Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

095
FXAK68 PAFC 012347
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 PM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday evening)...

The upper-level pattern across Southcentral Alaska continues to
be quite messy with small scale features moving within very weak
flow. The forecast remains on track though for a few of these weak
upper disturbances to kick off some showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the next few afternoons. The lightning strike
threat today will remain across the Talkeetna Mountains and
portions of the northern and western Copper River Basin. A
stronger easterly wave will move across Southcentral for Thursday
with a greater coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The
greatest lightning threat will again be centered along the
Talkeetna Mountains.

Yet another upper-level wave will approach the Copper River Basin
from the north Friday afternoon with more lightning strikes
possible along the Western and Northern Copper Basin. Storm
coverage both today and Friday is expected to be less than
Thursday`s convective episode. Aside from the Copper Basin and
Talkeetna Mountains, expect relatively quiet and pleasant weather
across Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula the next couple of days.
The Matanuska Valley and Southern Susitna Valley will see some
showers during the Thursday and Friday afternoon time frames but
it will not be washout.

Kodiak Island will remain on the rainy side of the equation
through Thursday evening. Rounds of rain will move over the island
in association with the front and low center of a Bering system
that is poised to move across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) by
Thursday morning. Showers taper off overnight Thursday as the low
pulls farther east into the central Gulf of Alaska. Another
frontal system from a low in the eastern Bering will push its
front across the AKPEN and to Kodiak Island by Friday afternoon
resulting in another round of showers.

Now, on to what everyone has been waiting for: the forecast for
America`s 250th Birthday! The system that will bring rain to
Kodiak Island on Friday moves north through the Gulf on Saturday.
This will also send steady rain to areas north along the eastern
Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf Coast. There are still some
positional differences with respect to the surface and upper-level
lows for the 4th of July. However, despite the uncertainty in low
positioning, there is good confidence to say that the coast will
be wet with drier conditions inland. Expect the usual
afternoon/evening diurnally driven showers for inland locations.
Stay tuned to the forecast for updates as details become more
clear for the 4th of July time frame.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

A Bering front is bringing showers across Southwest Alaska
through this afternoon, with greatest coverage of rain activity
over the Greater Bristol Bay region. Scattered showers will
remain possible elsewhere, though activity is more likely to be
intermittent with much of the upper-level energy being directed
southeastward toward the western Gulf. Temperatures under the
areas of showers are cooler, with highs in the coastal Bristol
Bay areas in the low 50s. However, areas that see any clearing
will still warm into the upper 50s/lower 60s, primarily along the
northern fringe of the Kuskokwim Delta into the Kuskokwim Valley,
including Aniak, Sleetmute and Lime Village. Winds across
Southwest are generally light and variable with winds in the
Aleutians more consistently out of the West with the exiting low.
As the low exits, rainfall across the Aleutians will diminish,
until a new low approaches from the north Pacific Saturday
morning.

By Thursday afternoon, a low dropping out of the northern Bering
Sea will increase northwesterly winds across the eastern Bering.
This system will promote the redevelopment of rain showers across
Southwest, primarily along the coastline. Northwesterly gusty
winds to extend down to the eastern Aleutians/southern Alaska
Peninsula. Areas typically favoring channeled winds out of the
northwest such as King Cove may see gusty winds by the end of the
week, into the early weekend. For the interior Kuskokwim Delta and
Kuskokwim Valley, clearing on the northern side of the low may
create elevated chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
Thursday and Friday afternoons, with the best chances appearing to
be Friday afternoon.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A weak upper level low over the Gulf will bring clouds with
showers before exiting the region Sunday evening. Sunnier and
warmer weather for the rest of the week for southcentral Alaska.

A Bering low will remain stationary near Shemya then begin to
proceed eastward overnight Sunday. The progression is slowed by
an upper level ridge over the Bering Strait. The low reaches the
eastern Bering by Tuesday and tracks over the Alaska Peninsula
Wednesday, bringing clouds and showers in its path, including
Southwest Alaska.

-SS

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$