Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

803
FXAK68 PAFC 201349
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
549 AM AKDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Wednesday night)...

A series of shortwaves will propagate through Southcentral Alaska
today into tonight in the southwesterly flow aloft. The first one
is in the northeastern Copper River Basin and heading into the
Yukon. This wave helped bring in the advisory-level snowfall to
the southern slopes of the Alaska Range. With it moving out of the
area that advisory has been canceled.

The second wave can be seen on satellite imagery early this
morning over northern Cook Inlet. This is a weak wave and is
mainly just bringing some mid to high level clouds with snow
showers relegated to the Talkeetna and Chugach Mountains.

The third shortwave is entering southern Cook Inlet early this
morning and is a much stronger wave. This is the shortwave that
is expected to bring showers to the Kenai Peninsula by late
morning and to Anchorage and the Mat-Su this afternoon. With the
southerly surface winds persisting (though not as strong as
yesterday), the precipitation type should mainly be rain. However,
there is a chance for some snow to mix in this morning as well as
in heavier showers. There is also the potential for small hail in
these showers due to the low freezing level. The Anchorage ROAB
showed a freezing level of 1100 ft at 3 AM, but this is expected
to rise as the day progresses.

After this third shortwave moves through, the flow aloft will
shift more westerly for Tuesday which should bring a few breaks
in the clouds and less shower activity. However this will be short
lived as an atmospheric river will bring a return to wet and
windy conditions.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)...

Rain and snow showers will persist today across the southwestern
mainland as a series of upper-level disturbances moves in from the
Bering Sea. The expectation is for continued showery
precipitation across the area with westerly upslope enhancement
along the Western Alaska Range and Aleutian Range. This activity
will taper off through Tuesday morning as an upper-level shortwave
ridge begins building into the southwest mainland by then.
Despite the ridge moving in, expect another overcast day across
Southwest for Tuesday.

Attention then quickly turns to the next significant Bering Sea
system which is currently gathering strength just southeast of
Shemya this morning. This system will deepen further tonight and
Tuesday as it wraps in more cold air from Russia and remains
nearly stationary between Adak and Amchitka through early
Wednesday morning. As the system spins between Amchitka and Adak,
multiple frontal systems will be sent northward and eastward. The
first of which will be today through tonight with Adak and the
Pribilofs seeing light rain with the gustiest winds remaining
confined to Adak.

The second and more widespread frontal push of moisture will
arrive with moderate to heavy rain Tuesday morning to Adak and
Atka and will arrive to the Pribilofs and Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan
by late Tuesday morning to early Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday
afternoon, the storm strengthens to storm-force on the northern
periphery of the system just west of the Pribilofs. Heavy rain
moves to False Pass, King Cove, Cold Bay, and Sand Point by
Tuesday evening. Moisture also makes its presence known across
mainland Southwest Alaska also by Tuesday evening. The Kuskokwim
Delta and Nunivak Island could see a period of snow at the onset
of precipitation Tuesday evening before turning to rain overnight
Tuesday as warm air and southerly flow advance northward. Heavy
rain will not stay over the Alaska Peninsula too long as the
moisture corridor shifts east to Kodiak Island by Wednesday
morning with the Interior Kuskokwim Delta, Kuskokwim Valley, and
Bristol Bay continuing to see light to moderate rain at times
Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

The storm slowly pulls northeastward to the central Bering near
the Pribilof Islands by Thursday morning. Additional cold air gets
pulled southward into the western Bering from Russia on the
backside of the storm. Rain/snow showers are a good bet for Shemya
from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning as the unstable
airmass moves overhead. The Pribilofs will contend with an
additional round of rain or rain/snow mix Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning as showery conditions also persist across
mainland Southwest for that time period as well.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Unsettled conditions will likely persist across much of Alaska
through the upcoming week. A low over the southern Bering Sea will
move toward Nunivak Island by Thursday morning. South to
southwesterly flow with gusts up to 40 mph will move across
Kuskokwim Bay/Delta area. Concerns for coastal impacts is low due
to shorefast ice and some added protection from the expansive ice
flow over the eastern Bering Sea.

The accompanied front from the Bering low will move into the
western Gulf of Alaska, drawing with it a relatively deeper surge
of moisture. Coastal areas in the northern Gulf and Kodiak Island
and higher elevations of the Alaska Range will likely see the most
precipitation. Away from the coast, expect several days of mixed
precipitation to continue, including rain at lower elevations and
snow at higher elevations. Southeasterly flow will allow some
downsloping to the west of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

Model agreement decreases significantly late in the week, though
some semblance of a low continues to place a low in the southern
Bering Sea with southerly flow persisting into Southcentral. It is
probable that our overall pattern will not deviate much from what
we are already seeing, however, the details should become clear
with the timing of these key wind and precipitation features as we
approach the mid to late week timeframe.


&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...Gusty southerly winds will gradually diminish through the
day today, with peak gusts decreasing from 30 to 20 kts through
around 08Z. VFR conditions will likely prevail today, with only a
slight chance of briefly dipping into MVFR conditions with
passing showers this afternoon. Southerly winds will continue to
diminish, remaining light through tomorrow morning.

&&


$$