Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

532
FXAK68 PAFC 100114
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
514 PM AKDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3, Today
through Thursday)...

The primary concern over the next several days will be the cold
and the gusty off-shore gap flow winds in the usual areas (Copper
River Delta, Valdez, Thompson Pass, Seward, Whittier, the Mat
Valley, etc) as an enhanced pressure gradient remains in place
over the coastal mountains. This pattern will remain firmly in
place as a shortwave trough passes through the northerly flow
aloft, strengthening those gradients through Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Eastern southcentral, particularly Thompson Pass,
Copper River Delta and Valdez, will get a quick shot of increasing
wind gusts Wednesday through Thursday as locations to the west
diminish due to a backdoor cold frontal passage - aided by upper
level 300 mb support; however, this enhanced support will quickly
pass before the end of the week. Under this dry and cold northerly
flow, reinforcing shots of Arctic air will help to keep the
aforementioned gradient in place in some form, as low pressure
drifts around the Gulf of Alaska.

AB/PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Thursday)...

A very stable pattern will lead to continued cold and windy
conditions across the eastern Bering Sea and into portions of
Southwest AK the next few days. Perhaps more impactful, conditions
are perfect for large areas of extreme vessel icing across
Southwest AK coastal waters. Taking a look at satellite imagery, a
strong high amplitude blocking ridge is centered over the western
Aleutians and covers much of the western Bering Sea. Deep and
strong northerly flow east of the ridge is maintaining a bitter
cold airmass across the eastern Bering Sea and Southwest AK. Gusty
northerly winds can be found across the eastern Bering and down
across the eastern Aleutians (Nikolski, Dutch Harbor, Akutan) and
southern Alaska Peninsula (False Pass, King Cove, Sand Point),
Satellite-based freezing spray imagery shows extensive freezing
spray across marine areas along the Alaska Peninsula. Cold
Weather Advisories remain in effect along the southern Alaska
Peninsula for wind chills as low as 10 below zero. Winds have
lightened up across the rest of Southwest Alaska, so wind chills
are no longer a big factor. However, temperatures are well below
normal for this time of year, ranging from around zero to 10
degrees above zero. Lastly, a short-wave trough tracking down the
east side of the ridge is bringing snow showers and enhanced winds
to the Pribilof Island and central to eastern Bering Sea this
afternoon.

The upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary through
Thursday, resulting in very persistent weather conditions across
the region. The primary cause of fluctuations in the forecast
will be short-waves tracking southward across western AK and the
eastern Bering Sea. The short-wave in the Bering this afternoon
will move to the eastern Aleutians (Dutch Harbor area) and
southern Alaska Peninsula this evening, bringing a period of
steady snow showers and strong, gusty winds. This will exit to the
North Pacific by early Tuesday morning, but a reinforcing shot of
cold air advection behind it will produce snow showers off the
ice edge and down to the Eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula. A
secondary fast moving upper level short-wave combined with the low
level cold air advection will strengthen gap winds along the
Alaska Peninsula and lead to expansion of marine areas covered by
heavy freezing spray and extreme freezing spray (potential for
4cm/hour or greater icing rates). Sub-zero degree wind chills will
persist across the Alaska Peninsula, where Cold Weather
Advisories remain in effect all the way through Wednesday.

Another short-wave will ride over top of the ridge and across the
northern Bering Sea Wednesday before diving southward Wednesday
night through Thursday. This will bring snow to portions of the
Kuskokwim Delta and down across the eastern Bering Sea to the
Alaska Peninsula. The airmass behind this doesn`t look nearly as
cold as what is in place right now and over the next couple days.
Thus, winds will be weaker, temperatures/wind chills more
moderate, and there will be less heavy freezing spray for marine
areas.

-SEB

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long-term outlook suggests a complex atmospheric setup. An
upper-level trough centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska will
stretch southward into the North Pacific, serving as a hub for
several rotating shortwaves. While high pressure is expected to
dominate the Bering Sea through Sunday, the weather will shift by
Monday afternoon as an upper-level low arrives, bringing snow
showers to the western mainland.

Regarding local impacts, a tightening pressure gradient along the
coast will trigger intense winds through the gaps of the North
Gulf Coast. Additionally, strong northerly flow and cold air
advection will lead to gusty gap winds and frigid conditions
across the Alaskan Peninsula. Model guidance is generally in good
agreement in this pattern that will keep temperatures well below
seasonal norms for both South and Southcentral Alaska through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist through
the TAF period. The northerly winds are expected to increase this
evening in conjunction with colder air moving into the region.

&&


$$