Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

180
FXAK68 PAFC 151322
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 AM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Friday)...

An upper level ridge has shifted east compared to this time
yesterday, now over the Gulf and Southcentral. This is keeping
much of the region under the influence of zonal flow near the
crest of the flat ridge for the time being. Looking upstream, a
fast-moving shortwave trough over Southwest is speeding quickly
west towards the Alaska Range, with plenty of mid to upper level
cloud cover already spilling across the mountains into the Cook
Inlet, Kenai Peninsula and Mat-Su regions. A quick round of light
snow along a decaying frontal system moving in tandem with the
trough has just recently made it past Kodiak Island, but the rest
of Southcentral is still staying dry for the moment.

A shift towards a cloudier, wetter and overall more unsettled
pattern will take shape over the next few days as a series of
shortwave disturbances move northeast from the Pacific and Bering
Sea around the ridge in place over the Gulf. The leading shortwave
currently over Southwest will move across Southcentral from west
to east today. This feature will send a quick round of light
precipitation first across the Cook Inlet and Mat-Su Valleys late
this morning into the early afternoon, then out towards much of
the Copper Basin later in the day. Given the timing, precipitation
could start as snow, but will likely mix with rain as
temperatures warm into the upper 30s to low 40s during the
afternoon hours. The best chance for measurable snowfall will be
focused over the mountains, with little to no accumulation
expected over valleys closer to sea level through this evening.

From tonight into Thursday morning, the main upper ridge will
amplify temporarily and build back into eastern parts of
Southcentral and towards the AlCan border as flow begins to shift
more out of the southwest with time. The next system will begin to
move up past Kodiak Island early Thursday as a front tied to a
Bering low moves up into the southwestern Gulf. The spread in
timing for this next frontal system as it heads northeast into
Southcentral has improved with the latest model guidance, and it
now looks like the next round of more widespread rain/snow will
arrive in most spots late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening. A coastal ridge building out ahead of the front will
likely support southerly gap winds in the usual spots on Thursday
afternoon, including through the Turnagain Arm, Knik Valley and
Copper River Valley. Temperatures close to sea level will again be
warm enough for a rain/snow mix initially as the next round of
precipitation begins, with a transition to mainly snow overnight
on Thursday night.

By Friday, the upper portion of the low moving into Southwest will
open up into a trough, shifting east and becoming negatively-
tilted as it heads into the western parts of the outlook area by
Friday evening. This will extend steady precipitation into at
least Friday evening, especially where southerly flow ahead of the
trough enhances the intensity over south-facing slopes of the
Chugach Range, Kenai Mountains and Alaska Range. Accumulating
snowfall will be most notable through mountain passes, with
around 6 inches of total snowfall possible near Paxson and around
7 inches through Thompson Pass between Thursday morning and Friday
afternoon. A generally unsettled, wet and fall-like pattern will
likely continue into the upcoming weekend.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3:)...

Currently, a series of shortwaves is passing through the Bering.
This is allowing for widespread mixed precipitation across the
Bering and the Southwest Mainland. Cooler air in the Southwest
Mainland will allow for snowfall to continue for a bit longer. 1
to 2 inches of additional snowfall is expected over the Kuskokwim
regions and Bristol Bay through Thursday. Continued shortwaves
will allow for precipitation chances over the mainland to linger
through Friday. The Bering will see precipitation chances dwindle
by Thursday as a ridge sets up. Though a stronger shortwave will
cause small craft winds in the western Aleutians through
Wednesday, winds across Southwest Alaska will generally be sub-
small craft in the Bering and weaker over the mainland through
Thursday.

A strong North Pacific Low rises into the Western Aleutians on
Friday. Storm force winds as well as a period of mixed
precipitation and rainfall are expected to impact the Adak region.
The low will move northeastward through the Bering, spreading a
large swath of precipitation over the weekend. Gale force winds
will move into the rest of the Aleutians as well as the Pribilof
Islands through Saturday. A small period of blowing snow may
impact the Pribilof Islands early Saturday before temperatures
warm. There are still uncertainties regarding the exact strength
and track of this low, so changes in the forecast are likely as
the low approaches.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

An active patter will persist from Friday through Monday as a
broad low-pressure system remains anchored over the Bering Sea. A
strong North Pacific storm moving into the region on Friday will
bring heavy rain and gale-force winds to the Western and Central
Aleutians, while moisture spreads across Southcentral Alaska,
maintaining cloudy skies and precipitation through Saturday.

By Sunday and into Monday, the system will pull cooler air back
into the region, likely turning precipitation into a rain-snow mix
for the Alaskan Peninsula and Southwest coast. While specific
timing remains a little uncertain, the overall pattern suggests
continued unsettled weather for both Southcentral and Southwest
Alaska with temperatures hovering near seasonal averages.

-DD


&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...Clouds above 5000 ft roll back in this morning. Ceilings
will occasionally dip into MVFR starting early afternoon. Light
mixed precipitation will be possible late morning through early
evening.

-PA

&&


$$