western Kenai Peninsula and Mat-
Su Valleys.

As the week progresses though, the chance for thunderstorms and
rain showers returns for the Copper River Basin Thursday and
Friday. This chance spreads westward into the Susitna Valley next
Saturday and Sunday. Though confidence in both placement and
exact timing of these weather elements from Thursday into next
weekend is low, the deep southerly push of moisture and the
introduction of an westerly-moving ridge from the Yukon is an
indicator of end of week / weekend thunderstorms and showers to
the area. The chance of occurrence over the four days for both
the Copper River Basin and the Susitna Valley though increases as
high pressure in the Yukon strengthens and brings the ridge
farther west.

Southwest, Bering Sea and the Aleutians: A weak low moves across
the Bering Sea and over the Mainland bringing showers and cloudy
conditions mid-week. Fog and decreasing precipitation are expected
next weekend as high pressure builds in the Bering Sea.

-DJ

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Expect VFR conditions to prevail through today with
scattered showers developing mainly over the mountains to the east
this afternoon and evening. A relatively weak Turnagain Arm wind
will persist through mid morning, with southeasterly winds
generally less than 10 kts. Gusts to 20 kt will likely continue
until around 6 AM. Winds are then expected to become more westerly
for this afternoon and evening, at around 10 kt, before a shift to
a light southerly wind for tonight through early Tuesday morning.

$$