Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

786
FXAK68 PAFC 120105
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 PM AKDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Several key features in place today that will come into play over
the next several days. Currently, high pressure remains over the
Bering Sea with another stout ridge entrenched over much of the
western Canadian Territories. Various low pressure systems are
positioned around and in between these areas of high pressure.
Several shortwaves have been transiting across the Bering Strait
and northern Alaska, helping to give a bit of lift to afternoon
convection over the past several days. A weak trough has stalled
over the Copper Basin where convection was able to initiate rather
early today resulting in numerous pulse-type showers and isolated
thunderstorms. A shortwave moving in from the west may help to
initiate a bit more convection across the Northern Susitna Valley
and along the western slopes of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains this
afternoon. Steering flow remains weak so any convective shower will
result in some brief heavy downpours. The low stratus and fog that
worked its way up the Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound overnight
and early this morning is starting to mix out this afternoon.
However, the nearly saturated marine layer is expected to fill back
in later tonight through tomorrow morning.

Further south, a low moving up from the North Pacific into the
southwestern Gulf will bring gale force winds as the front lifts
across the Gulf. Gusty east to northeast winds are expected for
Kodiak Island with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall from Friday
afternoon through late Saturday. The heaviest rainfall will
accompany the front as it quickly lifts through resulting in a
general 1-2 inches for many locations across Kodiak Island, though
some isolated 2-3 inches are possible especially for areas of
enhanced upslope flow. This low will track to the south of Kodiak
Island before stalling and weakening near Sand Point.

The eastern Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf coast will also see
widespread rainfall as the front lifts through. Another low will
quickly move up along the eastern periphery of the aforementioned
low...quickly deepening before it lifts towards the eastern Kenai
Peninsula and weakens. This low will bring a modest surge of
moisture north with another round of moderate to heavy
rainfall for the northern Gulf and Prince William Sound.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday afternoon)...

Generally expect one more night of low clouds and fog along the
Bering Sea, then an incoming North Pacific low displaces the
Bering ridge and brings much windier and wetter conditions. In the
Southwest interior, warmer weather and rain showers/thunderstorms
continue this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, then conditions
cool and stabilize under increasing cloud cover this weekend. For
mariners, beware of gusty winds to gale force in Bristol Bay and
along the Alaska Peninsula. Gusts in interior Bristol Bay could
also reach as high as 40-50 mph on Saturday.

Diving into the details... ample surface heating over the
Southwest Alaska interior will continue to promote afternoon
convective activity, with isolated wet thunderstorms possible
this and Friday afternoons. As of around 3:30 PM today, two
robust storms forming along the Western Alaska Range have produced
about 10-20 lightning strikes. Any thunderstorms tomorrow will
likely form in a similar area and then move west to southwestwards
through the afternoon due to southwesterly steering flow ahead of
the North Pacific low. Compared to the previous forecast package,
instability looks much more limited after today, so have trimmed
back on forecast thunderstorm coverage for Friday and Saturday
afternoons.

For tomorrow and into the weekend, a low moving towards the Alaska
Peninsula from the North Pacific will become increasingly
influential for the forecast. Confidence is increasing for gales
in the marine zones along the Pacific side of the Alaska
Peninsula, with the potential for gusts to storm force. Winds will
be weaker north of the Alaska Peninsula, but easterly winds could
gust up to 40-50 mph through Kamishak Bay and into interior
Bristol Bay, while the marine waters of Bristol Bay will likely
see sustained northeasterly winds to 30 kt. The highest rain
amounts will be along the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula
(including Chignik) at around 1 to 1.5 inches of rain from Friday
into the weekend. Rain amounts outside of this area will be much
lower, as the bulk of moisture will remain limited to the Pacific
and Gulf coasts.

-KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Thursday)...

Starting early next week, there will be an upper level trough over
mainland Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska/Kodiak Island, with a ridge
upstream over the Bering Sea/Aleutians. This will be the tail end
of wet and windy weather across much of southern AK and bordering
coastal waters, with showers and clouds lingering across much of
the region. As we continue through the week, the high amplitude
trough will exit eastward to Canada, leaving a weak flow regime
with weak embedded features. The subtropical jetstream over the
North Pacific will also weaken through the week, with a noted
absence of strong storm systems. Thus, the pattern looks very
"summer-like", with daily afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms over southern AK driven by surface heating and
resulting instability and generally light winds across much of the
Aleutian, Gulf and southern AK coastal waters. While the week
will start out cloudy, expect increasing sunshine and warming
temperatures through the week. High pressure will remain centered
across the southern Bering and Aleutians, so widespread low clouds
and fog will be common.

-SEB

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Up inlet winds will continue to bring a marine layer to the
Terminal for the next 18 hours or so. The stratus has burned off
but is expected again early Friday morning and will return
conditions to IFR. Showers are likely again over the mountains but
with no steering flow they will remain over the Front Range.

&&


$$