Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

183
FXAK68 PAFC 291246
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Wednesday evening)...

An upper low over the Kuskokwim Delta this morning will begin to
shift eastward into interior Alaska this afternoon. Moisture and
southwesterly flow downstream of the low will overspread
Southcentral with increasing clouds and rain chances as a result.
The greatest lift and moisture associated with the approaching low
will keep rain chances largely confined to along and north of the
Turnagain Arm, with rain chances further south beginning from the
Seward highway eastward into Prince William Sound. Thunderstorm
chances for Southcentral, which were advertised in earlier
forecasts, have been removed. The thinking being that increased
cloud cover and showers will limit the development of better
instability later in the day.

Another round of showers is forecast for Southcentral on Tuesday
as low pressure tracks from along the coast into the eastern Gulf.
Tuesday could be a few degrees cooler with the passage of the low.
Like Monday, thunderstorm chances are in question. If enough
clearing and instability develops, a few lightning strikes will
be possible for the Mat- Su Valleys, Anchorage, and the northern
Kenai Peninsula. The southern half of the Kenai looks to stay
mostly dry. Showers look to persist in the Copper Basin for
Wednesday as the rest of Southcentral looks dry. However, Kodiak
Island will begin to see more unsettled and showery conditions by
Wednesday as another low in the Bering Sea sends its front
eastward and across the island by Wednesday morning. As of now
precipitation looks to remain light across Kodiak Island for
Wednesday.

BL/DN/PA

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

The forecast remains on track. Two lows moving through the Bering
and Southwest Alaska will generally promote cloudy, breezier, and
cooler conditions. A weakening, vertically stacked, low pressure
system will transit across Southwest Alaska through tomorrow. The
upper level vorticity associated with this feature could bring
just enough lift for isolated thunderstorms over the interior
Kuskokwim Delta and Valley, with about a 10% chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. For Tuesday, a slight
warm-up for interior Southwest Alaska as the upper low continues
eastward and cloud cover diminishes behind it. By Wednesday
morning, the front of the next incoming low pressure system will
spread light rainfall across the Southwest coastline, pushing
inland through the day.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, stormier weather returns
as a North Pacific low and its front move in through mid-week.
Expect widespread rain and gales along the front. As the low
occludes and moves into the Bering Sea, expect another surge of
20-30 kt winds for Adak and Atka Tuesday and Wednesday on the
backside of the low.

-KC/CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

An active pattern looks to continue for the long term forecast.
Due to many smaller scale features moving in, there is some
uncertainty exactly where they will track. Wednesday will start
with shortwaves and fronts in the Bering causing elevated winds
and rainfall for the Aleutians and the Southwest Mainland.
Southcentral will see this troughing stretch into the Gulf of
Alaska. This would allow for rainfall, but there is uncertainty
on how quickly the troughing will move into the Gulf of Alaska.
This means that rainfall in Southcentral could be delayed if the
troughing moves in slower. Things become more uncertain Thursday
through Saturday as more features move in. The current thinking is
that a ridge will set up in the Bering by Friday, where it will
remain through Saturday. Meanwhile, a larger low will move into
the Gulf of Alaska, bringing rainfall to the Southwest and
Southcentral Mainlands, including Kodiak Island. As for
thunderstorms, it seems like convective potential will be low
through next week, so storm potential is low for now.

-JAR


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...There is a chance (20 to 30 percent) for showers over the
terminal late Monday morning through Monday afternoon. Southerly
winds gusting to 20 kt expected to continue through this evening.

&&


&&$$