Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

408
FXAK68 PAFC 170032
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKDT Sat May 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Tuesday afternoon)...

Wet and/or windy for much of Southcentral this weekend as an
unseasonably strong storm system impacts the region. Wind
Advisories are in effect for Anchorage and Lower Mat Valley, and
Special Weather Statements are in effect across Kenai Peninsula
and Prince William Sound. The highest precipitation amounts will
be in Kodiak Island and along the Gulf coast (including Prince
William Sound), with only isolated showers expected for more
interior locations through tomorrow morning. From the latter half
of Sunday through much of Monday, expect rain showers with breezy
afternoon winds. By late Monday, the next low brings widespread
rain as it moves from the North Pacific into Southcentral.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

A now weakening low pressure system, with a center just southeast
of the Pribilof Islands, continues to define the weather pattern
across Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea. The low has pushed a
front into the Southwestern Alaska coast, spreading gusty
southeasterly winds and light-to-moderate rainfall rates across
the region. Strongest winds and rainfall is along the mountainous
Alaska Peninsula and Ahklun Mountains. Precipitation associated
with the low pressure center is broad enough to include the Alaska
Peninsula, the eastern Aleutians including
Unalaska/Nikolski/Akutan, and the Pribilof Islands. The
precipitation type across this system is predominantly rainfall,
with only the Pribilof islands seeing snowfall, but no
accumulations on the ground are expected. The Bering low remains
stationary overnight into Sunday late morning allowing for
continued rain showers and breezy conditions. Through Sunday
afternoon and evening, the Bering low continues to broaden and
weaken as it moves west of the Pribilof Islands. A North Pacific
low moves toward the Alaska Peninsula bringing another round of
rain and southerly winds to Southwest Alaska, portions of the
Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula Monday.

-CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

A broad upper-level trough over the Bering Sea extending into the
Gulf looks to remain in place through at least early to mid next
week. This will support continued unsettled conditions across much
of southern Alaska.

By midweek, focus shifts farther west as the active Bering Sea
pattern continues. Another low is expected to move off Kamchatka,
though model guidance remains split on its track. The
European/Canadian models keep the low a bit farther north of the
Aleutians, while the GFS favors the low just to the south of the
Aleutian Chain. Regardless of the exact track, unsettled
conditions are expected to persist across the Aleutian Chain as
this system and its associated front progress eastward through
Friday.

LM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF package.
Strong southeasterly winds will continue through around midnight
as a frontal system approaches. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph
with gusts 30 to 45 mph are likely. Winds are expected to quickly
turn northerly and diminish as the southeasterly winds coming out
of Turnagain Arm turn down Cook Inlet through Sunday. This
expected wind shift will likely coincide with a period of
continued gusty southeasterly winds aloft over the Chugach
Mountains, resulting in the potential for LLWS from around
midnight through Sunday morning. South-southeasterly winds are
expected to redevelop by late Sunday morning with gusts of up to
35 mph possible through late Sunday evening. Chances for rain
showers increase late Sunday.

-TM

&&


$$