Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

912
FXAK68 PAFC 141256
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday night)...

Overall, the forecast remains largely unchanged, with the digging
upper level trough stalling over the western Alaska Range.
Meanwhile, multiple weak lows at the surface linger in the Gulf
of Alaska. Moisture will move along the north Gulf coast, bringing
rounds of snowfall to Prince William Sound, Cordova, and Thompson
Pass. Snow accumulations of 6 to 8 inches are likely for
Whittier/Portage, Cordova, and Thompson Pass, and 4 to 6 inches
for Valdez and McCarthy through Sunday night. Snow filtering
farther east will fall over Seward and Anchorage bringing less
than an inch to Anchorage and up to 2 inches for Seward through
this evening. Additionally, light snow works north into the Copper
River Basin and southern Susitna Valley, with accumulations of
less than an inch expected.

Snow tapers off through Sunday afternoon, being replaced with
gusty gap winds as a shortwave trough drops south and merges with
the current system. This will allow another batch of Arctic air
to filter into the region and northerly winds to filter through
the normal coastal gaps and mountain passes. The main concern with
increasing winds will be for areas with freshly fallen snow,
namely Whittier, Valdez, and Thompson Pass who could see areas of
blowing/drifting snow producing periods of significantly reduced
visibilities Sunday evening through Monday.

Lingering cloud cover around the upper low/trough combined with
gusty winds should prevent temperatures from dropping
significantly as the next push of colder air arrives. Still,
expect much below normal temperatures to continue for the
foreseeable future.

-KM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Today through Monday)...

Northerly flow continues over Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea
while conditions across the region remain dry today with any
isolated snow showers along the Alaska Peninsula tapering off this
morning. The large blocking ridge visible in satellite imagery
continues to remain in place centered over the western Aleutians,
while low stratus blankets the western Bering Sea underneath the
ridge. This persistent pattern continues through the remainder of
the weekend and into next week, with relatively inactive weather
expected across Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea, and the
Aleutians.

An Arctic trough digs southwards today across the Interior and
eventually stretches into the Gulf of Alaska for Sunday. With the
ridge remaining nearly stationary, this will again allow for
northerly to northwesterly winds to strengthen across Southwest
Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and the eastern Bering Sea for
Sunday into Monday. These stronger winds combined with low level
cold air advection will lead to areas of heavy freezing spray in
coastal waters along the ice edge and the Pacific-side of the
Alaska Peninsula. Periods of blowing snow will also be possible
for locations including the Kuskokwim Delta coast and portions of
the Alaska Peninsula as winds pick up and antecedent conditions
remain favorable. As low pressure develops in the Gulf, winds are
expected to remain elevated through the early part of next week.

-JH

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday night through
Friday)...

The long-term begins late Monday with a deep upper-level low
centered just east of Kodiak Island moving to an area south of
Middleton Island by early Tuesday morning. The eastward
progression of the upper-level low is in response to a secondary
shortwave diving south across the western half of the state,
moving south of the Alaska Peninsula late Tuesday before
developing into another upper-level low by early Wednesday as the
one over the Gulf begins to weaken.

The upper-level low in the Gulf is acting to support a surface low
that will continue to deepen through Tuesday before filling in,
occluding, and eventually weakening as it loses upper-level
support. Nonetheless, precipitation, falling as snow, will
continue to fall over the Gulf, and, perhaps across areas of the
immediate Gulf coast, through midweek.

The bigger story with these features will be the push of yet
another arctic airmass southward, with the coldest air spilling
into interior Southcentral and all of Southwest Alaska as 850 mb
temperatures fall back to as low as -28C late Monday into Tuesday.
The combination of cold air, strong low-level jet, and tight
pressure gradient between a building ridge over the Interior and
low in the Gulf, will also result in the redevelopment of very
strong gap winds through favored terrain, with the strongest winds
and gusts likely across the Alaska Peninsula and the coastal
waters from the Barren Islands to Unimak Island.

The cold air advection diminishes for a time Wednesday as a
transient upper-level ridge slides south over the west coast of
Alaska. However, another potent upper-level wave then follows and
digs south across Southwest Alaska, lifting the weakening Gulf
low north with light snow for portions of Southcentral and more
arctic air and gusty winds for Southwest Alaska and the Alaska
Peninsula for the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A series of lows in the Gulf of ALaska will move into
Prince William Sound this weekend and a trough moves southward
from the Interior. The result will be MVFR conditions and light
snow Sat afternoon and evening across Anchorage. These conditions
improve by Sunday afternoon.

&&

$$