Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

166
FXAK68 PAFC 220155
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 PM AKST Sat Feb 21 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The upper level pattern continues to show a northeast-southwest
oriented progressive tilt of an amplified ridge extending from
south of the Aleutians over the North Pacific into much of
mainland Alaska. In doing so, the main jet has shifted eastward,
weakening upper level support for strong winds and gap winds to
continue across Southcentral Alaska. At the surface, a strong 1040
mb high remains anchored across the Aleutians as a surface low in
the Gulf pulls away from the area, which in turn has weakened the
pressure gradient - and winds across Southcentral. The 500 mb
ridge`s influence over Southcentral will increase overnight and
through the rest of the short term by causing adiabatic warming
from sinking motion in the upper atmosphere. The sinking motion
combined with relatively breezy conditions will keep temperatures
warmer than they have been over the last few days. 850 mb
temperature anomalies suggest that much of mainland Alaska will be
well above average for this time of year through the end of the
short term forecast period.

Attention then shifts to Monday morning, where the sharp ridging
aloft begins to deamplify and zonal flow becomes enhanced across
the region as a shortwave trough upstream of the region begins to
dig eastward with time. There are some differences in the models
in the progression of the shortwave. The NAM seems to be somewhat
of an outlier at this time as it wants to dig the shortwave faster
and is a bit more robust than the GFS, EC, and Canadian-NH. That
said, it does look likely that with this influx of energy that
Southcentral will see light snow return Tuesday morning.
Forecaster confidence does decrease closer to the event,
particularly for the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage area, and
Matanuska-Susitna valleys as some models show this more of a
situation of precipitation just clipping the area, with confidence
much higher that the Copper River Basin will see more widespread
snowfall from the system.

Looking ahead, the upper level pattern becomes characterized by a
deep upper level trough/low complex, spilling a colder airmass
over the region. At the surface, enhancement from the trough
develops a surface low somewhere over the northern Gulf, which
combined with higher pressure across the Interior, will cause gap
winds to return to the region.

-AM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A high amplitude ridge continues to stream cold, dry air over
Southwest Alaska. Meanwhile, an elongated surface front streams
moisture and elevated winds over the Western Aleutians.
Temperatures will trend warmer through the weekend for Southwest
AK as winds shift southerly tonight. Warmer air moving in aloft
over near-freezing surface temperatures will create favorable
conditions for freezing rain across the Kuskokwim Delta early
Monday morning through the evening. A wintry mix with freezing
rain is possible for the Bristol Bay region as well by Monday
afternoon. An Arctic trough will quickly dive over Southwest on
the backside of this frontal system, rushing in cold air and
transitioning precipitation to snow before drying out.
Temperatures will drop to the single digits in the Kuskokwim Delta
by Tuesday before all of Southwest drops even colder later in the
workweek.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The start of the longterm forecast begins with another vigorous
arctic trough digging through Southcentral Alaska into the Gulf on
Wednesday. Accompanied by below normal temperatures for this time
of year, the potential for both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska
to see temperatures at or below -20 degrees, gap winds will
return in earnest through all the usual locations. The Alaska
Peninsula, Kamishak Gap, Seward, Valdez, Thompson Pass and Kodiak
Island, can all expect to see gusty conditions. The question will
be where the upper level support sets up. Recent runs of the EC
and GFS are in better agreement bringing a vorticity maximum down
across the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. The GFS,
while similar, has the trough slightly further south and west. The
GFS would favor Kodiak Island being including in the stronger
northwesterly flow, while the EC would keep the core of strongest
winds just north and northeast of Kodiak Island. Regardless, gusty
gap winds are anticipated across the entirety of the gulf coast
on Wednesday, potentially lingering into Thursday and early
Friday.

Cooler temperatures will likely remain in place through early
Friday, before a warm up by the start of the weekend. Regarding
precipitation, generally dry conditions will prevail after an
initial round of light to moderate snow on Tuesday. A North
Pacific low and front stall just south of the Aleutian Chain by
Thursday and Friday, with high pressure over the Bering remaining
in place. The frontal system then gets picked up by the next North
Pacific low and redirected into the southern Gulf of Alaska
through Saturday.

BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Northerly winds will continue to diminish this evening,
becoming calm and variable tomorrow. VFR cigs and vis will
persist.

&&
$$