Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

302
FXAK68 PAFC 231330
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
530 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Early morning satellite imagery shows that the large stacked Bering
low has drifted north to Nunivak Island with a trough extending
across the AKPEN and into the Gulf. This trough is lifting north
towards the Gulf coast. At the surface, a weak low has developed off
the eastern Kenai Peninsula coast. This will help to keep showers
ongoing today, mainly along the Gulf Coast, but could see some
showers work further inland. Once again, a good portion of
Southcentral will see a decent amount of cloud cover today, though
there is a chance that there could be some breaks by later this
afternoon which would allow for some diurnally driven showers to
develop. Temperatures will remain pretty consistent with the past
several days with highs near 50 for lower elevations.

For tonight into Sunday, a shortwave trough that is currently
skirting to the south of the central Aleutians will rapidly
deepen into a closed low by late tonight as it dips down towards
the North Pacific. This low will continue to race eastwards
towards the Panhandle. The aforementioned Bering low will drop
south towards Bristol Bay then Kodiak Island as high pressure
builds over northern Alaska and modest ridging builds into the
Bering Sea, then merge with the other low. Easterly flow will set-
up across the Copper Basin and northern Susitna Valley increasing
precipitation chances later today and again Sunday. The stout
ridge building over the Bering will push into Southcentral on
Monday allowing for warmer, drier conditions. Monday has a very
good chance of being our first time this year where we see quite a
few spots across Southcentral reaching 60 degrees.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Light scattered showers are expected to persist through today,
before tapering off overnight tonight across Southwest Alaska.
Sunday into Monday will be drier as high pressure moves into the
region. This will be short lived, however as the next front moves
towards Southwest Alaska Monday afternoon.

Attention quickly turns to an upcoming North Pacific low on
Sunday, which is expected to lift into the Aleutians over the
course of the day. Forecast models show the low deepening to as
low as 972 mb Sunday afternoon before occlusion of the low results
in gradual weakening. An initial front will precede the low with
strong easterly winds moving over the Central Aleutians, with
winds gusting 50 to 60 mph possible for Adak and Atka. Gusty
south to southwesterly winds push into the Alaska Peninsula by
Monday morning. Cold Bay, in particular, will likely see gusts as
high as 55 to 60 mph. On the backside of the low, gusty
northwesterly winds are forecast for Shemya, Adak, and Atka, with
cold air advection aiding in the stronger winds. The good news for
now is that the core of strongest winds on the south side of the
low will likely miss the Aleutians to the south as the low tracks
generally eastward along the Aleutian Chain.

-BL/KM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The pattern in the long term period finally begins to shift by
the middle of next week as the broad upper level longwave
troughing begins to shift east from the Bering Sea into the Gulf.
Several shortwaves will continue to rotate around the anchoring
upper low in the Gulf, while the Bering will see relatively
quieter weather.

By Tuesday morning, the biggest focus will continue to be on the
strong North Pacific low that will have lifted into Bristol Bay by
this time. Gusty winds across the Aleutians and AKPen start to
relax through Tuesday as winds shift to northwesterly on the back
side of the low, while strong southeasterly Kamishak Gap winds
across Southwest Alaska continue through Tuesday. As the front
approaches the Gulf coast, easterly barrier jet winds are expected
to develop along the northern Gulf coast, while gusty southerly
gap winds develop in the typical areas across Southcentral. Heavy
precipitation associated with this system is expected to persist
into Wednesday along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince
William Sound.

The surface low in the Gulf begins to pull away from the coast
into the southeastern Gulf for Thursday, beginning a period of
relatively quieter weather across the Bering and southern Alaska.
Models continue to trend towards weak ridging building across the
Interior by the end of the long term, potentially setting the
stage for weak easterly waves and showery weather across inland
Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Scattered showers will taper off later this morning with
ceilings rising. Cloudy skies could erode some by this afternoon
allowing for some diurnally driven showers along the slopes of
higher terrain. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to persist
through the period.

&&


$$